嘉宾访谈·中文精读

Bending Spoons CEO 卢卡·法拉利:4 万美元起家、收购产品市场契合与私募股权为何无法竞争

Luca Ferrari, Bending Spoons CEO: The $40K Origin Story, Buying Product-Market Fit & Why Private Equity Can't Compete

卢卡·法拉利谈从 4 万美元重启到收购产品市场契合,内部技术栈与精简团队,债务作为加速器,以及在米兰打造科技巨头。

官方音频00:00 / --:--

本期章节点时间可跳到音频对应位置

  1. 0:00卢卡·费拉里做客好友团!
  2. 1:56搞砸 AI 创业、4 万美元重启及买下产品市场契合
  3. 4:59内部技术栈、缩编团队及 10 分制标准
  4. 9:55债务作为加速器、利率上升会怎样及还有谁在竞标
  5. 14:58交易台内幕:什么会被收购、为何他们不自建及创始人之问
  6. 20:22在米兰打造科技巨头、欧洲的人才池与外来者优势
中文精读由 AI 基于原始节目改写,非官方翻译,可能存在偏差或错误;观点归属与表述以原音频与官方文稿为准。说明

Bending Spoons 现在的市值大概 400 亿美元。起点是 2013 年的一笔 4 万美元种子资金,而这 4 万美元还是上一家公司崩盘后 VC 剩下的钱。

创始人卢卡·法拉利(Luca Ferrari)在 All-In 这期节目里把整条路径讲得很清楚:他们不擅长找到 product-market fit,所以干脆花钱去买。买到之后,把对方的技术底座整个拆掉,换上自己那套跑了十几年的引擎,再用一支极小、极贵的团队重新做一遍。

这套打法在传统行业里被验证过很多次,Amphenol、Roper、Danaher、伯克希尔都是这么滚起来的。科技行业一直没人做成,法拉利认为原因是结构性的,跟聪明程度无关。

崩掉的 AI 公司和那笔 4 万美元

2010 年,法拉利和联合创始人在米兰做了一家 AI 公司。这个时间点太早了,三年后公司崩盘。清算时账上还剩大约 4 万美元。

VC 的选择很实际:走完清算流程,律师费和各种麻烦加起来不划算。他们看着这几个年轻人干了三年,于是说,钱你们留着,股份按名义价 1 美元卖给你们,去度个假吧。

我们显然脑子有点问题,所以拿着这笔钱,热情洋溢地把它变成了 Bending Spoons 的种子轮。(法拉利)

这段经历留下的不只是 4 万美元。三年硬碰硬的工程、设计、变现、营销训练,让他们在能力上有了明确的自我认知:找 PMF 不是强项,运气成分也很大,但把已有产品的工程质量和变现效率做到世界前列,是可以练出来的。

于是策略从第一天就定了型,而且十几年没变过:别人擅长从 0 到 1,他们擅长从 1 到 10,那就花钱把 1 买过来。

第一笔收购:1 万美元买一个没变现的键盘 App

2013 年的第一笔交易,价格大约 1 万美元。标的是一个 iPhone 键盘个性化 App,卖方是一个人开发者,产品几乎没做变现,收入可以忽略。

那买的是什么?用户,以及在 App Store 里的位置。位置意味着持续的免费新增用户流入。团队接手后把代码全部重写了一遍。

这套逻辑后来放大了一万倍,内核没变:找好品牌、好用户基础、好客户群,用自己的能力把资产做得更值钱。区别只在于今天的标的变成了 AOL、Vimeo、Eventbrite、Airtable、Miro。

50 多项自研技术,收购后直接换心脏

Bending Spoons 的核心团队现在约 800 人,其中大约四分之三是工程师、研究员、产品设计师和产品经理。大部分工作不是管理,是造东西。

他们内部有一句话叫「质量与操作系统」,包含 50 多项自研技术,覆盖 AI 模型编排、招聘工具、AB 测试平台、财务、HR、技术运营、DevOps,基本什么都管。

收购一家公司之后,他们会把这家公司的技术底座整个替换成自己那一套。带来的直接结果是两边的人跑在同一套规则上,协作成本大幅下降。集中采购云服务和各种授权确实能省钱,但法拉利说得很直白,这块只贡献一两个百分点的 EBITDA 利润率,真正值钱的是产品、技术和变现带来的收入增长。

80% 的团队是可以砍掉的吗

早期收购小业务时,卖方通常只卖产品不卖团队,本来就是几个人的作坊,作者想去做下一个项目。Bending Spoons 只能自己组建团队接手,而搭出来的队伍比原团队小得多。

后来开始买带成熟团队的公司,问题出现了:他们按照运营同类业务的经验搭的团队规模,远远小于对方现有的编制,而且说不清对方为什么需要这么多人。

怎么找到那个临界点?靠反复试。法拉利没有给一个公式,只给了一个标准:他们要求每块业务都跑到 10 分(10 out of 10)的水平,而他们发现极小团队加上极高的人才门槛、加上明确的 ownership,更容易达到这个水平。

这解释了外界看到的「裁员」。它不是为了省成本做的减法,是先设定了质量目标,然后倒推出需要多少人。

9% 的债务成本,2.5 倍杠杆,2031 年到期

2017 或 2018 年,Bending Spoons 开始用债务。最初是普通的银行贷款(TLA),后来是杠杆贷款(TLB)。从第一天起,自由现金流几乎 100% 再投入收购。

IPO 时他们的融资额小得反常:只融了大约 5 亿美元的 primary equity,估值约 200 亿美元,而这 5 亿基本是上市前六个月内融的。也就是说,十几年的成绩单几乎全靠自由现金流再投资加债务做出来。

关于利率风险,法拉利的回答很具体。当前债务的混合成本约 9%,完全对冲,2031 年到期,杠杆约 2.5 倍,而且按现在的现金流状况,到期前完全有能力还清。存量债务不受加息影响。

增量债务会变贵,但他认为在多数情形下这是净利好。

我们历史上的杠杆回报一直很高,持续高于 25%,这还是在没有加杠杆的基础上。所以 9% 还是 12%,我当然更想付 9%,但这不破坏模型。另一个方面是,利率上升时资产价格通常下跌,作为连续收购方,我们从估值下降里得到的好处,大概率超过债务变贵的损失。(法拉利)

拍卖桌上已经挤满了人

竞争的问题,法拉利的说法比外界想象的坦诚:几乎所有他们参与过的流程,都有其他买家。

但天平的一个砝码在变轻。私募股权在软件领域募到的钱比历史上更少,能参与竞标的资金总量在收缩。竞争可能加剧,也可能减弱,他不装确定。

他真正的护城河论证是复制成本:那 50 多项技术不是能一夜之间写出来的东西,更麻烦的是,没走过那些年的试错,你连该造什么都不知道。800 人是一批一批挑出来的,第一年一个人,然后两个人,四个人。

你可能五年能做到,但两个月不行。(法拉利)

交易桌上到底在筛什么

进 deal desk 之前,先过三道定性筛子。

第一是规模。深度整合和彻底改造需要巨大的运营投入,而这个投入并不随收入线性增长。做一百笔小交易,不如做少数几笔大交易。

第二是盈利的可预测性。他们要求至少能看清未来五六年的方向,模糊的不碰。

第三是价值创造空间。技术、组织、产品、变现、营销,五个维度里最好能命中多个。

那客户层面的协同呢?比如在 AOL 上给 Vimeo、Eventbrite、Miro 卖广告,或者用 Vimeo 的销售团队去卖 AOL 的广告位。法拉利承认这块历史上几乎没创造什么价值,勉强算帮了 3%。原因是过去组合不够大,好的重叠压根没出现。现在 Airtable 和 Miro 都对企业客户有强吸引力,这可能变成一个新的价值维度。

既然设计、工程、产品管理、AI 编排、AB 测试的能力都齐了,为什么不自己也从零做产品?

你不能什么都做。埃隆可以,我和我的同事们不觉得我们可以,也许我们应该对自己更狠一点。(法拉利)

更现实的理由是分母。含 Miro 在内,按 pro forma 算公司已经接近 40 亿美元收入的 run rate,在这个体量上,能真正推动增长的新产品比例小得可怜,投入产出算不过来。

他们不要创始人,要的是「更好的家」

硅谷的主流叙事是创始人权威不可替代。Bending Spoons 的逻辑完全反过来。

他们买的公司大多有 10 年、20 年甚至更长的历史。创始人在这个节点上,往往把出售当成一个章节的结束,想往下走。法拉利不否认如果创始人愿意留下来拼命,十次里有九次是巨大的加分项,但这不是交易成立的前提。

我们赢的定义是:这家公司在我们的手里,比在前一任所有者手里更好。哪怕创始人本来就打算离开,哪怕它留在原股东手里最终也会失去创始人。(法拉利)

他也点出一个从外部能观察到的规律:处于饱和期的公司,对那些最有创业冲劲的工程师和设计师吸引力会下降。所以可以合理假设,接手的团队质量不错,但不太可能和 Anthropic 那种级别的团队比。

这也正是他们能吸引人的地方。同一位雇主、同一批同事、同一套文化,一年时间重建 AOL 的邮件基础设施,接下来七个月重做 Vimeo 的订阅体系,然后再去搭一套支付平台。这种技术视野的宽度,在别处很难同时拿到。

80 万份申请,招不到 300 人

去年 Bending Spoons 收到 80 万份申请,最终录用不到 300 人。高人才密度本身会吸引更高的人才密度。

米兰仍然是最大的人才池,历史原因。伦敦上升最快,马德里即将开始招人,明年开始在美国招。他们强调自己是彻底国际化的公司。

谈到欧洲,法拉利的判断两头都很硬。欧洲问题很多,但人才不差:五亿人口,教育扎实,虽然不是斯坦福,但够用。很多人身上有一股劲,想证明自己不比别人差。

至于意大利人不努力工作的说法,他直接否定。他的观察是,收购之后引入的自家团队,往往比原团队干得更狠更久。招人的标准是内在驱动、野心、饥渴、创业精神,然后给他们一个值得干的理由。

为什么私募股权复制不了这套

这是整期节目里最有解释力的一段。法拉利认为传统 PE 和他们不是同一个物种,差异是结构性的,不是能力问题。

PE 的模型是把收购来的公司相对独立地持有,然后卖掉。这带来两个死结。

第一,技术底座插不进去。一旦把被收购公司接到统一的技术平台上,将来卖给另一家 PE 时怎么办?把平台授权给对方?

第二,共享团队用不了。把工程师和设计师派进一家公司,卖掉的时候团队是跟着走还是留下来?跟着走,公司几乎空了;留下来,买方买到的是一具空壳。

所以 PE 永远无法拥有一个共享的工程与设计中枢,也就永远拿不到那部分回报。它能募集更多钱,因为模式更放手,但回报率的结构上限摆在那里。

法拉利还提到一个地理上的解释。查尔斯·科赫在威奇托建起了世界上最 extraordinary 的全资企业之一,靠的是不理会行业惯例。Bending Spoons 在米兰,同样没有被硅谷的思维定式浸泡过。

在我们这一代人的记忆里,传统行业有大量公司跑过这套剧本,Amphenol、Roper、Danaher、伯克希尔。科技行业从来没有成功案例,Expedia 试过,巴里·迪勒试过,有点复杂。所以看到这件事真的能成,非常令人兴奋。核心结构性问题一直是:这些现金流能不能被承销?你正在证明它们可以,而且可以承销七八九年。(查马斯)

最值得记的一点在这里。PE 眼下的普遍状态是看不清局势,交易节奏放慢,而 Bending Spoons 还在按自己的节奏宣布交易。差距不在于谁更敢借钱,在于谁有能力在买下资产之后真的把它改造一遍。

  • 如果你在做并购或投资,先把「买来之后能改变什么」量化出来。法拉利的三道筛子里,规模决定改造投入能否被摊薄,可预测性决定你敢不敢上杠杆,价值创造空间决定回报上限。缺一条就别出价。
  • 如果你在运营一家增长放缓的公司,别只盯着增长曲线。审视团队规模是不是历史惯性堆出来的,先定质量目标,再倒推人头,而不是反过来。
  • 如果你在选职业路径,把「技术视野的宽度」当成一项可交易的资产。同一雇主下连续接手不同技术栈的重建工作,比在单一产品上待五年更能积累稀缺性。
  • 如果你在看欧洲科技公司,别用硅谷的模板套。人才密度、教育供给、那股证明自己的动力是真实存在的,缺的是能把工程能力组织成资本的操盘手。
  • 如果你关注利率,记住法拉利那个反向逻辑:对净买方来说,资产价格下跌的收益可能超过债务成本上升的损失。关键是你有没有能力在价格下跌时还在场,并且能把买来的东西做值钱。
文稿由本站用语音识别模型(Whisper,基于官方发布音频)机器转写,可能有识别错误,没有说话人标注;人名与数字请以音频为准。
(00:00:00) You are the reason that Nasdaq exists. They went from zero to $1 billion in revenue in just 10 years. Bending Spoons CEO Luca Ferrari. We have never lost a bid before. Well, AOL has a new parent again. Milan-based tech company Bending Spoons announced it will buy ticketing platform Eventbrite. Bending Spoons is stirring up the market. They go from fixing one zombie app to reviving 20 of them. Half a billion people use our products. We're trying to build a generational company. Please welcome Luca Ferrari. Hey, here he is. Nice to see you. Ciao Luca. (00:00:46) Ciao Luca! You got fans. All right, Luca. Andiamo Luca! You have a great company. Don't make fun of Luca Ferrari. I'm not, I'm just... This is a great Italian entrepreneur, so shut the f*** up. Absolutely. Absolutely. Luca, I asked you for Meloni to call you. No, I got somebody yelling like it's Super Mario Brothers in the audience. We could have another presidential moment here at the All In Podcast. So if she picks it, if she calls you, then just run the phone over. Got my phone here. Okay, just in case. Yeah, it's ready. I mean, there's a lot of us that have actually been tracking you for a while. Um, I originally heard about you because you were in Milano, where, you know, my wife's family is from. Uh, and you had this incredibly progressive, methodical approach to growth. (00:01:31) You did this fantastic, um, podcast with, um, uh, Patrick O'Shaughnessy, which was great. I encourage all of you to listen to it. And you explained, uh, the arc of Bending Spoons. And I'd love for you to explain to folks the first few years and just all the misery and failure, the, the nadir of the company, and then the beginning of the ascent. Yeah. So the, you know, most of the, I mean, the pain, there's been plenty of pain throughout for most entrepreneurs, I think, but the, the, the biggest failures were in the previous startup. So with my co-founders, we launched, uh, an AI company in 2010, very early, too early, clearly, uh, uh, crashed and burned, um, three years later, uh, we're left with about, uh, (00:02:18) $40,000 in, uh, capital we'd raised from the VC. And, um, um, um, we, you know, clearly there wasn't a lot to salvage other than our relationship being stronger, uh, and, uh, and, and that money that the VC, uh, pretty much, uh, uh, gifted to us as they, you know, didn't want to go through the liquidation process too, too much, uh, in legal fees and too many headaches. They had seen us work pretty hard. Uh, and so they told us, you guys keep it, we'll sell our shares to you for $1, like, uh, nominal value and you go and get a nice vacation. Uh, we're clearly a little bit sick in the head and so we took the money and enthusiastically turned it into, uh, seed financing for Benny's Fools and, and, and we, you know, we came up with this. (00:03:04) 40,000 exactly in, uh, 2013 and we, we had this strategy, which has remained pretty much the same. Obviously you get smarter, you refine it in time. Uh, that was, the idea was we, we are not very good at finding product market fit or maybe, you know, luck plays a big role. Probably both things are true, uh, but we have become pretty good at engineering, uh, design, monetization, marketing in just three years of hard work. And so we should be able to be among the best in the world at that and we should be able to buy product market fit from people and, uh, and, uh, and, you know, they get a good price. We get a good asset. We can make more valuable and then, uh, we, we deploy more capital into making our, our platform. What was the first acquisition and how much did you pay and how did you get the deal? So the first acquisition, uh, was, uh, we paid $10,000 give or take, and it was a, (00:03:54) um, a mobile app for iPhone specifically. That you used to personalize your, your keyboard. Very simple. One, uh, one, uh, uh, man, uh, kind of developer, uh, sold it to us, uh, obviously a very amateurish operation, not that difficult at the time to, to make it better and more successful. Uh, but you know, What were you buying? Like you're buying one times revenue, you were buying the revenue, you were buying the app, like that one specifically, I think had a negligible revenue. It wasn't even really monetized, which of course is never the case for, for scale businesses. But it had users. It had users. So what we bought at the time was, uh, an app with a bunch of users and a good positioning on the app stores. So they, it would get an influx of new users. Um, and that's, you know, remained broadly speaking similar over time. (00:04:43) And, you know, we keep looking for great brands, user and customer bases, or we can, uh, uh, you know, improve everything ideally and make those assets even more valuable over, over time. We just do it at a much bigger scale these days, but the, the underlying concepts have not changed. Did you rebuild that app? Did you take over the code base and redo it? Just help us understand technically what's going on in the organization from that business through to some of the bigger ones today. Yeah. Is it a, is it a code business? Are you, are you doing engineering product design marketing all of the above? Yeah. Most of what we do is, is engineering and product. We have a core team of this point about 800 people. And, uh, I would say probably three quarters of them are other engineers or, yeah, researchers (00:05:29) or product designers, product managers. Most of what we do is actually improving technologies and products. Uh, and, uh, and of course, you know, that, yes, that app, we, we wrote it completely and, but it's very early days today. We're much more sophisticated. We, we, what we do is we, we bring in a quality and operating system of 50 plus proprietary technologies. We've built, uh, kind of an engine to run technology businesses very effectively and efficiently and really our core product. We swap out the technological foundation of the businesses we buy with that one so we can run it much better. And also the, uh, the people we transition across our various businesses always play by the same rules. They're more efficient cause they find the same. And so these tools cut across what? Like HR, finance, tech ops, dev ops. (00:06:14) Pretty much everything. Yeah. I mean, orchestration of AI models check, recruiting tools check, AB testing platform. It's the coolest. And then do you bring all of the technology spend up to the top coast so that you're doing one deal with AWS, one, all the licensing becomes scaled across one entity? Yeah. That's a, that's a lever for quality creation. I'd say that's a relatively small one. It probably adds, I don't know, one, two percentage points in EBITDA margins. Uh, uh, the, you know, the more important aspects are being able to drive revenue increases through better product tech and monetization, sometimes marketing, uh, cost reduction through linear teams of more talent dense teams. Uh, and, but yes, vendor optimization is, is helpful. You were doing the Elon X playbook before he did it. I mean, like there's some stories that were written about how you right-sized Vimeo's workforce. (00:07:00) You right-sized the bright. He called me before doing the X, uh, no, I'm joking. Oh, he did. Oh no. Okay. Uh, advice. But explain, explain how do I cut all the people? No, no, he didn't do that. I don't know Elon. So. Luca, how did you figure out that you could cut 80% of a team and it still works? How do you figure that out? Is that accidental where you just, I think pushing to a threshold? I think it's a, it's something we, we learned, uh, partially because early, early days when we were acquiring smaller businesses, typically these people would sell us the assets, say the product, but not the team. Cause for them, it was very small teams. They, you know, wanted to move on to whatever other project they had. And so we didn't really know any better. We were establishing teams internally to carry on the work. (00:07:45) And the number of FDs was much smaller than the original foot. No, no, no. Well also that, but then when we ended up buying businesses with established teams, we had perhaps naively built teams to run comparable businesses that were much smaller. And so we couldn't explain why you necessarily needed more people partly. Yes. Uh, through experimentation, uh, we have found, uh, call it the sweet spot. Obviously it's never perfect, but we, we, well, overall at city, the, the key thing for us is we want our businesses to be, you know, run at a 10 out of 10 level. And we find that generally you're more likely to get that, uh, that level of performance. If you have very, very small teams, super high bar for talent and sense of ownership. You have a 40 odd billion dollar market cap ish right now. I think plus or minus. Um, I don't know, actually. (00:08:30) I haven't checked the ticker since we IPO. I think it's roughly, roughly in that zone. Um, which is incredible from starting with the $10,000 acquisition. When do you trend? When did you transition from, uh, scaling on cashflow to then using debt and using more sophisticated financial engineering? So you can go after these bigger fish and how, how is it? So historically, uh, we, we, we started using debt in 2017, I believe, either 2017 or 2018, uh, very basic bank loans, TLA's. And then, um, as we, and so free cashflow, the reinvestment of free cashflow had always been a thing for us. We have redeployed pretty much a hundred percent of our free cashflow toward acquisitions, uh, since the beginning, uh, that from 2017 and, you know, and, and it was rescaled. (00:09:17) We got more credible, a little bit wiser and more sophisticated. We went for, you know, TLBs and maybe in the future, there'll be bond issuances and other more complex instruments. We haven't used a whole lot of equity. Actually, when we IPO'd, we had only quote unquote, only raised the about half a billion dollar in primary equity. Uh, and we were at roughly 20 billion in valuation. And even that half a billion dollar, we had raised pretty much all of it in the previous six months or so. So, so almost all of our track record we've achieved through reinvestment of free cash flows and debt. But going forward, I think particularly as a public company using equity tactically here and there could be a good, good idea. So with that equity, um, you're taking loans, I guess, uh, five, six points over LIBOR. So 10%, 12% loans. (00:10:04) And then you buy a business like Airtable, but that, that means you have to pay a hundred million dollars in debt payments per year. If interest rates go up and it's a 90 some odd chance they're going to start going up. What does that do with the business? Does it throttle a little bit? And then my second question, people have been pretty enamored by the progress you're making. Uh, and I think you're now facing, uh, some bending spoons competitors. So maybe you could talk, are you seeing more people show up at these auctions and it's not just you and like two other players? Yeah. So, um, that is an, an accelerant to our growth. Uh, we would still grow up pretty fast if we only use free cash flows, but our free cash flows, but definitely being able to use that is, is a good thing. (00:10:49) Uh, prudent levels of debt. And, and, and I would say, uh, I will give you like two parts. Uh, first the risk with the existing in debtness is all of our debt. Currently the, the, the average cost, the blended cost is about 9%. Give or take and it's fully hedged. So increases in, in, uh, interest rates would not impact our cost of debt. Uh, it matures in 2031. So we are in a position to pay, paid back completely before maturity. We're currently at two and a half times leverage approximately. Now, if, uh, interest rates were to go up substantially, then new debt would be, would be more expensive. Um, I think that would be under most scenarios, a net positive for us for a couple of reasons. Our returns on levered historically have been pretty high. Consistently above 25%. (00:11:35) Again, unlevered. So what do we pay 9% or 12%? Of course I'd rather pay nine, but it's not, it doesn't break the model. Uh, and, uh, you know, and the second aspect is typically when interest rates go up, the value of, uh, of, of, of assets goes down. And so as a serial acquirer, I think we're more likely to benefit more from the lower valuations than the higher debt. Now that depends. I'm generalizing and simplifying a bit, but, uh, overall we feel we are fairly well protected, um, and, you know, robust when it comes to, to indebtedness. When it comes to competition for acquisitions, um, we have all of the processes we have participated in, have had other, other buyers or almost all of them. Um, I'm sure competition will intensify or I'm sure it may intensify. Who knows? (00:12:20) Um, it could also get weaker. We're seeing private equities, web historically down software actually raised less capital to do the same. And so on balance, we may be better off. It's also, I think important to note that it's, it's really painful and time consuming to replicate what we've built. Cause a lot of it is based on, you know, those technologies which you can't build overnight. You don't even know what to build really. If you haven't gone through many years of painful experimentation, mistakes, try and repeat. Um, you, a lot of the value we create is thanks to those $800 people. We have painstakingly selected over time, the culture of high performance and a scientific approach to business. The business we have developed, those things are, there's no shortcut. I still remember hiring the first one person and then two people and then four people. (00:13:05) You could probably do it in five years rather than 13, but not in two months. So I think we will face competition, but I'm pretty optimistic. If I may, um, in our industry, the venture capital industry, and even going into public markets, we covet the founder. And if a company loses its founder and the founder authority, they have like Elon to say, hey, we're not going to make the model X. We're not going to make the model X. We're going to convert those to optimists. Those kind of bold bets only made by founders. You have a slightly different philosophy here. You don't want founders inside the company. You're not looking for that founder authority in each of these brands based on what I've heard you say. Um, so what is the expectation for your brands? Do you want to create cutting edge, you know, version twos of event rights and Vimeo, or do you just want them to grow at a predictable rate and throw off that cash flow? (00:13:55) So talk about the founder role. Yeah. So I think if you can have a founder with that, you know, level of, uh, of passion and, and that mentality is, you know, nine times out of 10 will be a major net positive. Uh, the generally when we end up acquiring companies, these are businesses that have been around for 10, 20 years, even more than 20 years in some cases. And, and for the founders, if they're still on board, sometimes they aren't on board for them, it's really a moment of, okay, this is a chapter on closing. I'm going to move on. So the, the, the real question there for, for us, we win. If that business does better with us than it would have under previous ownership. Uh, obviously if we could have, uh, exceptional founders stay on board and pour their hearts into it, it would be even better, but we can still do well by being a better home for that business. (00:14:45) Then that business staying with the same, uh, ownership group and maybe losing the founder anyway. Um, so it's not that we don't want founders, but once, you know, companies are sold that people are generally looking to move on. Can you bring us into the M and a deal desk? So like in the room, walk us through your screening process. Are we, how do we, how are we doing this? What are we looking for? Are we looking for synergy and integration with the assets that we've bought before? Are we looking purely at cashflow? How do we stack rank these things? Just walk us through the deal desk. Yeah. So I think there's a qualitative criteria we use to, uh, slim down the long list of businesses that would be interesting targets. Uh, one is scale. We, that process of very deep integration, uh, and, and, and profound transformation takes a lot of operational effort. (00:15:32) So we can do a million of these. And by the way, the amount of time and effort it takes to transform a business we've found, it doesn't really scale linearly with revenue. So we're much better off acquiring relatively few sizable companies than a million. A million small ones. So we like, we look for scale. We look for predictability in, uh, in earnings and it's a big topic in and of itself, but we like businesses where we are pretty confident. We can project there at least, you know, the next five or six years directionally. Um, and then we look for businesses where we can create a lot of value. It could be technology, org, uh, product monetization, marketing, ideally most of these. Does value include the integration with these other assets that you have or value just means economic value operation? Well, let me just ask a detailed point of that. Like if you own AOL, you could put ads for Vimeo or Eventbrite or Miro on AOL. (00:16:20) Um, if you own Vimeo, you could probably have a sales team that's selling ads on AOL that you can use. How much synergistic effect is there? And if there is synergistic effect and you've got all this capacity to do design, build, product management, agentic orchestration, testing, AB testing, why not also build organically at the same time and leverage the network effects of the existing devices? So historically we have created almost no value from, let's say customer facing synergies, what you described, uh, plenty of behind the scenes synergies. Like I said, it's all built on the same technological foundations. And then there's this large core team of people. We move around fluidly, uh, going forward. And by the way, the reason why we haven't unlocked a lot of value through customer facing synergies is being that, um, we, I think the portfolio wasn't necessarily large enough for good overlaps to materialize. (00:17:14) But as it grows more and more, for example, now Airtable and Miro are both quite appealing to a lot of enterprises. I think what you are describing could become an additional value creation, uh, uh, dimension. You haven't tried or you've tried and it hasn't worked? No, we have, we've tried and it's worked with marginally. So maybe it's helped, uh, 3%, but now like the bulk of it has been bringing 10 out of 10 excellence in operations, product monetization, uh, technology. Look away on an individual business basis. And then why not build organically products? Yeah. So, uh, the, first of all, you can't do everything. I mean, Elon can, I, I, you know, my colleagues, colleagues and I, uh, we don't think we can. Maybe we should be more ambitious with ourselves, but, um, and so. (00:18:00) You've got a lot on your plate. Yeah. There's so many different kinds of products already. We, we launched a lot of new things on top of existing brands, but it's not like completely radical innovation. We don't do a lot of that. We try to stay focused on, on one thing to try to be the very best in the world at it. Also at the scale we are at, at this point, we're, you know, on a pro forma with Miro close to a run rate of $4 billion in revenue. It's difficult. Like if you look at the percentage of new startups or products being launched that would move the needle, it's, it's very, very small. So what's the, you know, we would have to deploy a lot of our resources and very unlikely to work. And you can, sorry, let me just, can you just talk about the thing you and I talked about this, um, point on the talent exodus that happens in Silicon Valley companies when they start to stall out. (00:18:46) And that the talent maybe that's working on the business isn't the quality of the talent that you've built in your, your core platform. How much of that is assessed in that M and a process that you might was mentioning? Uh, well, it's, it's, I mean, it's difficult to assess from the outside in, but you can form, uh, uh, first principles, opinions, businesses that again are more in a saturation phase. They tend not to be as appealing to some of the most entrepreneurial engineers or designers. Um, and so you can assume that the level of talent will be maybe good, but perhaps not, you know, anthropic would have, um, not saying anything shocking here. Uh, a very unique kind of talent, but we'll talk about that another time. Yeah. Okay. Uh, we, we have a big advantage in attracting talent because if you work at Benis films, it may be one of the very few places in the world where you can spend, say one year rebuilding the, uh, email infrastructure for AOL and then seven months helping, uh, rethink, uh, subscriptions on, on Vimeo and then build a platform technology to manage payments all with the same employer, mostly the same colleagues, same culture. (00:19:48) You get broad technical scope. Exactly. So career opportunities, just stay motivated because it's fun and new. Yeah. Uh, very high talent density begets high talent density. So there is an element of your two cycles. So we have been able to attract some people last year, 800,000 applications. We hired fewer than 300 people. Are they all in Milan? Where are they? No, no, we, we are fully, you know, very international as a company. Milan for historical reasons remains like the biggest, uh, pool of, of talent, but, uh, London, for example, is coming up faster. Madrid will, will be hiring people, plenty of people in the States, I think starting, starting next year. Brings up an interesting question. Um, Europe as a tech center, um, isn't exactly, um, something that venture capitalists, even late stage, uh, investors are pursuing. (00:20:33) And they kind of look at the market there as maybe slower, uh, and maybe just not as good of an opportunity. Is I think their decision rather be in Silicon Valley or American companies, uh, or perhaps Asia. So what's it like being the most aggressive successful company then in Europe or one of them? Is there, uh, I think you're right now. I think it is the, I mean, uh, well, I mean, Spotify obviously is much better, but Klarna you're in the top 10 probably, uh, clearly in the top 10. So, um, what's the talent pool like there? How is it different specifically Italy? I noticed when Chamath goes to Italy, maybe the, there's a little bit less working going on. An extra button. He, he goes from three on buttons to four. Yeah. The buttons go down and the number of hours in front of a laptop. (00:21:18) Like Italy changes Chamath. We see it. How do you keep these Italians working? How do you do, what's the secret? No, but tell us about the talent pool and running a company in Europe. So I think, uh, I think Europe has a lot of problems. Uh, but I think there's a pretty good talent, uh, half a billion, uh, uh, people living, let's say the main part of Europe. So it's a lot of people with pretty good education. It's not Stanford, but it's solid. Uh, and, uh, and a lot of these people have a chip on their shoulder to prove we're not necessarily less smart or capable. So you do find a lot of good people. Uh, I do think there is a, the fact that Italians don't work hard is mostly, uh, a false stereotype. Yes. Uh, I, we find that, uh, I mean, my wife, she doesn't work with me. She works in other companies. She works, uh, a lot long hours at our company. (00:22:05) We work pretty hard. We generally find that when we acquire companies and we work with existing teams more often than not, the, the, the, the, the team we bring in works substantially harder. So, um, I don't know. We just try to hire people who are intrinsically motivated, very ambitious. Uh, you're just hungry, entrepreneurial and, uh, and then give them, you know, a good reason to, to do their business. And then, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I think, uh, I (00:22:56) They were at McGill's. They were at CMU. Well, it could be an advantage. Yeah, well, that's sort of what I'm getting at. It's a huge advantage. I mean, when I, when I interviewed, uh, Charles Koch, you and I talked about this, what I found so fascinating is he built that business, probably the most extraordinary wholly owned business on earth, from nothing, effectively, in Wichita, Kansas. And I say it's like the Wichita mindset, because he basically kind of ignored everything that was conventional, and he was able to do things his own way. I don't know anyone that thinks and does things the way you do them that are based in Silicon Valley, and that might be the reason, because you're in Milan, and you're not kind of indoctrinated into cultural thinking. I mean, look, I'll just say what's, what I find so incredibly interesting about your company and what you're building is in, in all of our generations, we've seen this, these incredible examples of companies that have run your playbook, but in traditional industries. (00:23:48) Um, Amphenol, Roper, Danaher, Berkshire, and we've never seen a successful implementation of it in tech. And, uh, I think you're the best scaled example. I mean, Expedia tried, Barry tried. I think it was a little complicated. Um, so it's really exciting to see that this thing can work, because the, the, the structural issue is always, how do you underwrite these cash flows? And I think you're proving that they're underwritable, that these things can go out for seven, eight, nine years. And especially now, if you look at PE, the PE guys are basically like, we don't know what the f*** is going on. Right? Yet you're still able to go and transact and you're announcing deals at a pace where these, you know, a lot of the PE folks are. Or, so how, how do you, how do you manage this risk? Like, it's clearly, it's not a risk. You think it's a tailwind for you. Yeah. I think the, the, the, no, the private equity is completely different because they keep these companies separate for the most part to sell them. (00:24:38) And so they could never have that technological foundation because once you plug it in, in a company, what do you do when you sell it to your private equity competitor? Do you license it to them? So that's, you know, remove that. They can't have a pooled team of engineers, designers, because if they put them on the, on the, uh, on a business and then they sell it, what do they do? Do they take the team out and that it's the team, the business is almost worthless or do they sell the team with it? So it's just the model is completely different. And, and I believe these structural differences are a big reason why we have been, uh, I'd like to say successful. Um, so it will never work with the traditional private equity, which has other advantages. You can deploy maybe a lot more capital cause it's a little bit more, you know, hands off, but, uh, but you can never achieve the returns. I think we, we have. All right. I want to say thank you. An incredible business you're building. Congratulations. Well done. (00:25:23) Luca Ferrari, everybody. Luca Ferrari, everybody. Thank you. Thank you. ! Thank you. Thank you.

本集资源与出处