嘉宾访谈·中文精读

拉姆·伊曼纽尔:特朗普的外交政策、中国、欧洲衰落、移民与 DSA 对决民主党

Rahm Emanuel: Trump's Foreign Policy, China, Europe's Decline, Immigration & DSA vs Democrats

伊曼纽尔复盘克林顿与奥巴马时期的经验,谈对华竞争与台海、中东局势、欧洲衰落、移民改革,以及民主党内部分裂。

官方音频00:00 / --:--

本期章节点时间可跳到音频对应位置

  1. 0:00杰森和弗里德伯格欢迎拉姆·伊曼纽尔
  2. 1:16与克林顿和奥巴马共事的经验教训
  3. 7:45中国:如何应对冲突、新经济集团、孤立与台湾
  4. 28:49欧洲:西方衰落的原因
  5. 38:37移民:美国的解决方案、该效仿谁、为美国人补贴大学教育
  6. 46:55国家债务、政府对市场的干预、修复教育
  7. 1:09:24美国民主社会主义者与民主党
中文精读由 AI 基于原始节目改写,非官方翻译,可能存在偏差或错误;观点归属与表述以原音频与官方文稿为准。说明

拉姆·伊曼纽尔(Rahm Emanuel)在阿斯彭安全会议上讲过一个判断,最近正在为《华尔街日报》写专栏把它展开:习近平最大的一宗出口商品,是中国的国内经济失能,汽车和电子产品都排在它后面。他说两个超级大国在把世界当人质,一个输出经济失能,一个输出政治和文化的失能。

然后他上了 All-In 的访谈,跟杰森·卡拉卡尼斯(Jason Calacanis)和大卫·弗里德伯格(David Friedberg)聊了七十多分钟。

开场时杰森念了一长串履历:克林顿的高级顾问、奥巴马的幕僚长、芝加哥市长、驻日大使。伊曼纽尔的回应是,这段介绍听起来像悼词,他在等拉比上台。他还说,一般人讲他的职业生涯都从国会开始,能记得他起步于克林顿的高级顾问,值得表扬。杰森提到他一直在谈 2028 年、谈后特朗普时代的美国该往哪走,本人没打算在这期节目里正式宣布什么。

克林顿是三维棋手,奥巴马接手了烂摊子

伊曼纽尔先给两位老板找了共同点:他们都对政府持肯定态度。他反复强调一个前提。

如果人们认为政府连一场一车规模的游行都组织不起来,你就不可能有进步主义政策。(伊曼纽尔)

美国最后一次对政府的净好感度为正,出现在克林顿时期。转折点是他签署福利改革法案那会儿,翻数据就能看出来。

两人的技能包不一样。克林顿能在政策、政治、媒体三个维度上同时下三维棋,他对总统职位的理解跟老罗斯福一样,是把它重新定义一遍。他最厉害的地方是把一项政策讲清楚,把人从原来的位置带到改变面前,还不让改变显得可怕。奥巴马接手的是伊拉克战争收尾加一场逼近大萧条的金融危机,从每月流失 80 万个岗位转到每月创造 20 万个,把美国从两场战争里拖出来,重新定位成世界上一股良性力量。

伊曼纽尔顺手给左翼回了一枪:对克林顿和奥巴马最狠的批评,常常出自左边。

那我就问一句:你是对和平不满意,还是对繁荣不满意?里根之后,克林顿任内经济增长最多、就业增长最多、收入差距缩小最多。那八年美国在经济、政治、军事三个维度上都是唯一的强权。(伊曼纽尔)

弗里德伯格问得更深:奥巴马把美国民主当作核心政策对外输出,是不是就打开了今天文化战争外溢的闸门?伊曼纽尔不认这个账。他说每个国家都有四件国家安全工具:军事力量、政治说服、经济治国术、文化吸引力。美国这个品牌本身就是政治资产,特朗普把它搞臭了,这直接损害了美国的政治说服力、经济治国术和军事能力。他举了个例子,只有美国能把俄罗斯和乌克兰拉到一张桌子上,这种能力是真资产。

习近平最大的出口商品,是中国自己的经济失能

伊曼纽尔把即将到来的习特会叫作「颠覆峰会」,专栏正在写。

习近平最大的出口商品,汽车和电子产品都排不上号,真正的大宗是中国的国内经济失能。他们在碾压全世界其他国家的工业基础。WTO 的诉讼里,针对中国的案子比其他所有国家加起来的还多。智利的钢厂、印尼的服装厂、巴西的四座高炉。(伊曼纽尔)

他说两个超级大国在把世界当人质,一个靠经济失能,另一个靠国内的政治和文化失能。特朗普在德国大选前九天会见新纳粹色彩的 AFD,英国闹种族紧张时火上浇油,这些都在向外输出自己的内部问题。

中国那边的症状他列得很细:房地产泡沫破裂放着不处理,消费者趴在地上,工业基础本身缺乏理性。中国汽车出口在涨,行业利润掉了 20%。

他给的替代方案是:与其加关税,不如组一个经济集团,大家一起扛住中国,然后在市场上正面碰。这条主线贯穿他整场访谈。

弗里德伯格补了一层更技术性的担忧。中国的电力产能正在奔向 8 太瓦,美国在 1 太瓦附近徘徊,2040 年摸到 2 太瓦都难。中国的制造业建筑面积是美国的 20 倍,其中很大一部分已经自动化。他说过去三十年美国让制造业外流,把重心押在知识和知识产权服务上,而开源 AI 正在削掉这块最后的护城河。他问伊曼纽尔,美国今天的经济站位能不能应对这个。

伊曼纽尔的回答是别把软件和制造业对立起来,两边都要,美国自己放任了一边萎缩。他把责任摊开:商业圆桌会议和美国商会对于对华国家安全判断的影响过大,结果一个产业接一个产业搬去海外,等于把国家安全商业化了。这个账要算在所有人头上,不分党派。

中国的双赢论,和「孤立那个孤立者」

伊曼纽尔对中国的野心有个具体解释:中国要的结果是所有人都依赖中国,而中国自己独立于所有人。他认定所谓双赢从来不存在。

你的市场会变得又大又重要,你拿它没办法,你的经济会依赖我们的市场。我们利用这一点去摧毁、操纵和控制你的主权。而我们独立于你,我们不需要你的市场。(伊曼纽尔)

大豆是最好的例子。美国切断大豆供应,中国转身从巴西和阿根廷买。系统里有冗余,中国就有了最大回旋余地和最小代价。

他想让人记住的教训来自疫苗。Operation Warp Speed 让美国在 12 个月内做出有效性 90% 以上的疫苗,中国花了 18 到 19 个月,有效性 60%。后来被证实的一件事是,不少中国领导人没打国产疫苗,悄悄打了辉瑞和莫德纳。中国的疫苗出口不出去,第三世界没人要。机会摆在眼前,美国在政治、经济、文化三条线上都浪费掉了。

然后习近平做了个决定:大规模投资生命科学。五年之内,中国在生命科学领域追到与美国并驾齐驱,而这个领域此前几乎被美国独占,欧洲只有一两个例外。

伊曼纽尔顺手打了特朗普一枪:每一份预算提案都砍 NIH 40%,共和党人挡下来,最后允许砍 15%。

你不可能一边砍 NIH,一边维持美国的领导地位。市场上有一种胰腺癌药物,来自 NIH 的资助,现在看起来对另外三四种癌症也有效。NIH、国家科学基金会、DARPA、国家实验室、国立大学,这是美国皇冠上的宝石。我们现在的政府在做什么?正在亲手拆掉自己的武装。(伊曼纽尔)

解决方案分两步。第一步是聚合澳大利亚、日本、韩国、台湾、欧盟,再加上拉美的朋友。不要对巴西发动贸易战,巴西是那个地区的大经济体。站在一起,中国就被孤立。他用五个字概括:孤立那个孤立者。第二步,拿经济集团争取来的这段时间,重整美国自身的研究和产能。

国防工业是个样板。美国一开始反应迟钝,但别低估美国:新技术、创业者、风险资本、DARPA 的研究体系,加上部署能力。给五年时间,只要不让洛克希德、雷神、通用动力把新东西掐死在摇篮里,也不让五角大楼把它养坏。

中东:伊朗四十年搭起来的代理人网络正在散架

伊曼纽尔说中东有三条趋势同时在跑。第一条是站队分化:阿联酋、巴林、科威特留在美国这一边,沙特、埃及、约旦属于第一梯队,沙特、埃及、巴基斯坦、土耳其、卡塔尔看起来在对冲。他们知道自己是依赖美国的,但不想依赖到在伊拉克和伊朗两场战争里显得脆弱。印度到中东再到欧洲的经济走廊,是把这些国家在经济和政治上一起拉近美国的抓手。

第二条是伊朗代理人网络的崩塌。四十年、四百多亿美元砸下去的那套「章鱼」,现在哈马斯被打到溃败,真主党被围困,大马士革和叙利亚丢了,伊拉克总统处理民兵问题有进展但没走到终点。最能说明变化的是黎巴嫩政府正在跟以色列合作围困真主党,非阿萨德政府的叙利亚在跟以色列谈安全协议。六日战争的三个对手,如今都跟以色列达成了某种解决方案。叙利亚还可能成为一条从巴士拉通往港口的能源管道过境国,绕开霍尔木兹海峡。

第三条是海湾主要国家会加入那个经济集团。伊曼纽尔还专门提了半导体和另外一些经济筹码。

台湾的三种剧本,和已经在发生的南海

杰森问台湾怎么办,伊曼纽尔把问题切得很干脆。

一个中国政策有两部分。政治层面的表述可以保持模糊,但用武力改变现状这件事上,我们从不模糊。(伊曼纽尔)

他直接否掉 2027 这个时间点。在他看来事情已经在发生。伊朗战争之后,中国看到美国被拖在霍尔木兹海峡、资源被占用,于是对菲律宾的对抗大幅升级,对日本明显更激进,在尖阁诸岛周边动作加大,还从潜艇发射了一枚实弹导弹,落点靠近澳大利亚。这些都是给美国所有盟友的信号:你的保护者没了,韩国、日本、印度、澳大利亚、新西兰、新加坡、菲律宾、越南都收到了。

一旦打仗,白宫就变成一个只会耍一个球的杂耍者。这个白宫被中东占满了,已经失去对印太的专注。(伊曼纽尔)

他强调菲律宾和台湾不一样。菲律宾是一个国家,是条约盟友,还在 2016 年赢了仲裁案。中国正在从黄岩岛一带持续造岛。如果美国在那里不站出来,就轮不到谈台湾。

台湾本身有三种剧本。第一种是经济隔离,慢慢把台湾闷死。第二种是入侵,试图在 96 小时内结束。第三种是拿下靠近大陆的三个小岛,然后对世界说,你们要为这个开战吗,走他们一贯的切香肠路线。这三种手法历史上中国都用过,只是对象不同。

美国的准备也得对应三套。对付 96 小时速胜,必须能明确告诉对方,这会变成 96 天,要有资源、有能力把速战变成持久战。对付隔离,菲律宾和冲绳的基地部署是关键,隔离在有空海力量覆盖时无法奏效。对付小岛,必须提前投射力量。他把话说回到一个基本判断:安全靠实力,威慑也靠实力,而美国现在的威慑力很弱。

日本是美国在印太的那根长杆

伊曼纽尔当过驻日大使,这部分他讲得最细。日本是美国印太政策的长杆:四方机制、美日韩三边、美日菲三边,每一根线都绕不开日本。冲绳是美国在单一国家最大的军事足迹,欧洲按大洲算最大,但世界上唯一永久驻扎航母的地方在日本。日本连续五年是美国最大的外国直接投资来源国,美国也连续五年是日本最大的外国直接投资来源国。再加上棒球这种共享的文化吸引力,软实力也在里面。

有一个变化他特别看重:日本首相公开说,对台湾动武构成国家安全威胁。这句话美国努力了三十年想让日本首相说出口。中国因此暴怒,因为习近平出于国内原因从不希望这件事被公开说出来。现在日本承受着经济胁迫、政治胁迫和军事恫吓。

美国最近支持日元、干预汇率,伊曼纽尔承认里面有很强的自利成分:美国自己有巨额国债,美元和国债市场都承压。光这个不够。中俄在尖阁诸岛周边演习时美国没有在场,军事训练上需要补的东西更多。

欧洲的衰落,到底是谁点的火

弗里德伯格先摆出论点:欧洲处在一种不可逆的衰败里,AFD 这类政党的崛起是对开放边境政策的反应,是资源被稀释、文化被冲淡之后的反弹。

伊曼纽尔的第一记反击很技术:德国情报机构把 AFD 列为监控对象,不用他来定性。弗里德伯格回了一句,美国情报机构也监控过特朗普。两边都笑了,问题没解决。

伊曼纽尔承认欧洲确实有反弹,文化上有,经济上也有,跟美国一样。美国现在有 63% 的人靠工资过日子,收入停滞加上财富集中,政治和文化景观都会变。他说这事没有单独的汤碗,移民、收入、增长、GDP 全炖在一锅里。

他给欧洲开的药方是德拉吉那份报告:一个强劲、有技术竞争力的欧洲经济,对西方体系有利。如果经济集团这个判断成立,你需要能一起跑的人,拖油瓶只会变成负担。他也承认欧洲在自我窒息这件事上有份,布鲁塞尔过度监管,扼杀了创新、创业和竞争力,现在正在纠正。

然后是正面对撞。弗里德伯格说这些是左翼政策,能源政策毁掉德国核电、让德国依赖俄罗斯能源,一边扩大公共福利一边开放边境。伊曼纽尔连着三条回击:默克尔来自基民盟,是保守派;接收 100 万叙利亚难民时那句「我们能搞定」,是基民盟的决定;福岛事故之后关停核电站,让德国更依赖俄罗斯能源,也是她做的,而美国当时警告过。他说:别告诉我这是左翼的政策,你错了。

弗里德伯格不服气,说把默克尔这些决定摆在一张白纸上,他会说那就是左翼。伊曼纽尔让了一部分:她开放边境时本应该有一个更周全的流程。人们不喜欢失序,边境上的失序,明尼阿波利斯街头的失序,欧洲也一样,斯德哥尔摩、柏林,看起来完全失控。但他不接受把账算到「左翼」这两个字头上。

他真正不满的是美国在做什么。德国现在每个月流失五千到一万个制造业岗位,压力来自中国。这本该是美国的合作机会,一起面对中国。结果副总统在德国大选前九天会见 AFD,英国闹种族问题时火上浇油,梅洛尼国内有麻烦时美国去攻击她。

杰森追问特朗普这么做的动机。伊曼纽尔的回答很刻薄。

这位总统向下挥拳,向上亲吻。他对普京和习近平仰慕他这件事有执念,而这两个人觉得他是个笑话。他觉得美国是他们的上级,但他本人不是他们的同级。然后他对卢拉、对默茨、对梅洛尼、对卡尼、对辛鲍姆挥拳,因为在他看来中等强国就该被欺负。他就是个恶霸,现在已经没人买了。所有人都在看那个没穿衣服的皇帝。(伊曼纽尔)

移民:一份他自己都不满意的法案,他却公开背书

伊曼纽尔自称「最后一个乐观主义者」,还真相信能通过立法解决移民问题。他先立了两条原则:美国是法治之国,也是移民之国。任何关于合法和非法移民的方案,都得同时对得起这两条。

他不是空谈。克林顿时期圣迭戈的「守门人行动」、亚利桑那诺加利斯的「保障行动」,都是他参与设计的。他的组合拳是:边境要硬,执法要硬,工作场所也要有资源配备。

具体落点是《尊严法案》(Dignity Act),众议院里 23 名共和党和 23 名民主党联署。伊曼纽尔说得很坦白,如果由他坐在键盘前,写不出能让 46 个人签字的版本。他公开背书了。

如果按政治算计,你应该离这个法案远一点,用标题党就够了。但在我看来,我们得把这个麻烦甩到身后,才能有未来。你有 23 个共和党人在合法移民和非法移民的具体条款上签了字。它比民主党当多数党时的版本更偏共和党一点,对,因为他们现在是多数党。想要掰回来?可以,但你得有白宫的领导人出面。特朗普那种上节目说空话的做法不算数,他在「追梦人」和「每张文凭配一张绿卡」上都没兑现。(伊曼纽尔)

他专门讲了合法移民和中国的联系:中国生命科学领域的领军人物里,很多是在美国受训、在美国工作过的,然后被美国赶走了。在他看来这是把优势当垃圾扔。

杰森问到积分制、语言要求和同化。伊曼纽尔的样板是加拿大和丹麦,日本不适合类比:98% 是单一族裔社会,总共只有 370 万移民,自己还觉得有移民问题。

高等教育这块他给的机制很具体:允许每所大学自己定目标,外国学生比例最高可以到 20%,本科和研究生之间怎么分由学校决定。这些学生付全价,全额学费用来补贴美国学生读三年制本科、不走四年制,等于替父母省下一年学费。牛津和剑桥本来就是三年制。这些学生既然来美国读书,更可能留下来创业、建公司。

他也没放过自己的党。2020 年民主党辩论台上所有人举手,说要给非法越境者免费医保。

先不提移民政策,这是价值观问题。美国工薪家庭正在医疗费用下窒息,我们连全民覆盖都还没做到,你却在许诺给非法越境者免费医疗?从任何角度看,这都是愚蠢的。(伊曼纽尔)

政府花钱是不是元凶,两人对赌上了

弗里德伯格摆出一套数据框架:过去三十年平均通胀 2.5%,但住房每年涨 5% 以上,教育 6% 以上,医疗 5.5%。这三个领域有一个共同点,联邦政府都推出了补贴或供给计划,承诺人人有房、人人有学上、人人有医保。而政府没介入的领域,科技、能源、食品、消费服务,总成本在下降。他的结论是通缩在市场里是有效的,政府一进场,价格就往上走。

伊曼纽尔的反驳是具体案例堆出来的。GI 法案是政府倡议,让美国的住房拥有率大幅上升,难道二战后对海外服役的人说,不给 GI 法案,让市场自己解决住房?教育那一块也在里面。农业法案给大农业补贴种粮。能源更别提,钻探有税收减免,政府一直在里面。他说弗里德伯格的类比本来就站不住。

他的正面主张是罗斯福式的:当权力和财富的集中度过高,政府要站到被集中权力伤害的人那一边。老罗斯福就是在做这件事的时候重新定义了政府。

住房这块他承认政府确实搞砸了,搞砸的是地方层面。旧金山、纽约这类经济好的城市,分区、建筑、许可法规把成本推得很高,是重要成因之一。他说如果自己还是芝加哥市长,会把芝加哥的分区法、建筑法、许可和规划法全部拉出来,跟达拉斯、休斯顿、凤凰城逐条对照,说不清为什么有、别人为什么没有的,一律废掉。

更关键的是首次购房者。2008 年金融危机之后,市场只在高价段和低价段两头做,中间断了将近二十年,私营部门自己修不好,这块必须公私合力。

教育辩论吵得最凶。弗里德伯格问的是成本:大学行政人员三十年间从占 10% 涨到 60%,联邦学生贷款计划没有附加任何成本或质量约束,等于给学费上涨源源不断添柴。伊曼纽尔的反应几乎是拍桌子。

你问问题的方式就告诉我你的优先级在哪。50% 的孩子阅读达不到年级水平,你要跟我谈学生贷款?孩子是从三年级开始掉队的。当一半的孩子不会阅读,学费就不是你的问题。靠这个去跟一个面积是你三倍的对手竞争?对不起,那不是赢的办法。(伊曼纽尔)

他的成绩单是芝加哥:八年时间把毕业率从 56% 拉到 83%,斯坦福的肖恩·里尔登(Sean Reardon)把它评为前 100 大学区里最好的一个,各年级阅读和数学成绩都超过同侪,领先大约六个月。

完整方案他一条条报了出来。

  • 普及全日制幼儿园,免费全日制学前班,他自称是早教的坚定信徒
  • 小学阶段:普遍问责,家长、校长、学校都算进去,不只算老师;重建教师培养和在职培训体系,让培训变成持续动作,一次性的培训今天已经太平了;把州和市的资源编织到一起
  • 高中阶段:目标 100% 的学生带着大学学分毕业,通过双学分和双录取对接全美 1200 所社区大学;没有大学、社区大学、军队或职业学校的录取通知,就不发高中毕业证,芝加哥的合规率做到了 98%
  • 把浪费在 ICE 拘留中心上的 380 亿美元挪出来,现代化全国的社区大学,包括校园、课程和与周边产业的相关性
  • 高等教育四条:外国学生上限 20% 且付全价;学校在联邦合规支出里省下的钱,留 10% 给自己;带着 20 个大学学分进校的学生可以读三年制本科;家庭收入 20 万美元以下免费上大学,20 万美元以上的学费年涨幅不得超过通胀

他补充了劳动力市场的现实:80% 的工作需要至少两年高中后教育,而美国的高中结构从老罗斯福时代至今没有真正改过。数据中心和宽带建设缺五六十万电工,造潜艇缺管道工和水管工。

你想当水管工,很好。你想当医生,很好。你想当物理治疗师,很好。但要有一个真的反映经济所需技能的教育系统。(伊曼纽尔)

四十万亿债务,和伊曼纽尔的五件事

弗里德伯格把宏观数字摊开:联邦政府一年花 7 万亿,收入 5 万亿,缺口 2 万亿,债务 40 万亿,按 30 年期 5% 的利率算,一年利息就是 2 万亿。他想知道怎么把财政状况拉回到能给下一代留未来的位置。

伊曼纽尔先认账再追责。克林顿留下的盈余制造了松懈。用两场减税打两场战争,美国历史上从没这么干过。当年格林斯潘还说过十年期国债收益率太低对美国的危险。从一个被称作「危险」的盈余,走到今天四万亿级别的赤字,中间是决策上的鲁莽。

他的增长方案有五条:教育从学前班到本科;《尊严法案》;能源系统现代化,他把德州说成美国最好的样板;对预测市场和在线体育博彩征 3% 到 10% 的税,收入定向给 NIH、国家科学基金会和 DARPA,把研究经费翻倍;以及一个奖励财富创造、不再奖励财富保值的税法。

最后一条他讲得最狠。递升基数(step up basis)让财富可以一代代免税传下去,其他人却在为月账单挣扎。《华尔街日报》六周前报道,有人在组织退休营教孩子怎么处理继承来的遗产。

你肯定在开玩笑。如果你不利用规则去保值、去传承,你才是那个傻子。这我们所有人都知道。这种事必须改。(伊曼纽尔)

他也给了自己的取舍:控制未来五年的总体支出上限,在系统内部做艰难选择。他不会花 380 亿美元建没人想要的拘留中心,只拿其中 80 亿出来现代化那 1200 所社区大学,那是拉科罗斯、斯帕坦堡这些地方的经济支柱。他说世界银行把芝加哥的大学与职业项目评为全美最佳。

我不相信给 ICE 探员发五万美元奖金,我宁愿把奖金发给愿意当木匠和电工的人。那对美国未来的意义,比一个戴着面罩在明尼阿波利斯街头跑来跑去的人要大得多。(伊曼纽尔)

最低工资这块他的立场和杰森接近。克林顿时期提过,佩洛西当议长时最后一次提到 7.25 美元,他当芝加哥市长时也提过,还让它每年自动上调。他强调必须配一个非常慷慨的 EITC(劳动所得税抵免),那才让工作划得来。如果由他做主,他会把 EITC、儿童税收抵免合并成一个家庭抵免。

回你自己的党去,11 月见

节目最后绕回国内政治。芝加哥刚办完 DSA(美国民主社会主义者)大会,伊曼纽尔的表态没有任何回旋余地。

你们不是民主党人。你们是一个独立的党。回你们自己的党去,待在那儿。11 月见。(伊曼纽尔)

他讲了自己这辈子的政治履历:克林顿击败老布什,奥巴马赢了麦凯恩,把 31 个选区从共和党手里翻成民主党,让佩洛西当上议长。他说他对把蓝选区做得更蓝毫无兴趣,那不会提高最低工资,不会带来普及学前班,不会给一千万没医保的孩子医保。

他提到一篇专栏里,一位属于 DSA 网络的司法民主党人直说对击败共和党没兴趣。伊曼纽尔说,他欣赏这份诚实,因为他自己有兴趣。

我认为唐纳德·特朗普是一场存在性危机。你们认为奥巴马、佩洛西、哈基姆·杰弗里斯是存在性危机。我们在战略上、政策上、政治上都有根本分歧。(伊曼纽尔)

伊曼纽尔说以后还会来上节目。杰森说要把查马斯和萨克斯也拉来,跟伊曼纽尔同台一次。这一次大概没人反对。

这一期值得带走的几件事

  • 盯着《尊严法案》的立法进程。众议院 23 名共和党加 23 名民主党联署,是移民议题里少见的真实重合区间,也是判断两党建制派还有多少议价能力的直接指标。
  • 把中国竞争从关税叙事里拆出来看。伊曼纽尔的核心主张是建经济集团、孤立中国,观察美国是在拉拢澳大利亚、日本、韩国、欧盟、拉美,还是在同时对巴西、印度这些潜在盟友开火,比看关税税率更有信息量。
  • 押注印太的军事与产业角色时,日本是第一顺位。冲绳是美国在单一国家最大的军事足迹,日本连续五年是美国最大的外国直接投资来源国,这种绑定关系比任何声明都硬。
  • NIH、国家科学基金会、DARPA 和国立大学的预算,是生命科学和前沿技术投资的先行指标。特朗普每份预算提议砍 NIH 40%、国会最终允许砍 15% 这个模式,本身就是产业周期的定价因子。
  • 如果你在硅谷招人或者创业,把 20% 外国学生全价入学加三年制本科这套机制记住。它同时解释了美国高等教育成本问题的来路和一条可能的出路,也是判断美国还能不能吸引顶尖人才的观察窗口。
  • 财政上,40 万亿债务按 5% 利率就是一年 2 万亿利息,这已经超过大部分联邦部门的年度支出。做长期资产配置时,把「利息挤占财政空间」当成基准情景,别当成尾部风险。
文稿来自 All-In 官网(allin.com)发布的官方 Transcript,说话人按官网分轨数据标注,个别段落可能张冠李戴。
Jason Calacanis (00:00:00): Alright, everybody. We are super pleased to have Rahm Emanuel join us for the all in interview today. He was a senior adviser of Bill Clinton, last president, presided over zero national Rahm Emanuel (00:00:10): debt. Mhmm. Jason Calacanis (00:00:11): And he was Obama's chief of staff, mayor of Chi Town, ambassador to my favorite country to visit Japan under president Biden. He hasn't made an official announcement about his presidential run-in 2028 nor do I think he's gonna make an announcement here, but he's been talking a lot about where the country needs to go in a post Trump world, specifically in 2028. Freiberg and I are going to ask Ram about the most important topics facing America today, the economy, inflation, employment, surging national debt, never ending wars, the rise of socialism and sadly antisemitism, immigration, skilled and legal, and how his positions have evolved over four decades of service to America. Welcome to the all in interview, Ram Emanuele. Welcome, Ram. Rahm Emanuel (00:00:57): I'm here. Yeah. Jason Calacanis (00:00:59): Okay. There you Rahm Emanuel (00:00:59): go. I didn't know that was the cue. I was, like, waiting for that was a bit felt like an obituary. I was waiting for the rabbi to get up. That introduction is the only one that ever starts with Clinton. Usually, they start my career in congress. And so I give you a lot of kudos for remembering that I started as senior adviser to president Clinton. So Jason Calacanis (00:01:30): Well, let's start with that. What did you learn under Clinton and Obama? And, you know, these two, what I would say are the last two same presidents we seem to have had who were moderates in my mind. I'm a moderate. Yeah. Slightly left leaning. But these seem to have been two great presidential runs that you were involved in. What did you learn from each of those individuals? Rahm Emanuel (00:01:52): They have different skill sets, so let's also but they they had an outlook of the world. They had an outlook of The United States in the world. They had a outlook of kind of a progressive affirmative view of government. I think they most importantly, which I kinda remind everybody, you can't have progressive policies if people think that the government can't run a and organize a one car parade. Not possible. They have to have an affirmative view. And the last time you've had a net positive was under Bill Clinton. And it actually wasn't for, the balanced budget obviously helped, but actually it's it shifts when he signs welfare reform. And you can go back and look at the data. But to their skill set, Bill Clinton was a unique person who, in my view, was able to integrate in three-dimensional chess, both policy, politics, and press, and understood the presidency as a in a way that, Teddy Roosevelt had redefined it. He was redefining it for the twenty first century, and he really meant what he said being a bridge there. And nobody was better, not just at giving a speech, but taking a policy, being able to communicate, to carry people from where they were to change and may not make change threatening, and then achieve the objectives you wanted. That said, president, Obama, in my own view, coming at the end or not the end, but the Iraq war, etcetera, understood that this was a different president's both the end of the Iraq war or towards the end and the financial meltdown that we were at a pivotal moment and a transitional moment for America. And I do think, you know, look. Every president gets judged. What's the world you inherited? What is the world you leave behind? And sometimes the harshest critics of both Obama and Clinton come from the left, not the right. And I said, is it the peace or the prosperity you don't like most? Because I I'll I'll address it. Rahm Emanuel (00:03:54): Was it the fact that post Reagan, Clinton's economy grew the most, jobs grew the most, and income disparity shrunk the most. And people were calling it the unipower that no country, both economically, politically, military, had as the power The United States had. Now we can get back to what happened there. And then I think in the same way, the left criticizes Obama for being kind of, tepid. And, you know, he hires a country that's near a depression, known as the great recession, but it was actually getting close to a depression, saves it from that, transitions to from losing 800,000 jobs to creating 200,000 jobs, and, you know, gets America out of, two wars, continues obviously the war on terror, but repositions America in the world to be a force for good. And I learned how you you know, it's not like a to do kit. There's no kinda there's no to do kit in the drawer of the resolute desk, but the merging of policy, politics, and I wanna say public relations, but communications. David Friedberg (00:05:03): Did Obama export American democracy as a point of primary policy? And did that lead to this world that we find ourselves in today where there's this pullback because a lot of what gets exported ends up being kind of one side of the political spectrum, not the other? And and now we're kinda seeing this what what did we do? Rahm Emanuel (00:05:24): I made this point a long time ago. I said it recently at the Aspen Security Conference. So I'm now writing my next op ed on this in the journal as a prelude of a curtain raiser to the summit, by Xi and Trump. David Friedberg (00:05:38): Mhmm. Rahm Emanuel (00:05:39): I'm I'm gonna I'm labeling it the summit of disruption. Xi is largest export. It's not autos or electronics. It's the domestic dis economic dysfunction of China. They're crushing everybody in other countries, manufacturing base, industrial base across the world. They have more cases, WTO cases, than any other country, and all of them combined are against China. Chile's steel plant, Indonesia's garment plant, Brazil's four burn furnaces. We are exporting our domestic political and cultural dysfunction. That is the two superpowers are holding the world hostage. One through economic dysfunction and the domestic. I mean, Xi refuses to deal with the, obviously, the real estate bubble popping, consumer that's flat on their back, and an industrial, base that makes no rational sense. And so they're I I mean, literally, they're as an example, their auto industry is now exporting more cars, and their profits are down 20%. Right. We I mean, by, through Trump, you can look at what he's doing in Brazil nine days before the German election meeting with the neo Nazi party, the AFD. There was race tensions, in Great Britain. We seemed we wanna exacerbate them. We are literally exporting both political and cultural dysfunction at our home onto the world. Now I happen to think this president stylistically likes to punch down and kiss up to Putin and Xi, but that's a stylistic point. But that's what the two superpowers, they don't seem to have managed their internal, and now they're exporting it on the rest of the world as a dumping ground for their domestic problems. I happen to think, coming back from Japan, etcetera, that rather than have tariffs, we should have an economic block so all of us together can withstand China to actually organize not only that economic block, but then kind of other p meet them in the marketplace. Rahm Emanuel (00:07:41): That's how we, you know, win friends and influence enemies. David Friedberg (00:07:45): Yeah. Is that a different view than the Obama era notion that we should be exporting American culture, American democracy, I think was the framing? And that then opened the floodgates to exporting our culture wars. And then our culture wars became this kind of battleground where there's, like, transgender theater in Africa and, like, things that Rahm Emanuel (00:08:09): right? I David Friedberg (00:08:09): don't think all of this stuff. Rahm Emanuel (00:08:11): No. I don't think that's what opened the door. Look, David. I think The United States Of America, like every country, has four tools in their national security toolbox. One is military power. Second is political persuasion. Third is economic statecraft, and fourth is cultural attraction. And you're saying that, I mean, I think America's culture writ large, not just Hollywood. The American brand is a cultural attraction or was. I actually think this president has hurt the American brand. Our economic statecraft, our market, our technology, our universities and research, national labs, that is a piece of our economic statecraft, is a piece of our national security. And our ability you know, there's a great story the other day by David Graham, you know, only The United States can get Russia and Ukraine around the table. There is no other world like power. Our political persuasion could to do that is an asset in our national security toolbox. If you wanted to do the reason I laid out in my speech in The Middle East and Israel, the 23 state solution, China, Russia, or Europe cannot do that. Only we can do that. Now we have a massive political a military power. Each, I happen to think it's not prepared for the future. That's on both parties. I was also present at one at them. I think we got so enamored with the war on terror. We lost sight of the transit transformation that was happening on the battlefield and the technologies. You can see that in the drone area as an example. Neither Iran or Ukraine have a navy, and they both control waterways near their fronts. Tells you everything you need to know that you're not fighting two wars. You're fighting two different types of wars, and we gotta get ready for that. So to me, this also is a slight sickness of all you guys in media, which is where do we point the blame? I don't think Obama representing our cultural attractions around the globe. I do think America being popular around the globe is a political asset that then you use. Now that America's brand under Trump is in the toilet, that actually hurts America and its political power, its economic state crap, and its military capabilities. Rahm Emanuel (00:10:34): Simple. So I don't kinda say, you know, I don't think that we were exporting those cultural things, and therefore, that's where this problem came. I don't that's not how I see the point of origin or what has happened here. David Friedberg (00:10:47): Fair enough. Can I just ask one thing on China? So China's been historically Rahm Emanuel (00:10:52): It's your podcast. You can ask whatever you want. It's whether I it's what it's whether I answer it. David Friedberg (00:10:57): Well, I'm just here for for Jason and his pleasure. But, like, so Jason Calacanis (00:11:02): You're you're joining me, sweetie. Keep going. Rahm Emanuel (00:11:03): Yeah. That that's true for both David Friedberg (00:11:05): of us. Okay. Well, thanks. Jason's gonna have me back. Okay. So Yeah. As as I look at China, historically, it's been about this manufacturing base, this energy production capacity. Right? I often reference they're on their way to eight terawatt of electricity production. We're kind of sitting around one, hovering around one, finding it very hard to get to two by twenty forty. So China's got this massive amount of of energy that they can use to power electrified things. They've got 20 times the manufacturing square footage of The US, and much of it is automated. But now with AI and open sourcing AI, not only is China kind of dampening the capacity to compete in manufacturing, making molecules, making pharmaceuticals, making materials, now we're seeing them effectively eliminate the capacity to compete in knowledge services and IP. And this has really been the heart of The US economy, at least for the last thirty years, probably going back even further. But as we shifted to a more kind of global trade oriented economy and we allowed manufacturing to move to China and elsewhere, we focused on this kind of knowledge and services base. Do you think that we have a response against China today with how we're positioned economically and what's going on with AI? And this is the thing I worry a lot about in this China US conflict is we're all still still looking at the last thirty years as opposed to thinking about what the next twenty years look like in a world of kind of AI commoditization of all the things that American economy has been powered by. Rahm Emanuel (00:12:33): One, so let's step back. The way I see it is we got Xi comes to power, and we buy into this win win stuff that he's selling. And it was never a win win. China wants everybody dependent on China and them independent of you. That is their theory of the case. You our markets are gonna be so big and important. You can't do anything about it. You're gonna be dependent, your economy, on our markets. We're gonna leverage that to then destroy, manipulate, and control your sovereignty. And we'll be independent of you. We don't need your market. And we'll have multiple if you give us barley, we're gonna have five other people give up. Look at the soybeans case, The United States. We'll cut off your soybeans. We got Brazil and Argentina soybeans. So they have duplicity in the system. So they have maximum latitude with minimum for us or anybody else. Second, I take a lesson out of COVID. And I think this is illustrative of their plan and how we have to get smart. We have to learn from our mistakes. You can't ignore them. You should look. And I'm gonna get back to your software piece. But in COVID, Xi notices in operation of warp speed that within twelve months, 14, whatever, United States develops a vaccine that has a ninety plus percent efficacy. China takes eighteen, nineteen months, and their efficacy is in the sixty percent. And we know for a fact that a lot of Chinese leaders were not taking the Chinese vaccine, but they were end up taking quietly Pfizer, Moderna, etcetera. And they couldn't export this vaccine. Nobody in the third world want it. That's a huge opportunity for America. We squander it on the political side, the economic side, the cultural side, winning, quote, quote, unquote, the global side. Second, Xi makes a decision that will never happen again, massively invests in the life sciences. And within five years, China is not just nipping at our heels to peri pursue with The United States in life sciences, a place that The United States, outside of one or two examples in Europe, dominated. Now, again, I'm gonna take a shot at Trump. Every budget, he's proposed a 40% cut in NIH. Every budget. Rahm Emanuel (00:15:11): And the Republicans face off and allow 15%. You're not going to cut NIH in your way to American leadership. There's a pancreatic drug on the market. It came from NIH funding. And it's actually now looking like it will actually address three or four other cancers. The NIH, the National Science Foundation, DARPA, and America's National Labs and our national universities are our crown jewel. And what are we doing? We have an administration declaring war and actually involved in unilateral disarmament. Now software and manufacturing, We are dominant in software and in those tech spaces. It doesn't we shouldn't think it's either software or manufacturing. It's both. We allowed one to atrophy. Everybody, we allowed a commercialization of our national security. The business roundtable, the chamber of commerce way over influenced our national security vis a vis China, when we saw industry by industry, supply chain by supply chain, move offshore, and America's economy kept getting vulnerable. And that's on everybody. Everybody. And the other piece of it is so what we need to do, what's the next twenty years? One, aggregate Australia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, EU, friends in Latin America and get more friends. Don't declare war on Brazil. It's a big economy in the region. Make it an economic block because standing together makes China isolated. Isolate the isolator. Then use that time of a block, not our unilateral actions, but in an economic block where we're the dominant player, to organize our research and our capacity to then build up. Now example using the defense industry. United States, again, flat footed, but don't underestimate The United States. New technology, entrepreneurs, venture capital, the DARPA research arm, and The United States ability to deploy. You give us five years, and our capacity of that incredible system will produce as long as we don't like let Lockheed, Raytheon, General Dynamics to kill it and the Pentagon to nurture it. But we have to use the time of an economic block to stand up what we have allowed to atrophy and then to organize that block to confront China. And then China and North Korea and Iran and Russia, we isolate them. And right now, I gotta be honest, the president has isolated America and America's vulnerability. Rahm Emanuel (00:17:56): So that's how I look at the next 20. David Friedberg (00:17:58): Yeah. And where do the Middle East nations fit into that equation? Are they part of the block? Sure. Rahm Emanuel (00:18:01): David, I would say this. There's three trends going on in The Middle East. Step back from the news of the Strait Of Hormuz. There's three or four trends that we then aggregate. And one of the reasons I laid out what I laid out in Israel is a way that would isolate Iran. It'd be a good day for Israel's security, a good day for America's leadership, and a good day for American allies in The Middle East. The UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait are staying with kind of The United States. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan in that first list. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Pakistan, Turkey, and Qatar look like they're hedging. They know they're reliant on America, but they're not gonna be so dependent that they're vulnerable because of the lack of the leadership in two wars, Iran and Iraq. That's one trend. And one of the reasons I mentioned the the speech, the India, Middle East, Europe economic corridor, it keeps everybody coming closer to The United States economically and also politically on 23 states. Second, Iran invested forty years and 40,000,000,000 plus in the what Israel described as the octopus, the proxies. Hamas is degraded to defeat. I thought there was a very good article in the foreign affairs on this point. Hezbollah is cornered. Damascus and Syria has been lost, and the Iraqi president seems to be making pretty good headway, not all the way there, on dealing with the militia. That strategy of the proxies is so different. And an example of that, you have the Lebanese government working with Israel on cornering Hezbollah and degrading it. Syria, a non Assad president, is now talking to Israel about a security agreement. That would mean Jordan peace, Egypt peace, Syria security agreement. The three forces on the Six Day War all came to some resolution with Israel as a fact. Massively different, strategically different. And Syria will be the outlaw of a pipeline from Basra to their port for energy around the Strait Of Hormuz. These are big opportunities. Rahm Emanuel (00:20:28): So when I say and then you obviously know about semiconductor chips, other pieces of the economic piece. But, yes, major players in The Gulf would be part of that economic block. Jason Calacanis (00:20:40): Let's, before we leave China, talk a little bit about Taiwan. Obviously, Trump administration's been talking about, hey. In 2027 or 2029, China plans on invading Taiwan, seizing the fabs, etcetera. You worked under multiple administrations where strategic ambiguity was the process for China. Pause. Yeah. And, hey. We we support Taiwan and China and just keep it super ambiguous. The next president's probably gonna have to Rahm Emanuel (00:21:07): do this. Let me say this. We keep the politics ambiguous, but as it relates to using kinetic force to change the status quo, we're not ambiguous. Jason Calacanis (00:21:17): Yeah. Unpack it. Rahm Emanuel (00:21:17): There's two Well, there's two different parts to the Taiwan one China policy. That's a political statement. And then nobody changes the status quo through the use of force. Those are two things. Jason Calacanis (00:21:30): Yeah. And is if Rahm Emanuel (00:21:32): Just to that someone so just to prove that somebody knows something about the Taiwan act Yeah. As well as policy. Yeah. Jason Calacanis (00:21:38): Is your thinking Taiwan will, at some point, block and do a blockade? And how would the next president or how should the next president deal with that circumstance? Should we be airlifting, you know, all the equipment and people out of Taiwan, or should we be engaging in a blockade? This is, I think, the escalation that maybe isn't getting enough attention, and then we'll go back to the Iran. Rahm Emanuel (00:22:02): Right. Well, Jason, let let me start here, which is the consequence of the Iran war. China's watching The United States bogged down in the Strait Of Hormuz, resources allocated. Their their confrontation with Philippines has picked up dramatically. Their economic, military, and political isolation in Japan, much more aggressive. They're doing things around the Senkaku Islands, that are much more aggressive. They fired a live missile from a submarine in and around Australia. And all our allies in the region those are just some of it. I could go on to Vietnam, what they've done, and other things in the in The Philippines being the most dramatic in the South China Sea. All they now, China, is sending a message to all our allies, Korea, Japan, India, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Philippines, and Vietnam even. Look. Your protector? No more. I and the the damage by this administration moving, not only resources there, attention, political. The one thing I know you guys didn't ask, but it's not that you didn't ask. But when there's a war, the White House becomes a one ball juggler. Okay? This White House is consumed with what's going on, and they have lost focus on the Indo Pacific. And it's quite evident. China has picked up their aggression. Our long pole in the Indo Pacific is Japan. They are under economic pressure, political pressure, military. Yes. We have just come to the benefit of the yen, but we haven't done and done anything in and around the Senkaku Islands. We haven't done anything as it relates to the economic coercion China's involvement or the political battery. Jason Calacanis (00:23:51): China moves Rahm Emanuel (00:23:52): in. Do we do? Yeah. So hold on. So you say 2027. I'm like, I'm looking at it today and say, you don't go you don't get to wait. It's happening now. And second is I happen to think the South China Sea. Everybody talks about the Taiwan, and I'll get to that. I think when you look at The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and you look at China's behavior and the islands they're creating again, out of the shoal, out of, you know, Scarborough Shoal, etcetera, They aren't waiting to try to say that the South China Sea in which they lost the court case in 2016 is their backwater. And Philippines is not Taiwan. It's a country. It's a treaty ally, and it won a 2016 case. And if we don't stand up there, I don't before you get to Taiwan. Jason Calacanis (00:24:38): So it sounds Rahm Emanuel (00:24:39): like jigs up. So we're Jason Calacanis (00:24:40): like, you or think we should be projecting some force there or putting some troops there, some ships there with our allies, and we have to rebuild those bridges that we burn. We already Rahm Emanuel (00:24:48): have we already have troops there, and we already have resources. We need to double them up and give Philippines the confidence, especially given that president Marcos is taking massive risks. Second, in Taiwan, there are three strategies. One idea is a quarantine, two is invasion, and three, off of the Mainland China's coast are three islands associated with Taiwan. They got a rock, a butterfly, and a tree, and a fisherman. That's it. Now there's three strategies. One is the economic quarantine that just suffocates Taiwan. One is an invasion that tries to end this in ninety six hours. And the other one is they take over those three islands and look at the world and say, you're gonna start a war over this. And they do their incremental strategy. And if you look at China and their history, they have done all three of those historically with different countries. We have to be prepared for all three. One, they want a ninety six hour, not a Ukraine example. We have to say, no. This is gonna be ninety six days and have the resources, the capacity to say, this isn't gonna be one and done quick. Two, as it relates to quarantine, we have to be able to show both through our resources, which is why The Philippines and the Okinawa Islands, a quarantine can't work. Both air, naval, otherwise, you can't pull it off. And then third is the little islands off of Japan off of China, how we have to project where before, etcetera. Because remember, there's a security piece, and there's a deterrence piece, and we need to be our deterrence piece is very weakened right now. Jason Calacanis (00:26:32): I wanna get your opinion also on Japan remilitarizing since you spent some time there and their role in this because that seems to be an ally that's critically important as well as South Korea. So let's go to around right after we sort of sum up what's happening with those two allies in in your estimation, how we should be courting them. Obviously, we just backstopped the yen, and we have a pretty solid relationship with Japan. Rahm Emanuel (00:26:54): Look. Japan is the long pole of America's Indo Pacific policy. You look at the quad, India, Australia, Japan, The United States. You look at the trilateral, the two of them that I worked on between Korea, Japan, and The United States, United States, Japan, and The Philippines. The one continent is Japan with The United States. Our Okinawa, our largest military footprint in the world in a single country is in Japan. Europe, the biggest by continent, but it's the only place in the world there is a aircraft carrier permanently based. So militarily there. Last five years in a row, number one direct foreign investor in The United States, Japan. Last five years in a row, number one direct foreign investor in The in Japan, United States. So from economic term, you know, I could soft power or what's called the cultural attraction. You can look at what Japan's done on baseball in The United States between the two countries sharing a cultural attraction. So I'll just go through it. And Japan now, because the prime minister had the audacity to say publicly, which we have tried for thirty years to get a Japanese prime minister to say publicly that a move on Taiwan would be a national security threat. She says it. China goes crazy because she said publicly, well, Xi never wanted it announced for domestic reasons. They're now under economic coercion, political coercion, and military intimidation. You have to get there to be, and it's not just and I'm not I'm happy the administration has decided to support the yen and intervention. I think there's a lot of self interest as it relates to our treasuries and our dollars and the pressure on our treasuries right now because of the amount of debt we have. But we have to do more from a military training, from, when Russia and China are doing exercises around the Senkaku Islands that we're just not present for. David Friedberg (00:28:49): Can we go over to Europe for a minute before we talk about Rahm Emanuel (00:28:52): This is your show. Do whatever you want. David Friedberg (00:28:54): Domestic issues. I do wanna talk about domestic issues, particularly the economy and government spending's interaction with the economy. But before we do, there's an argument that Europe is in this kind of state of irreversible decay. And many have indicated points that I think are counter to your kind of characterization of the AFD party in Germany being a neo Nazi party, that that party is really a response to an open border policy in Europe, an open immigration policy that many would say has really drained resources, has diluted culture. Rahm Emanuel (00:29:30): Right? David, for let let me say one thing. David Friedberg (00:29:33): Yeah, please. Rahm Emanuel (00:29:34): The German intelligence agency has the AFD under watch. Forget whether I characterize it as a neo Nazi. You don't wanna buy it. David Friedberg (00:29:41): Well, the US intelligence also had Donald Trump under watch. Right? So, I mean, like But lot of ways a lot of ways we could paint that. Yeah. Rahm Emanuel (00:29:48): Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. There's a lot of ways. David Friedberg (00:29:50): Yeah. But I'm not I'm not not trying to be supportive of the party. I'm trying to indicate that there's a reaction to something going on in Europe. And I I yeah. Rahm Emanuel (00:29:58): That there's no doubt about both on the cultural side and economic side, there's a reaction in Europe like there is here in The United States. David Friedberg (00:30:04): And so what's your view on where Europe is, how immigration played a role, and where things are going in Europe? Rahm Emanuel (00:30:09): Look, think immigration played a role in the same way that I think economic stagnation played a role. And I think that and this is also somewhat as we get as we transition closer to home before we keep pushing Iran off, and we'll do that. But look. You look at what has happened to incomes where here in this country, we have a greater share now of Americans living paycheck to paycheck. That David Friedberg (00:30:41): has Almost two thirds. I think it's 63% of Yeah. Rahm Emanuel (00:30:45): And so that has changed our politics, and it's changed our cultural landscape. So do I think immigration plays a role? A 100%, it does play a role. I also think stagnating incomes when there's greater concentration, not just of wealth, but greater concentration where the political system is skewed towards that wealth, all of that gets mixed into the stew. There isn't a separate soup dish for immigration separate from the dish on, you know, incomes, economic growth, GDP, etcetera. I mean, Europe, here's my thing. I think the former Italian prime minister, Draghi, wrote a good plan for the EU. It is in our interest for a strong, robust European based economies to be technologically and otherwise contributors to the to the western system. If I'm right about a block, you don't want hanger ons. You want people that are actually rolling. And so I happen to believe Europe is important for America's security, important for our economic prosperity, most importantly, and we want them to be competitive. I do think they have participated in their own kind of suffocation. David Friedberg (00:32:05): Just on this point, Ram, because this idea that Europe is committing suicide has kind of taken form in the political narrative that's Rahm Emanuel (00:32:15): being Do do disagree with that? David Friedberg (00:32:17): I think I I think Europe has made policy decisions that are not so yeah. So let me ask. The the policies are arguably leftist policies. They're policies that come from the left. The the energy policy that gutted Germany's nuclear power production and made them dependent on Russian energy was an insane set of policy decisions. The idea that you will provide public services and public welfare programs while opening the borders to increase the population for nonproductive people to come in and then drain those resources. And then, you know, there's all the cultural dilution stuff, which I think but the idea that AFD and other parties in Europe are arising out of Rahm Emanuel (00:33:13): Yeah. But here here Like, here's Jason Calacanis (00:33:15): the But you're saying open borders, Friberg, are a leftist policy for the last forty years. That's been a Republican policy to let as many people into the country as possible Rahm Emanuel (00:33:24): to achieve labor. Wait a second. Yeah. Is the party affiliation of Angela Merkel a mystery to you, David? David Friedberg (00:33:32): Right. Rahm Emanuel (00:33:33): Oh, no. Wait a second. You made this broad brush attack about the left. Angela Merkel came out of the Christian Democrat, the conservatives. David Friedberg (00:33:42): Right. Two. Rahm Emanuel (00:33:43): It was her decision to cut the wait. No. Wait a second. You're making a point that is I I apologize. This will be the last time I'm on your show. Historically wrong. David Friedberg (00:33:51): That's fair enough. Rahm Emanuel (00:33:52): Okay. David Friedberg (00:33:53): You're well you're you're welcome to tell me I'm wrong. Rahm Emanuel (00:33:55): I'm well, good. Put on your seat belt. I'm enjoying this right now. It's like therapy. Okay? She's from the CDU. And when the Syrian 1,000,000 people that come out of Syria, she says we can handle this. That's a that's from the Christian Democratic Union, the conservative element, Coal's party. Number two, after the nuclear facility in Japan has its meltdown, she shuts down the nuclear facilities and makes Germany much more dependent on Russian energy, and we were the ones that warned against it. So don't tell me this is from the left. You're wrong. David Friedberg (00:34:37): There was a lot of antinuclear rhetoric coming for a long time, just to be clear. Rahm Emanuel (00:34:41): But but who's who's the chancellor that said shut it down? David Friedberg (00:34:45): Yeah. Who? That was No. Who? Merkel. Merkel. Yes. Rahm Emanuel (00:34:49): What party is she from? David Friedberg (00:34:50): The Christian Democrat Union. Rahm Emanuel (00:34:52): What what what part of the political landscape? Left or center or right? David Friedberg (00:34:56): Well, nowadays I would say But far No. This is this is crap you're selling. You would probably want to characterize it. But I think the argument yeah. Rahm Emanuel (00:35:06): Your basic argument let me say let me now that I've decided to score my Emmanuel points on you, let me back up. David Friedberg (00:35:12): And immigration. And immigration, I think. Yeah. Rahm Emanuel (00:35:14): Yeah. She did. She opened the borders when she should have been a more thoughtful process. Look, the one thing we know I'm gonna speak at home about immigration. Look. People don't like disorder. They don't like it on the border, and they don't like it on the streets of Minneapolis. And Europe responded to the disorder, whether that's in Stockholm, whether that's in Berlin, that it seemed way out of that Europe is a very welcoming con continent, but it looked out totally out of control as you saw just this weekend vis a vis Morocco. Okay? So that's not a surprise. But to say that this is leftist is just not accurate. Brussels, on the economic front, while they were trying to regulate, suffocated innovation, entrepreneurship, and competitiveness, and they're trying to correct that now. Where I find fault with us and the not us being through the Trump administration is we are exacerbating their tensions when they're trying to deal with it. Germany today is losing I I read a story, and I gotta remember the number right. I think it's five to 10,000 manufacturing jobs a month to Chinese pressure. That should be an opportunity for us to come in and say, let's work together and confront China, not independently, but together. We're not doing that. We're we're meeting. Our our vice president nine days before election is meeting with the AFD. When there's race problems in Great Britain, we're exacerbating them. When Maloney is dealing with some stuff domestically, we attack her. What's the political That's the that's there, Ram. Jason Calacanis (00:36:46): Why why does Trump do that? Rahm Emanuel (00:36:48): I look. I think this Jason Calacanis (00:36:49): is What's the strategy in his part? If there is any. Rahm Emanuel (00:36:52): Jason, I I have said this before, and I'm gonna repeat. This president punches down and kisses up. He has this fixation about Putin and Xi admiring him as an equal, and they think he's a joke. They think he is not their equal. America is their superior, but he is not their equal. He then takes a Lula in Brazil, Mertz in or a Maloney or a Carney or a Scheinbaum, and he punches down because he thinks if you're a middle power, I'm gonna show how big and bad I am. He is nothing but a bully, and nobody's buying it anymore. Everybody is looking at the emperor wearing no clothes. Jason Calacanis (00:37:36): Which I guess would be a great point for us to wrap Rahm Emanuel (00:37:38): strategy to this. Yeah. This is all his insecurities. Jason Calacanis (00:37:41): He's just winging it. Okay. So let's do Iran and then go to The United States. Rahm Emanuel (00:37:46): I know. I was kinda feeling I was feeling good beating up David there for a second. Jason Calacanis (00:37:50): Well, no. I mean, listen. This is why we're here. David Friedberg (00:37:52): I tell you I will tell you, if you showed me Angela Merkel's decisions on a blank sheet of paper, I would say that's a leftist Rahm Emanuel (00:38:00): pro No. But you That's Here's what I would say. David Friedberg (00:38:02): Okay. So I would say, like and and I would say across Europe across Europe, there Yeah. There has been almost this, like I don't know how to describe. And what I'm trying to understand is also the psychology versus the foreign influence on these suicidal policy decisions that seem to be wrapped up in what are prescribed leftist notions that end up becoming policy actions at scale and Jason Calacanis (00:38:26): maybe And specifically, you're talking about immigration. So let's just go right at immigration. David Friedberg (00:38:30): Economic decisions, energy decisions, immigration decisions. The the core so let's talk about defense decisions. Jason Calacanis (00:38:37): Okay, Ram. Let's just tackle one thing at a time. Immigration is a critically important one. I think we've gone from too hot, too cold. Americans didn't like an open border, as you pointed out, chaos. They also hate the chaos just according to surveys that ICE dragging people, you know, out of their homes and taking people who are picking strawberries and, you know, just basically beating the shit out of Americans. And in some cases, these I guess we've had four deaths, and they'll be adjudicated over time. But I wanna know what your solution is to immigration. We have president Trump on this podcast. He promised we'd put a green card on every diploma of every immigrant coming here, and then they reneged on that. And they've been trying to essentially kick out some of these best and brightest we've brought here, which has a negative impact on our ability to build great companies in Silicon Valley, etcetera. Almost all the great entrepreneurs we have are either immigrants or sons of immigrants like my friend David Friedberg here. So tell us what is Rahm Emanuel's plan for immigration post this hot and cold that we've had? Is there like a Goldilocks zone? Rahm Emanuel (00:39:46): Yeah. Well, I actually, bizarrely, I'm like the last optimist that you could actually get a deal legislatively. I start with two principles. We're a nation of laws and a nation of immigrants. And whatever we do on legal and illegal has to be true to both. Nobody likes people breaking the laws and giving a pass, and I'm included. You're looking at the guy for president Clinton that designed Operation Gatekeeper in San Diego, Operation Safeguard in Nogales, Arizona, did the stuff in El Paso. I'm my view. And then also the resources at the workplace. Tough borders, tough enforcement. There's a thing called the Dignity Act, has 23 Republicans, 23 Democrats in the house. It's true to being a nation of laws and a nation of immigrants. Is it the bill that Jason would write? No. Is it a bill that Rahm Emanuel would write? No. But does it achieve the goal? Yeah. So everybody else is hiding using rhetoric. I endorsed it. Now if you were doing politics and thinking of it, you would stay away from this and use just tabloids. But to me, we got to get this problem behind us so we have a future in front of us. You got 23 Republicans that signed on to certain things around legal and certain things around illegal. Does it tilt from the first time when the Democrats were the majority a little more to the Republican side? Yeah. They're now the majority. Now could you tilt it back to the original? Yeah. And you need leadership out of the White House, not just coming on this show of president Trump speaking pablum and never really following through like he did on Dreamers, like he did on Green Card on every diploma. Legal immigration, getting the best and the brightest, going back to our China example, all these people that are leading leading China's life sciences came out of The United States trained, worked in our life sciences. Rahm Emanuel (00:41:41): We kicked them out like fools. Okay, so to me, pass the Dignity Act. Don't mess with it. And again, I want to be clear. It is not the bill I would write if I was sitting down at my keyboard. Does it accomplish the goal I set out? Is it a true compromise? Yes. Do we finally do what we have to do at the border? Correct. Does it finally do what we have to do to attract the best and the brightest? Yes. And that to me would stop the civil war. Jason Calacanis (00:42:17): What about a point based system? It seems like all the great high functioning immigration countries in the world have a point based system. And even Japan, I just learned on my last trip a couple weeks ago, they're gonna require you have to speak the language fluently to get those jobs, and there's so many people who wanna go to their great nation. They've kept it pretty tight, and, they force people, to assimilate. So what's your views on assimilation, speaking the language, and point based system? David Friedberg (00:42:44): Well well Jason Calacanis (00:42:45): Any lessons there from Japan? Rahm Emanuel (00:42:47): I think the best lesson for The United States, if I could but there's there's lessons. Now remember, because you're touching something that's also both legal, etcetera, but it's also historic and cultural. I don't think Japan is a perfect analogy No. Given it's an island. I think if you're looking for something analogous, the two countries I would say that we have a lot to learn on to emulate as well as is both Canada that has somewhat of a point system, their variation, their signature on it, a Canadian signature, and Denmark. And so if you're asking me and look. Japan has 98% homogeneous society, only like 3,700,000 immigrants, and they think they have an immigration problem. You look at The United States on a demo on a kind of just a quantitative look. It's, like, totally different. So I I look at the Canadian system, well, how Canada, because of our system or our dysfunction, is now attracting what used to be the talent that would come to America, the ability to study in America. I actually think the Canadian model, the Danish model closer to where we get the best practices and lessons learned. The Dignity Act does some of that. Now I'll give you an example. This is not about immigration, but it's something I spoke about when it came to affordability for higher education. I would let universities, colleges across The United States go up, set a goal, you can go up to 20% foreign students. Today, some of them are six, some are more. I don't care how you divide it between your grad and undergrad. That's up to you, yours. But those students pay full play. They pay full price. It would subsidize our ability to get American students, get a three year BA rather than a four year saving mom and dad a year's worth of tuition because the foreign students pay full full boat and they want the American brand. So and given that they came here to study, they would more likely wanna stay and then start building this country economically, as you said, from the technology and other type of companies across The United States. A lot of immigrants and children of immigrants came because of the university system, and that's a that is a political power and persuasion and capacity The United States has underinvested in. So I kinda look the the short answer is Canada and Denmark are the better, examples. The dignity act, I don't wanna sit here and go through the bill with you and rip it apart. Rahm Emanuel (00:45:33): But a, that does it. B, I wanna be very clear. If you control the border, you send a signal that people who break the law don't get rewarded. And I I am so angry at our part my party, not only losing control of the border, but in the 2020 debate, raising your hand and saying I'm gonna give health care to people that cross illegally. From a forget the immigration policy, the value system. You have American families suffocating under health care costs. Not everybody universally covered, but may were significantly well on our way there. And you're talking about free health care to having crossed the border illegally? At every level, that was foolish by the party. Jason Calacanis (00:46:22): Freeburg, you're up. Rahm Emanuel (00:46:25): Can you Jason, I'd like you to start referring to him as David. Okay? A little more a little Jason Calacanis (00:46:30): more common problem. We got a Saxon of Freeburg, so you said your last name. Rahm Emanuel (00:46:34): I'm I'm not that's not that's your problem. I just free I just Freiburg is so insensitive to and we've clearly proved that David has a lot of sensitivity on David Friedberg (00:46:43): this show. I I am Rahm Emanuel (00:46:44): very sensitive. David Friedberg (00:46:45): I am I I always tell people I'm probably the the the last person to ever get offended by anything. But Rahm Emanuel (00:46:52): Mhmm. David Friedberg (00:46:53): Jason always offends me off the bat. So, Ram, I will start by just a framing, and it's a contention I'd like you to disagree with that Rahm Emanuel (00:47:01): I disagree. David Friedberg (00:47:02): Yeah. Federal this is debate club. So no matter what I say, you are to disagree. Okay? Rahm Emanuel (00:47:08): And let's can we establish a fact? Angela Merkel came came out of the CDU. David Friedberg (00:47:13): I I would establish a fact that I consider Angela Merkel a leftist, but we'll we'll Jason Calacanis (00:47:17): we'll Well, David Friedberg (00:47:17): I mean, it does speak to Rahm Emanuel (00:47:19): I think And we'll accept that. Jason Calacanis (00:47:20): What defines each of these parties? I mean, you were part of a party that the Democrats, you know, in, I think, they're the the peak moderate era that wanted to balance the budget, that wanted the border to be controlled, and that wanted to have, you know, globalism, you know, and now that seems to be half Trump's. Rahm Emanuel (00:47:39): I mean, Jason Calacanis (00:47:39): it's hard to define these parties anymore, especially with Rahm Emanuel (00:47:41): social media. Why I think act actually categories like saying these are leftist policies is actually all broke all wasted and broken. But go ahead, David. David Friedberg (00:47:49): Yeah. No. Because, I mean, even in the Trump administration, we're taking equity stakes in companies, which is Yeah. Not a typical free free market conservative view. But let me just frame this up. So I would argue that over the last thirty years, where the government spends more to try and make things more accessible to American citizens, the cost of those things goes up in a disproportionate way. The average rate of inflation in the last thirty years has been two and a half percent, but housing's gone up by at least 5% a year on average compounding, education over 6%, healthcare five and a half percent. And all three of these categories are categories where the federal government has launched programs to either subsidize or make available these categories of services to people through promises. You are going to all have a home. You are all going to have education. You are going to all have health care. And the more that the government provides, 300,000,000,000 a year in housing support, 200,000,000,000 a year in education, over a trillion dollars, $2,000,000,000,000 almost in health care, the more things get more expensive. And so is it really the role of the government to provide these services or get the f out of the way and let the market work? Because in all the places where the government hasn't launched services, hasn't provided support, hasn't provided loans like technology, energy, food, consumer services. We've seen a net decrease in total cost. And so deflation actually works when you let markets work. But when the government comes in and tries to rally up markets to provide more to more people, things simply get more expensive. Rahm Emanuel (00:49:25): Okay. David Friedberg (00:49:25): Tell tell me why Rahm Emanuel (00:49:26): I'm wrong. You're wrong. And let me first of all, the GI bill was a government initiative. Massive increase in housing and home ownership in America. Would you have recommended after World War II, for those who served overseas, no GI bill because the market will take care of your housing needs? It also had an education component. Number two, when you said we don't have a food costs went down and the government was involved. What do you consider the agricultural bill that subsidized growing of food in The United States to big agra? David Friedberg (00:50:02): Well, I know that bill very well, but we we we could debate that bill if you'd like. Rahm Emanuel (00:50:05): No. No. Two, you say we're not involved in energy. Well, we have a tax write off for drilling. We're involved in energy. That's just not true. David Friedberg (00:50:14): You you could make that case about everything wrong. Like, could say we touch everything, but our total dollar spend our total dollar spend is what I'm talking Rahm Emanuel (00:50:20): That's why your analogies are wrong and be that right. Now I happen to think that the United States government and there's a balance between both the private sector and the public sector. And this balance is trying to when the forces in concentration of both power and wealth get too much, you and I'm just having opened up the Teddy Roosevelt library, etcetera. That was a redefinition of what the government does to come to the aid of those who are most not just vulnerable, but vulnerable to the concentration of power. Now to housing, there is where the government has messed up, and this is not on the national level, but on the local level, it has made it both when you get things like in San Francisco, like in New York, you have a concentration of and a really do an economy that's doing well, but restrictive laws as it relates to zoning, building, permitting that drive up costs. Not the only reason, but a contributor significantly contributing factor. Now I'm not mayor today, but if I was mayor of Chicago, I would say, okay. I'm gonna put all our zoning laws, all our building laws, and all our permitting planning laws. I'm gonna measure them up against Dallas, Houston, and Phoenix. You tell me what we have and why they don't have it and why we have it and they don't have it. And if you can't justify it, get it the hell out of here. I would also do things because I think the biggest problem we have in housing is first time homeownership. And that is a post financial two thousand eight meltdown. For whatever reason, the market has gone on the high end and the low end, and the first time homeownership is where we are stuck in a sense of new construction. And I actually do think that's a place where both the public and private sector together needs to address a problem that has been now around for almost twenty years, and the private sector on their own have been fixed. Rahm Emanuel (00:52:36): And so I don't agree with your analogies, and I do believe now there's places where the government gets in its own way, and there's places in which it should be targeted to incentivize the private sector to address those problems. Now I that's where I would go in addressing that. David Friedberg (00:52:55): But I do education wrong. What yeah. Go ahead. Rahm Emanuel (00:52:58): Oh, I was turning my attention there. David Friedberg (00:53:00): Okay. Rahm Emanuel (00:53:02): Now look. I spent $8.08 years in every day, every hour working, fixing an education system that was broken. And when I was done, Stanford called it the single best. Sean Reardon there at Stanford, the single best education system of the top 100. We drove by example. We drove our graduation rates from fifty six to eighty three percent. We were over our reading and math scores at every one of the elementary levels. I'm doing this by memory so I could be slightly wrong. It's in the report. But we were six months ahead of our peers. And trust me, that is not easy to achieve. Now I'm gonna go to Louisiana at the end of September because it's the only state who's reading MMAT scores have gone up to pre COVID level to find out what they're doing. Like, I went to Mississippi. On the higher ed on the elementary level, one is we created kid full day kindergarten, free full day pre k. I'm a very big believer in early childhood. In the elementary years, three things. Universal accountability, not just teachers, parents, principals, and the schools. Two, reboot our teacher education and training so it's constant, not just one and done, and the teacher training today is really flat. Give the teachers the support so they know what to do on the subjects they're supposed to do. Constantly train them. It's not and redo reboot the entire teacher training program starting in our colleges. Three is braid the resources together so states and cities can meld it because what happens on the South Side or West Side Of Chicago or what happens in our suburbs or what happens in some of our best schools like Northside and Peyton just isn't the same students, and poor students need more resources, but accountability through the system. Now fourth, nobody wants to talk about it. Guess what? You gotta be at this every day. Rahm Emanuel (00:55:07): This is a twenty year project, not a two year project. That's what Mississippi and Louisiana showed us. High school, fundamental reform. Elementary, stay with the fundamentals. High school, we drove 50% of our kids, which was our goal, were graduating with college credit on a high school day. I'd set a goal as if if I decide to do this, a 100% of our kids will graduate high school with college credit through dual credit and dual enrollment with our local community colleges of which are 1,200. Second, we're the only school district in America that set this up and had to make it a national requirement. Nobody graduates and gets a high school diploma without showing a letter of acceptance from a college, a community college, a branch of the armed forces, or vocational school. Every child, not just Jason, David, and Rams, has a plan. They know where they're walking to when they're walking on graduation day. Universal post high school education. I and now we hired a huge amount of college careers in the city of Chicago, but we accomplished 98% compliance with it. Third, take $8,000,000,000 you're wasting on detention centers at the ICE and modernise our community college systems, both the campuses, the curriculum, and the relevancy it has to the industries in and around. Finally, fifth, higher education. 20% foreign students you're allowed up to. Two, identify 10% of the stuff that you do pay for in complying with the federal government. You keep a 100% of those dollars. Three. If a child graduates with 20 college credits from high school, that child is open to a three year BA, not a four year, saving mom and dad the equivalent of a full year of tuition. Oxford and Cambridge do three year BAs. Second, if your income is below 200,000, you're gonna go to college for free. Fourth or third, finally in that area, if your income's above 200,000, it does each year doesn't go above inflation. That's what I would do on education. Get kids minimum four years, ideally three, in universal pre k, return to the fundamentals, stay at it, bring accountability and standards back into the school system, revamp our high school years into college career, not just diploma driven with two to three examples. The best one I also did, first and only school district, first city to do it. Rahm Emanuel (00:57:53): You gotta be average at high school and make community college free. The goal here is to take the high school years when you lose students in the community colleges and meld them so kids are graduating high school with college credit, prepared for the next step in their life. 80% of all the jobs require some education minimum of two years post high school, and we've done nothing to revamp our high school years since Teddy Roosevelt. That's kind of top to bottom. Yeah. It may and no child, no student of any income or background is left out of that. You wanna go to college and then be an engineer? Great. You wanna be a nurse? Jason Calacanis (00:58:32): You wanna be a carpenter? David Friedberg (00:58:33): As you pour more of these dollars into the community colleges, into the Federal Student Loan Program, the administrative staff continues to bloat. We've seen administrative staff grow from 10 to 60% in the last thirty years, as they've had no limits on spending because the Federal Student Loan Program doesn't provide a criteria that says, if your tuition costs too much, if your school isn't that good, etcetera, etcetera, we we restrict your access to this loan program. The loan program is so unrestricted Yeah. But it provides a fuel for the fire. Okay. For cost, that is. For cost. Rahm Emanuel (00:59:05): Right. Okay. I just sat there and told you okay. Great. Now let me ask you. You haven't addressed the fact that 50% of our kids can't read at grade level. You want to talk to me about it, Oh no, no, wait a second. Wait a second, David. The way you asked that question told me where your priorities are. Your priorities, okay, I want to talk about student level. David Friedberg (00:59:25): Higher education, higher education. I'm not talking about the, I'm not talking about Jason Calacanis (00:59:29): the kids Rahm Emanuel (00:59:30): at the kitchen. Well, get I get you're not talking about it, but there's a lot of parents sitting around the kitchen table talking about it. David Friedberg (00:59:36): I'm talking about costs, Ross. Cost costs and higher education. That's it. That's all I'm talking about. Rahm Emanuel (00:59:40): I just gave you a plan. Ask anybody that gets on your show. I just gave you a plan on how to control costs. None of it dealt with the student loan program. It dealt with the fact that we cut our nose off despite our face by not letting foreign students come in and pay full price, which are squeezing our colleges. You get up to 20%. You decide how you want to do it. You can identify 10% of the savings that you comply with federal government. You keep 100% of the cost. But here's what you're going to do different. Can get that wait a second. I get the this is the answer part to the question part. Go for it. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. You want to get to college? Revamp what goes on in not only the elementary years, but the high school years. You know when kids drop out of college, David? Third grade. That's when they start dropping out. And when you have 50% of your kids not reading at grade level, college cost is not your problem. We're going to compete against China with 50% of our kids not reading. I'm sorry, that's not how you beat a country that's three times your size. David Friedberg (01:00:37): Yes, we need to fix that issue. But like just taking a zoom out, so my concern arises Rahm Emanuel (01:00:44): Kids drop out of college in third grade, David. David Friedberg (01:00:46): Yeah. I'm not talking about dropping out of college. I'm talking about how much we spend on administrative bullshitting colleges and how much we've allowed it to inflate. And that ultimately leads to a cost and an accessibility problem to higher education, Ram. Because as it gets to be thirty, forty, sixty, eighty thousand dollars a year for a kid to go to school Rahm Emanuel (01:01:04): Two things. You are talking about costs. That is a problem. To me, the problem is that we've given up on 50% of our kids. Fair enough. David Friedberg (01:01:15): That's a fair statement. It's a fair statement. Okay. I Rahm Emanuel (01:01:17): What you identified is a problem. I'm identifying the problem. Number two, in my view. I have spent more time on the subject of education as I wanted to be an early childhood educator when I went to college. And I took a system that William Bennett called the single worst in America to where Sean Ritter and Stanford called it the single best of the top 100. And it took everything on my soul to get it there. Yeah. We need to take the high school years, let alone the standards and accountability in the elementary years, and revamp them as in the three things I talked about that fit together. B average, community college is free. 50%, which I would set as a goal is a 100, have to graduate with college credit under their belt. And third, nobody gets a diploma that doesn't tell us what they're doing next. College, community college, branch of the armed forces certification school. I'm not just about college. You're 500,000 to 600,000 electricians short just for data centres. Broadband, 150,000. You can't build submarines because we don't have pipe fitters and plumbers. Okay? So you want to be a pipe fitter? Great. You want to be a physician? Great. You want to be a physical therapist? Great. Have an education system that actually reflects the economy and skills that we need. David Friedberg (01:02:39): Yeah, that's a good point. And my concern, Ram, comes Wait, from Jason Calacanis (01:02:43): a can we end it there? Rahm Emanuel (01:02:44): Since you said it was a No. No. No. No. No. Get the go You David Friedberg (01:02:47): a lot of you make a lot of great points and you make some that I disagree with, but that's what we're all about. And as I zoom out, I mean, I look at our $7,000,000,000,000 a year spend in the federal government, 5,000,000,000,000 a year in revenue. We're 2,000,000,000,000 short. We've got 40,000,000,000,000 of debt, thirty years at 5%. That's 2,000,000,000,000 a year in interest expense. We have to figure out a way to reconcile the fiscal condition of the federal government to have a future for our kids. So for me, every everything comes down to this, like, cost model. And I'm like, where are we spending money that we're inflating costs? And it doesn't make sense to do it. So, you know, we Rahm Emanuel (01:03:19): could I have I have a slate. Jason Calacanis (01:03:20): Look. And by the way, Ram, this was something that Trump promised he would do with Doge and other cuts, and this is only increasing Rahm Emanuel (01:03:28): It was it was all it was all steak oil salesman. Look, I don't accept redistribution, and I don't accept the corruption. You can't have capitalism or economic freedom with corruption as a grounding principle. It's against the rule of law, which is key to capitalism and economic freedom. And redistribution doesn't solve anything as it relates to growth. I believe in five things that are essential to grow the economy and grow incomes, and so people are no longer living paycheck to paycheck. One, everything we just talked about on education and training from pre k to BA. Two, the Dignity Act, as I said, as it relates to immigration. Three, modernise our energy system. Vis a vis Texas is the best example in The United States, And I said that. Three or 10% levy on all predictive markets and online sport gaming, and it has to go to the NIH, National Science Foundation and DARPA. Double our dollars into research. Fifth, a tax code that does not reward wealth preservation but wealth creation. This tax code is an abomination as it relates to economic freedom. Control the overall spending for the next five years so it can't grow and start making some tough choices within the system. I told you, you don't support it, I would not spend $38,000,000,000 on detention centres nobody wants. I would take eight of it as a starting point and modernise the 1,200 community colleges throughout the country that are the economic backbone of La Crosse, Wisconsin, Spartanburg, South Carolina. Go down the list. I've seen it firsthand because we did it in our community colleges. The World Bank called it the best college career program in America. That to me is what we should be doing, and we're going to make some tough choices. I don't believe in sending ICE agents out with $50,000 bonuses, when I'd rather give a bonus to signing up to be a carpenter electrician. That's more important to America's future than some masked man running around the streets of Minneapolis. David Friedberg (01:05:37): What's the politics of this? How do you get Congress to come along? Because for years, we've heard a lot of points from both parties about we are gonna rationalize spending. We are gonna do the right thing. We are gonna get ourselves out of the deficit. We are going to make things economically viable for The United States, for people who are gonna advance. Everyone's got great ideas. But when push comes to shove, representatives of their district or of their state end up saying, I'm gonna give more to my people in order to get reelected, and the budget goes up and up and up. Rahm Emanuel (01:06:03): David David, here's the thing, which is unfortunate about American politics. As a person that coined the term never allow a good crisis to go to waste, it's the opportunity to do a big thing. Look. I believe the surplus created sloppiness that Bill Clinton left. We try to fight two wars with two tax cuts. Really stupid. Never been done in American history, and that's the beginning of a wild we went from a surplus that Alan Greenspan described would be a a danger to America because of the ten year treasury note to running $38,000,000,000,000 of deficit from a surplus to that because it was reckless. We fought Iraq and Afghanistan with two tax cuts. Never tried in American history. And it proved to be stupid. Now, that crisis is coming due. And it's going to force some really tough things on the system. And we cannot have, while also AI is hovering, a further concentration of wealth to a very few. Can't happen because you can't get to the fiscal sensibility you want just talking about cutting. Not just because of politics, because it's not right and it won't work. So we're going have to actually deal with the revenue side as well as the spend side. I gave you a cap, but we have a tax code that everybody on this show, me included, are rewarded for preserving wealth, passing it on. There was a story the other day in the Wall Street Journal six weeks ago. Retreats are being organised to help kids figure out how to handle their inheritance. Yeah. You have got to be kidding me. And we have a tax code that favours that. You are the idiot if you don't take advantage of preserving your wealth and passing it on from one generation to another. And you all know this. We all know it. The step up basis is a way to avoid all taxes when everybody else is working for a living and can't make monthly pay bills. So it's going to hit everybody. And you're gonna make some changes. Jason Calacanis (01:08:12): One thing I was, as most capitalists, not concerned with was minimum wage because I just thought, well, the free market will work that out. And then after watching it raise in cities in The United States and what's going on in New Zealand and The Nordic countries. All of the studies now show when you go to 12 to $20 an hour, there's no difference. It doesn't cause any economic hardship, for those companies, and it doesn't cause unemployment or automation. So what's your take on the federal minimum wage being raised? Rahm Emanuel (01:08:40): Three things. I worked with Bill Clinton when we raised it. When Nancy Pelosi and I helped make her speaker, that was the last time it was raised. It was seven and quarter. When I was mayor, I raised it. I'm a big believer not only in the raising the minimum wage. I would raise it and have it go up each year as we did in Chicago, coupled with a very generous earned income tax credit. That's what makes work pay. So a minimum wage with a very robust earned income tax credit, of which I would if I was, you know, waving a magic wand, I would take the earned income tax credit, the per child tax deduction, and do a single family credit. So it's all at one thing. David Friedberg (01:09:22): I think we should talk about DSA before we wrap. Rahm Emanuel (01:09:25): You know, last weekend in Chicago, the DSA held a convention. You're not Democrats. You're a separate party. I'll see you in November. You're living you're literally beating Democrats. Forget about it. Not interested in it. I I spent my whole life, Bill Clinton replacing George Bush, Barack Obama competing against John McCain, flipping 31 districts from red congressman to blue congressman, so Nancy Pelosi will be the speaker. I am not into turning a blue district midnight blue. It doesn't do anything for a minimum wage. It doesn't do anything for universal pre k. It doesn't do anything to give 10,000,000 children who didn't have health care health care. So I'm not impressed. You are a separate party. You're the Democratic Socialist of America. I'll see you in November on the ballot. You had a party convention. You are not a Democrat. And there was a person the other day in Tom Metzl's party in Tom Metzl's column, who a justice Democrat part of the DSA network, who said they're not interested in beating Republicans. Well, now I appreciate the honesty. I am. I think Donald Trump is an existential crisis. You think Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, Hakim Jeffries are an existential crisis. I don't. And we have a fundamental strategic difference. We have a fundamental policy difference. And we have a fundamental political difference. Go to your own party. Stay there. I'll see you in November. Jason Calacanis (01:10:58): There you have, folks, Over an hour with Rahm Emanuele. We will have you back in the coming months and years. I don't think David will. This has been amazing, and we gotta get you on with Chamath and Saks next. Thank you so much, Rahm. Rahm Emanuel (01:11:10): Thanks, guys. I'm doing all of it. Jason Calacanis (01:11:13): Alright, besties. I think that was another epic discussion. People love the interviews. I could hear him talk for hours. Absolutely. Rahm Emanuel (01:11:20): We crushed your questions in a minute. David Friedberg (01:11:22): We are giving people ground truth data to underwrite your own opinion. What'd you guys say? Jason Calacanis (01:11:26): That was fun. How much credit?

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