粮食短缺、中国的宏大计划、通胀、法国大选与 All-In 峰会前瞻

Jason Calacanis (00:00:00): Alright. What? Oh, I'm doing this again? Alright. Listen. It's a 2 parter. You you listen to the first part. Now this is the second part. episode 76.5, if you will. This is our first ever 2 parter, part 2 of our 2 parter. You already listened to part 1 of episode 76 that's Elon and Twitter. Lots of details there. And now we're gonna cover some more topics including the global food crisis, China's plan. to stockpile a bunch of food, geopolitics while around the horn, French election, Germany, etcetera. And then we'll go into details about a little bit of the drama and details pagearanty, parties, poker, all the good stuff of the all in summit. Coming soon Okay. Enjoy the show. Buddy, I'll see you on 1. David Sacks (00:00:45): The weather winter's ride. Rainman Chamath Palihapitiya (00:00:48): David Sachs. David Sacks (00:00:52): And I said, we open source it to the fans and make discoveries. Love US Ice Cream Jason Calacanis (00:01:00): There's still a war raging, but I wanted to get an update from Friedberg on the food crisis, which he predicted very early, fertilizer prices are still climbing like crazy. There's been some food writing in China which I think is a separate issue he'll educate us in a minute Sri Lanka. So what is your theory of what we're gonna do from here, Friedberg? Because I think we're all waiting for this shoe to drop, and I think you predicted this is something that we would experience into the fall and into next year. So when when are we gonna actually see these food riots occurring? And then as China's food riots have anything to do with does that have to do what David Friedberg (00:01:42): they -- Yeah. Jason Calacanis (00:01:42): I I I David Friedberg (00:01:43): would put the Chinese food riots as kind of a separate localized supply chain problem related to the lockdowns. Jason Calacanis (00:01:48): Got it. David Friedberg (00:01:49): But we're definitely you know, I I think I mentioned last week the USDA planting report showing in the US how acreage is being reduced on corn. and and and we're seeing this around the world where acres are coming out of production or less fertilizers being used, which means less food's being made. So everything that we predicted. I mean, this is a slow train, a Titanic into the iceberg that we're watching right now. And it's gonna continue for 9 to 18 months So, you know, one of the questions that people are now asking, which I said, you know, would become a really critical next step in this crisis. is how are we gonna bridge the gap in calories? Where's the food gonna come from? And how are we gonna feed nations that are almost entirely dependent on imports that are running out of food or out of food. So I've mentioned this in the past, the whole world runs on a 90 day food supply, which means roughly 25% of the world's calories are in storage right now. but that's not the case uniformly. So some countries like Tunisia and Somalia, Ethiopia, have close to 0 calories in storage. Some countries like the United States are roughly, you know, 30, 40% of our you know, annual consumed calories are sitting in storage, China is a complete outlier. For years, China has been stockpiling food And at this point, China has a 150 percent of their annual consumption of food in storage. So they have supplies that if all food production and imports stopped in China, they would be able to feed their population for one and a half years. That's an incredible supply of food So if you look around the world to places like Sri Lanka and places like Somalia that are struggling to figure out how are we gonna bridge this gap on calories that's about to hit us, Egypt's 4 months of food, by the way. And Egypt is dwindling. They cannot get the food out of the Black Sea. So China is gonna be one of the very few potential solutions for bridging the calorie gap over the next year. And I have a strong prediction and a strong belief that because of that, China will use it to maximize leverage and we will see over the next year an incredible amount of leverage and power being accumulated by China because of transactions that they're gonna start to enter into to bridge the calorie gap around the world. So in the Horn of Africa, for example, there has been this continuous presence of China trying to give themselves a military base, trying to take some influence over local media, and there's been this kind of push and pull with, you know, certain populations around whether or not we should kind of embrace China locally. David Friedberg (00:04:25): And I think that, for example, the the food crisis that we're seeing emerge in Ethiopia, Somalia, Somalia, or atria, Jabuti, is going to be resolved by China and China is gonna end up gaining influence, gaining military presence, and establishing a more permanent foothold in the Horn of Africa because of the position that they're in of strength with all these calories and the and the need in these regions. That's not just there. Sri Lanka, other parts of Southeast Asia, even Western Africa, Northern Africa, China's gonna show up. And they're only country that can't show up. The UN, the World Food program, they're gonna do everything they can to shuffle calories around, change food supplies. But I do think that one of the things that everyone's gonna be watching, and it's it's a slow roll. This isn't gonna be some one big deal and everyone wakes up. Over the next year, While the US is, you know, trying to do everything we can to a maximally impose sanctions on Russia, China is slowly turning the crank around the world on the influence that they are going to gain because of this food crisis and the absolute, you know, surplus that they have locally and the ability to export that surplus to support needs around the world, and it's not gonna be free. It's not gonna be cheap. So I I thought it was worth highlighting what we're seeing, and I shared a couple of articles with you guys and with Nick articles that no one is paying attention to. And this isn't some conspiratorial oh my god. There's some dangerous thing happening. I'm just pointing out one of the things that's happening as we talk about, you know, the great change in power, the shift in power globally that's happening. it is happening in a very significant way this year given the surplus that China has the dearth that many countries have and the inability for the US to to really adequately respond to the food crisis that that's emerging. And so I thought it was worth bringing to everyone's attention There's a lot of little articles that that support this point. David Friedberg (00:06:14): I shared them with you guys. You guys can put them in the show notes and and put them up on YouTube and whatever. But I think this is gonna become a macro trend that we're gonna wake up to in 6 to 9 months and be like, woah, what the heck happened? You know, how how did China get so much leverage around the world? and and it's it's starting map. David Sacks (00:06:30): That's what happens with every war. You know? We all we go in hot. You know, we you know, Ra Ra, we're all gung ho. And then at some point in time, we're like, wait a second. Why do we do that? You know? Yeah. And, you know, and and look, there's no shortage of of NeoCon's and liberal interventionists were all saying this war is wonderful for us because it's reunited, the American alliance, and the western alliance. and that this has been this war is a good thing for us. Let's keep it going. Let's bleed Russia. Let's topple Putin. Let's stabilize the regime. they they're in favor of protracted conflict that I've been, you know, warning against. And what Friedberg is saying is the longer this conflict goes on, the more of these disaster scenarios are gonna materialize. Jason Calacanis (00:07:16): What do you what what is your take on how crippled Putin is right now, David, just objectively. And, again, you're not a fan of Putin. David Sacks (00:07:24): You -- Listen. Yeah. I love where do you think it's already that. I I I don't know Jason Calacanis (00:07:27): if he wants to ship. Like, I mean, this does not look good for him. It feels like he can't and he's losing all his tanks. I seems like a crazy -- David Sacks (00:07:35): I don't know anything you don't know in terms of you know, I'm just a consumer of information. But I tend to think that we are overly optimistic in the west And, look, the war's clearly gone very bad for Putin. But this idea that everything that magically we're gonna get regime change in Moscow, we're gonna get Gorbachev Jason Calacanis (00:07:52): 2.0, David Sacks (00:07:54): that that is that is an objective worth protecting this war for. I tend to think it's gonna be a mistake. I mean, that that's now Doesn't mean I support Russia's invasion. I've said it's illegal. It's a crime. It's an air violation of international law. It's a humanitarian disaster. But what I've supported is a is a negotiated piece, a settlement that we try to get as quickly as possible. That is clearly not the administration's position on this. They wanna keep this thing going. And, you know, this idea that though that a long war is good for America's alliances, I would disagree with that because you're already seeing All over the world now, people are starting to object to American policy. You saw it with India. And India is the world's largest democracy they should be on our side they definitely should not be on China's side because they have a huge Jason Calacanis (00:08:42): -- They're not. -- David Sacks (00:08:43): late intention. But China and India are both de facto on Russia's side on this. Africa and large parts of Latin America Jason Calacanis (00:08:53): are -- -- would like to have oil. David Sacks (00:08:55): And they -- They would like to maintain their they would like to maintain their relationship with Russia, and they did not support the denunciation of Russia. They would like to see this conflict to end. Large parts of Africa would like to see it end, Latin America. Basically, all the victims, if there's a famine in the world in 6 months like Friedberg is saying, They are all very worried about this. All of them have expressed concern with the American policy, which seems to be to retract for. Jason Calacanis (00:09:19): Okay. And, Friedberg, you have to go do your talk at Berkeley. Congratulations, and we'll see you next time. Thanks for the contribution. Schumab, any thoughts on the CPI? We we set a record that seemed to have gotten lost in the the haze of Twitter. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:09:34): I learned something really interesting that I just wanted to share with you guys. Okay. So there is a big CPI print, obviously. But there was a report of probably not many people read it, but it was about home equity. And the takeaway was that since 2020, Americans have taken 2 430 I think the net exact number is Jason Calacanis (00:09:56): 427. $427,000,000,000 Chamath Palihapitiya (00:09:59): of home equity out of their homes and effectively spent it. So what it what it started to make me think about was, if you look at all of that home equity plus the STEMI checks, plus the unemployment insurance checks, that Starting to explain, I think, why the labor markets are so tight and why people haven't gone back to work, there is no motivation because there's just so much money sloshing around. for them to basically not have to be forced to do any of this stuff that they don't want to anymore. And I think the the thing to keep in mind is, like, that's all what's gone into the stock market. It's also what's driven up the price of used cars, new cars, all of this stuff. I just think that kind of, like, starts to paint a picture of CPI that's really important, which is that it's probably a little bit more transitory than we may actually think. Because when you exhaust all of that extra money that -- Try power. Yeah. There's not as much inflation to be had. And I think most people are now forecasting that inflation is really gonna taper off. And the big warning sign that everybody is sort of, you know, marching towards is, you know, too many excessive rate hikes between now and the end of the year could actually push us into a real recession. And we we were talking about that before, but the probability is now sort of like 1 and 3. Whereas before, I think, you know, David and I sounded a little bit crazy when we were talking about it. So I just wanted to put that out there as something I learned this week that I thought was really important. Work the labor participation rate peaked at Jason Calacanis (00:11:30): 67, 68%. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:11:33): But half a $1,000,000,000,000 at Jason Calacanis (00:11:34): 61? Chamath Palihapitiya (00:11:35): I mean, half a $1,000,000,000,000 of actual spending in the economy. That's a ton of money to be absorbed. Right. Jason Calacanis (00:11:41): If people have a couple of $100 in their bank account who own homes or whatever, there's no need to go back to a job. And if you don't feel safe because you maybe still have some COVID fears or you don't wanna commute or you just out of the rhythm for 2 years, And you're like, I'm kind of enjoying skiing or whatever you're doing, whatever your jam is. Maybe there's no there's no rush to get back. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:11:59): You'll wait until you you'll wait until you exhaust all of that. now. Jason Calacanis (00:12:03): This is a this is a and then we're not as we talked about, we're not letting people into the country at the same time, so you still have 10,000,000 job openings. That flips, that would be economic activity. That would be helpful in fighting fighting against Chamath Palihapitiya (00:12:20): A recession. Correct? I mean, I I I think that that we're probably gonna have a a quarter or 2 contraction. It's probably gonna happen. It's sort of at the late end of this year, beginning of next year. Just the real question is how how high are rates between now and then? And, again, I think The setup isn't very good, which is that the investors in the stock market are playing chicken with the Fed. And, you know, they're just at the beginning of a rate cycle, and they haven't been able to impact any real forms of liquidity in the equity market. And so I think they're gonna they're gonna they're going to attack that, and the only blunt force instrument they have is rates. And so, you know, you could see rates of 3, 3 a half percent, and that's gonna impact a lot of stuff. And the problem is that, you know, It's going to be after the economy has slowed down because it's going to be after a lot of these, you know, fake savings, if you will, have been depleted. Jason Calacanis (00:13:18): Well, we're seeing some pressure come off as well. The car shortage is kinda ending, and wages have raised. So the it seems like they're in in this you know, confluence of events, certain things are starting to work themselves out. Are you Chamath Palihapitiya (00:13:31): bullish? -- something else. I was I was in Washington this week. The number of people that listen to our pod, it is incredible. David Sacks (00:13:41): Ah. That's interesting. Yeah. How many -- Incredible. Jason Calacanis (00:13:43): -- David Sacks (00:13:43): people in Washington care about our views of politics. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:13:46): It's incredible. David Friedberg (00:13:47): The number of David Sacks (00:13:47): people -- -- feedback too. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:13:48): Yeah. Yeah. It's really, really, really special. We've we've stumbled into something pretty cool. And the fact that it's like must It's it's it's it's must listening. It's must listening at this Jason Calacanis (00:13:57): -- It's like a Sunday weekly show. You just get a different perspective from -- Yeah. -- the tech sector and capital allocators that maybe you don't get on you know, meet the press or something. David Sacks (00:14:06): Yeah. But just to follow-up on that inflation point, the economic point, Jason, if I can. So -- Please. So, look, the main reason inflation is gonna go down in the second half of this year is because inflation is measured on a year over year basis. And you remember about a year ago is when inflation started. But, you know, around this time last year, inflation is only two and a half percent, then it reached 5% by the summer. Then by the end of the year, it was almost 8%. So as we sort of lap last year's inflation rate, we come up against, you know, you're copying against Jason Calacanis (00:14:36): 87.8% David Sacks (00:14:37): number last year. So I don't think inflation's gonna get any better. We're probably looking at roughly a Jason Calacanis (00:14:43): 12%, David Sacks (00:14:44): you know, official 2 year inflation number. So in other words, Since Biden took over as president, you're looking at probably 12 to 13% of total inflation as measured by CPI. And that is why even though the headline number will come down later this year, I don't think the American people are gonna feel any better about the situation. You can almost predict that Jen Psaki, whoever replaces her at the podium, at the White House briefing room, they're gonna be touting these lower inflation numbers at the end of the year. But it doesn't mean price levels will have decreased. Prices will still be very high. When people go to the grocery store, they buy meat or bread or what have you, it's gonna be very expensive. And I don't think people are gonna be feeling better off, and there's gonna be a lot of negativity going into the November for this administration. And Jason Calacanis (00:15:30): also, I think it's gonna impact consumption. I mean, if you're going to a gas station and you I mean, I drove the minivan to LA, And it's the only electric it's only non electric car we have. We happen to drive it because we had a a number of people that was bigger than the x. And It was, like, shocking to buy $7 gasoline. And, obviously, I can withstand, you know, filling up, but I could see people saying, you know what? Maybe I'm not gonna make that incremental trip or, you know, you start looking at some of the prices. Yeah. You know, for taking a trip or flights. I don't know if you've looked at flights or hotels. Like, things are starting to creep up that it's, like, super noticeable. And that's got to affect consumption. And then that what would be what would be part of those negative two quarters. Right, Chamath? I mean, the role of people stopping consuming and just saying, you know what? It's too expensive right now. Just I'll stay at home and watch Netflix. Fuck it. You know, I'll cook pasta tonight. You you see that happening already. Yeah. People are starting to balance the balance sheet. Just looking at the balance sheet and saying, you know what? What's a way I can, you know, cut some expensive items off the you know, I'll ride a bike. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:16:35): They're gonna take less travel because, you know, the cost of airline tickets have gone up because the cost of the jet fuel has gone up. It all It all ripples through the economy. But I think the thing is that when when the Fed gets involved, though, they get involved in a, you know, in a brute force way. David Sacks (00:16:51): me make a prediction right now. If we're we're we're definitely headed into an ecomic slowdown. I don't know if it will meet the technical definition of recession, but very Jason Calacanis (00:16:58): high -- -- negative quarters of growth in David Sacks (00:17:00): the technical. So, you know, very high chance, I think, of recession like Shamas said towards the end of the year. If this war is still going on and we get in a recession, Look out below. I think this president will be in Jimmy Carter territory. He began the year at 38%. That was in reasonably good conditions of peacetime. If you know, and I tweeted at the beginning of the year in January, I said that, you know, this is you know, you're at 38% that's with peace and prosperity. We'll look out below if we get recession at war. That's what it's looking like right now. So You know, I think this is things are looking pretty pretty dire, which is why I keep saying it, you know, the policy of this administration should be to try and find a settlement to the situation in Ukraine to this war. I know that we didn't start it. Putin started it. Let's be clear. But if there's an off ramp here, we should be seizing it because we got real problems back home in America, and the administration should be focused on our economy and our problems. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:17:56): Europe is gonna be the canary in the coal mine on all of this because I think they feel this pretty severely, and I think there's a a lot of exhaustion amongst European Governments and Leaders when you start to listen to this rhetoric to kind of, you know, find a a way to and and what's going on over there because the they're gonna see a pretty meaningful recession, I think. David Sacks (00:18:19): Yeah. Absolutely. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:18:20): Much more much more so than we will. Yeah. David Sacks (00:18:22): And if you look if you look right now what's happening in France, Marine Le Pen is surging. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:18:26): Unbelievable. David Sacks (00:18:27): against Macron. I don't know if she's gonna pull off the upset, but one of the major pillar well, actually, here's what she's running on. She is saying that She has been focused on inflation and cost of living, and she says Macron has been distracted by being America's basically laptop puppet, whatever. on Ukraine. So she's saying we need to focus on the French economy, and she's also saying that we, as France, should set our own follower policy and not be so different to the US, she says that this protracted war in Ukraine and all this hot rhetoric coming out of the Biden administration about war crimes, and destabilizing Putin and toppling him and putting him on trial at the Hague. That is not in French interest. That's what the Americans wanna do, but it's not what we should be wanting to do. We need to end this war And I'm not ready to say she's gonna pull off the upset yet, but she is clearly articulating that message because she is finding purchase with the French electorate based on that message you're gonna hear that. If this war continues for 3 months 6 months and Europe goes into recession, you're gonna start hearing politicians all over the European continent saying the same thing and questioning American leadership, and why are they air dragging this thing out? Chamath Palihapitiya (00:19:34): The the thing that's the scariest thing about the French election And I'm not sure how many Americans paid attention to it, but just to maybe summarize in a very quick nutshell, you actually had this really interesting dynamic of 3 candidates. 1 was what would be considered far left, Jean Luc Melenchon. 1 far right marine lepen, and then one that was bear very centrist Emmanuel Macron. And what's crazy is both of these two were, you know, 22 plus percent of all of the votes. It was just that Le Pen and Macron were 1 and 2. And so they go into a runoff election and, you know, Melenchon was very clear. He was like, under no circumstance, should any of my supporters vote for Le Pen But it just shows you what's happening, which is like France, which is, you know, sort of coming undone under this populist fight is probably a canary in the coal mine for how this stuff could play out in other places, and it's kinda scary. Jason Calacanis (00:20:40): It'd be interesting to see what happens in Germany as well as they look at this enabling of Well, Chamath Palihapitiya (00:20:45): they were able to hold the line. They you know, they still have a center right government. But, you know, in Austria for a while, that wasn't the case. In Hungary, it's not really the case. So there is a lot of countries at least in the eastern block of of Europe where you've you've seen a tip in one direction or the other. It's not unreasonable to think of that in France, it could tip in one direction or the other. Fortunately in the UK or unfortunately, however you look at it, it's still really a 2 party system for the most part, I think. So I don't know. We're we're in a really precarious moment in world history, I think. Yeah. David Sacks (00:21:21): By the Chamath Palihapitiya (00:21:21): way, I wanna talk about one thing that I talk at the end of last year, I talked about just a very random thing about, you know, Visa and Mastercard and how you could short them or, you know, like, basically, like, the payment networks, we're gonna start to get, you know, dismantle this year? It's really interesting to see. I don't know if you guys have been really paying attention to all the activity that's been happening in payments over like the last literally 90 days, I think, has been really incredible. Up until, you know, just today, you know, Visa and Mastercard, I think, are doing the single dumbest thing they could do by being a duopoly, which is raising prices, especially into an inflationary moment, which just lacks complete Knowledge and sensitivity of the moment. So dampen economic activity. But also creates the incentives for disruption. Sure. Right? Because then the gap between you and your next Clearance competitor becomes more obvious. And, again, in capitalism, you compete away these advantages. And I just think that The setup is becoming more and more obvious for the shift in payments. I just think it's quite interesting. So Dick Durbin, actually, today basically is gonna create a big, you know, Hubhub in the senate around these increasing merchant fees, which will eventually spill over to consumers. There is some talk that, you know, I I what is it called Zelle? Is that how you pronounce it Zelle? The the the the the interbank payment system. People are talking about them converting that to becoming a more substantive payment system. And then this week, I was able to see a little bit under the hood of, you know, Solana pay And that's really exciting. So it's all coming, I think, like, it's like a swarm of activity to dismantle these payments businesses. I just wanted to just give it the 90 day update from our from our discussion in January. Jason Calacanis (00:23:08): Alright, everybody. We will see you May 15th 16th 17th in Miami for the 1st all in summit now sold out. No more tickets available. There's a wait list, but we're not gonna be able to get to anybody on it. Sorry. You can sign up, and we'll make sure you know about next year. If there is a next year, this might be a one and done kind of situation. 3 amazing parties, Sunday night is a appropriate tournament for charity. the top it's gonna be a sit and go format. If you win your sit and go, you go into a sit and go bake off, and then you get to sit at the final table with the 4 besties. winners are gonna get to make a donation to the charity of their choice, paid for by the besties. And Sunday night's party will be the Goodfella's party. Monday is gonna be the Havana party, bring your linen Sachs. I know you got a whole closet full down there. And then Tuesday nights are Miami Vice Party. Here are the mock ups Chamath Palihapitiya (00:23:55): of the invite. -- reveal? David Sacks (00:23:57): This the first time I'm seeing it. Same time I'm seeing all Jason Calacanis (00:23:59): these -- -- little reveal. There there's a lot of work. The copy I didn't write. We're workshopping it. It's just We we got a little what do they call that? Like, a mood board. It's a little bit of a mood board. Here is your wet your beaks party for Sunday night. It's gonna be a good fellas theme. should be a lot of fun. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:24:14): This is like it looks like Goodfellas. Jason Calacanis (00:24:16): It looks like Goodfellas. We're gonna keep working on it. Wet Your Beaks probably not gonna be the name of your party, but that Sunday night, And then next up is our Havana White party. David Sacks (00:24:25): Wow. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:24:26): Despite all the shit you take, you do such a good job with this shit. Jason Calacanis (00:24:29): I gotta say. And then we're gonna have Chamath Palihapitiya (00:24:31): our -- This Jason Calacanis (00:24:32): is -- -- social club. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:24:34): I apologize, but I think this is complete dog shit, this one. Jason Calacanis (00:24:36): The first one is supposed to be Buenavista's social club. You're just a heath, and you never saw Chamath Palihapitiya (00:24:40): The first one is so good. This is horrendous. Well, I don't even know what is this picture of this. Jason Calacanis (00:24:45): It's it's a it's a theme on the Buenavista social club. It's a it's not the right image, but we're workshopping it, like I said. But -- Yeah. -- that's gonna be a Harvada white party. Everybody's gonna wear linens on Monday night, and it's -- That's gonna be at a beautiful space. -- David Sacks (00:24:56): false name in that? Jason Calacanis (00:24:57): like I said, this is just a designer coming up with ideas. And then, of course, we're gonna have our Miami vice. We're gonna rent a couple of -- Chamath Palihapitiya (00:25:04): Oh, that I like. -- Miami Ventures. Jason Calacanis (00:25:06): And so now we are And so that should be our at 420 Bitcoin Street, your best eighties dress for Miami Ventures. So it's gonna be three top parties. David Sacks (00:25:15): That is that's hot. Jason Calacanis (00:25:16): I think it's gonna be 3 great parties. You have to but everybody's gonna have to get 3 great outfits. So Linens are easy Monday night. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:25:23): Jay Jay Cal, your your thighs look really big in this foot. Right? Jason Calacanis (00:25:26): Well, this is fat, Jay Cal. This is not 167, Jay Cal. This is 198, Jay Cal. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:25:31): On your left leg, you can't tell where your bottom part of the leg stops where Jason Calacanis (00:25:37): you need it. -- a stool in that picture they got. But yeah. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:25:40): But it's like you have no knee. It's just, like, one big shank, like, Jason Calacanis (00:25:43): poor children. You know what? It's when you're fat and you got fat suits, you know, everything's Listen. I've been looking at pictures of myself. Why didn't you guys fatching me more? That's the question I have. You guys should have been just Chamath Palihapitiya (00:25:54): on the top of what so You really look incredible. And then yesterday when I saw you, I was like, holy shit. This guy looks really fantastic. Look, there's no knee there. It's just Jason Calacanis (00:26:02): There's no knee. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:26:02): It's like shank. Jason Calacanis (00:26:03): It's like big shank. know what? When you're a fat guy, you get fat suits. You just try to you know? And now I'm having to re buy look at that fat face. David Sacks (00:26:10): So what's with that hair? Jason Calacanis (00:26:11): Zoom out. Oh my god. Zoom out. Zoom out. Looked terrible. Flat hair. Now Saxx looking nice. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:26:17): No. You look good. David Sacks (00:26:18): I look fabulous. Let's let's go with this one. Let's go with this. Jason Calacanis (00:26:21): You look good. We're gonna redo mine. I want all the photos done of Vin Jay Cow for Vincepiration. Don't no double chin. What are you doing? You work for me. Okay. Yeah. We need we need to -- -- me, Rick's Where's my neck? No. I got a neck again. I found my neck, everybody. There you have it, folks. So I'm sorry if you did not get into the all in summit, but we've got a great lineup of speakers and events planned. No press because well, we have the same distribution, but we will The press will be able to see all the talks. So all the talks will come out post event on the all in feed. So for the 10 days after the all in feed, you're gonna get a show every day. David Sacks (00:26:57): And who are our confirmed speakers at this point? Jason Calacanis (00:26:59): Oh my lord. So many good ones hold on. Let me pull it up here. Keith Roy. Palmer Lucky is coming. David Sacks (00:27:06): Oh, good. So let's confirm. That's awesome. Jason Calacanis (00:27:08): Yeah. We got that confirmed. He's a big fan of Saxi Pooh. The new website's up, by the way, and it looks beautiful. David Sacks (00:27:14): Wow. Look at this. Jason Calacanis (00:27:15): We have Ryan Peterson, Nate Silver, Brett Gersner, Claire Vickel, who is amazing. Mahershawn, Palmer Lucky, Keith Reboy, Joe Lonzo. -- David Sacks (00:27:26): Antonio. So wanna speak. Jason Calacanis (00:27:28): Tip or Antonio is now coming out of a shell. Antonio Urvi and Martinez. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:27:32): I mean, Jason Calacanis (00:27:32): this is Adena. David Sacks (00:27:34): You should get we should get some foreign policy folks too. Jason Calacanis (00:27:37): I mean, well, if you guys wanted to do any fucking work, you could help me out here. David Sacks (00:27:43): I thought this was just a grift you were doing. I didn't know it was serious. Now now I may have to help Jason Calacanis (00:27:47): Yeah. No. You're gonna be proud of this. Well, here's the thing that I'm gonna be most proud of is the format. I have come up with a new concept of a format. I came up with a theme quite that people can choose to answer or not, but the problem I want to solve. And it could be the problem I most wanna solve. It could be the problem I wanna see solve. The problem I'm thinking about People will go up in most cases and give a 10 to 20 minute call it a Ted style talk, a solo solo talk where they kind of talk about what they're working on in their lives, then they come and sit in a chair with 2 besties on either side. And then the four of us engage them in a conversation while we're talking, we're gonna have maybe 5 slides that producers will put together of data points, etcetera, so we all get educated, we pull up the slide. And then there'll be, you know, 600 people in the auditorium, 100 people in the simulcast room. We will take one question from the audience or two questions if we have time with each segment. And so you're gonna get a lot of bestie action but stimulated by bestie guestie positions. And I think this is really what folks want. Now if somebody doesn't want to give one. Let's say Palmer just wants to talk. Well, we'll just talk with Palmer. And so there there's gonna be an option. I told people you could your position Paper, your position statement could be 5 minutes, it could be 20. So Chamath Palihapitiya (00:29:01): I wanna do something on natural resource scarcity and national security. So Jim Littinski, the CEO of MP Materials. Jason Calacanis (00:29:10): Okay. You just all you gotta do is email me the person's email address or introduce me we'll set it up. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:29:14): So we'll we'll we'll do something on, like, the supply chain of, like, rare earth and Lithium nickel cool. Jason Calacanis (00:29:18): And so and then here's my other idea. So I I told everybody Chamath Palihapitiya (00:29:21): that the problem I'd like to solve there is energy independence for America. Jason Calacanis (00:29:24): Perfect. So then what we're Chamath Palihapitiya (00:29:26): gonna do -- -- still need to email you now? Jason Calacanis (00:29:28): just a moment. But here's the thing we're doing. I Chamath Palihapitiya (00:29:30): told everybody Jason Calacanis (00:29:30): -- Chamath Palihapitiya (00:29:30): I just told you that Jason Calacanis (00:29:31): -- Yeah. We have it. Nick will take a note -- Yeah. -- to remind you. get the email addressed. Here's what's gonna happen. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:29:37): So you don't need me to email you? Jason Calacanis (00:29:39): I mean, we don't wanna guess the email if you have it and you know them. I mean, I know you wanna do the least amount of work, But I need to get a producers fee here. I don't know. You guys gotta outvote Friedberg putting that aside. David Sacks (00:29:49): Absolutely. Jason Calacanis (00:29:49): But in Chamath Palihapitiya (00:29:50): my beak. I'm fine with that too. Jason Calacanis (00:29:51): Thank you. Then 3 because that's how all in media is working now. It's just gonna be votes. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:29:55): But why don't you sign the LLC agreement? Jason Calacanis (00:29:57): Did anybody sign it yet? I was gonna review it Chamath Palihapitiya (00:29:59): to see Jason Calacanis (00:29:59): what fucking poison pill Friedberg put in there. Consignment. I'm not siding this shit till I have 2 lawyers looking over. Freeburg's got a poison pill in there. I don't Chamath Palihapitiya (00:30:06): know about you guys, but I just signed any random DocuSign that I'm looking at. I just assumed Jason Calacanis (00:30:10): -- David Sacks (00:30:10): You know, I wanna Jason Calacanis (00:30:11): -- David Sacks (00:30:11): It's getting -- -- speak. You know, I wanna get to speak at the Jason Calacanis (00:30:13): conference in the last 30 days. Yeah. David Sacks (00:30:16): So I'd like to get I'd like to get are John Mersheimer to speak. He's a Jason Calacanis (00:30:19): -- Chamath Palihapitiya (00:30:19): That'd be great. David Sacks (00:30:20): Yeah. He's a professor at University of Chicago. He's been there 40 years. He's the leading He's a leading theorist, you could say, of the school of thought called realism Jason Calacanis (00:30:30): -- Oh, yes, sir. -- David Sacks (00:30:31): in in foreign policy. And he has a track record of being right about all of America's foreign policy Oh, wait. Jason Calacanis (00:30:39): Just the guy you shared the video with. Right? David Sacks (00:30:40): Yeah. So Jason Calacanis (00:30:41): He's the guy who talked about David Sacks (00:30:42): the duopoly. Jason Calacanis (00:30:43): What did they call that? The mono dual tri world motor? Nucleosus. multipolar, your unipolar when the -- Yeah. David Sacks (00:30:52): I mean, he has a critique he has a critique of liberal interventionism, which has been a dark dominant -- Fantastic. Jason Calacanis (00:30:57): -- David Sacks (00:30:57): foreign policy since the end of the Cold War. It's what got us into Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria. He predicted all those things to be fiasco's. He also predicted that our policy of constructive engaged towards China. It would ultimately backfire and be a disaster. And he has a very contrarian critique right now of our policy in Ukraine that's gone viral. Jason Calacanis (00:31:17): Yes. David Sacks (00:31:18): on Twitter and it's gotten, like, 10,000,000 plus views. He would be an incredible person to to come speak. Jason Calacanis (00:31:25): Well, here's what's happened while we invite people, you know, we invite some people. They don't know the show. We knew other people, and they're like, oh my god. I love the show. I I I'm there. What what's gonna be interesting is the next 30 days, we're gonna to each person about what they what topic they really wanna, you know, double click on, and then we're gonna pair people. So you might have Keith Roy, and Antonio, you know, you might have Tim Urban and Joe Lonsdale or whatever. And so, hopefully, we can find a little dynamic. Maybe people don't agree. Maybe they have, you know, opposite positions, and then we are going to then have this great socratic dialogue with everybody. And I think it's gonna be a very fast paced type thing. And then, hopefully, the speakers sit in the VIP area, and then I'm gonna have a runner there with a microphone or I might do it myself. So, you know, I might have Keith Roboy on in the morning in the afternoon he might wanna chime in on Joe Lonsdale's talk. I run up to him with a microphone, etcetera. So we got probably we're gonna do 2 hours in the morning, 3 hours in the afternoon. So 10 to 12 so you can sleep in or come for coffee if we stay late playing poker every night. It's gonna be a gentle wake up. 12 to 2 is a nice lunch, healthy, 3 to 5 nice con I'm sorry. 2 to 5, 3 hours of nice content, then you get a little break. You go to the parties at the end parties, you never know, a poker table or 2 might be pulled out and we play a little cash game. Who knows? Anything's possible. So poker could be all 3 nights. I don't know. You know? This depends on the degeneracy level. But I think it's gonna be a fun time. I'm just asking nobody go ham on Sunday or Monday night, please. Tuesday night, you wanna have a little extracurricular, you wanna go a little late, Davy, Chamath, that's fine. But -- I want everybody in bed by midnight Sunday night and Monday night. Jason Calacanis (00:33:07): No crazy. Alright. David Sacks (00:33:08): So what are the dates to seeing again? Jason Calacanis (00:33:12): Okay. It's Sunday, Monday, Tuesday. Sunday, Monday, Tuesday. David Sacks (00:33:16): Of what of what? Jason Calacanis (00:33:17): May 15, 16, 17. Okay. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:33:20): Oh my god. Oh my god. Jason Calacanis (00:33:22): What a shit show. And you better fucking flossing some of these speakers out to 2. David Sacks (00:33:25): Is it a month? Chamath Palihapitiya (00:33:26): It is a month. Yes. Jason Calacanis (00:33:27): That's why I'm busting my ass on this. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:33:29): Okay. Jake Alumman introduced you to Littinski so we can slot it. Jason Calacanis (00:33:33): And if anybody we could use a couple more female speakers, people of color. I'm really trying to keep it diverse and have a lot of range of speakers. A lot of David Stans said yes early. You got the Jolan sales. You get Keethree Boys. They all, like, wanna support David's team, I could use a couple of people maybe with the posting viewpoint. So we're we're trying to keep it a little bit wide. Bari Weiss may come. We're trying to work on Bar. David Sacks (00:33:53): So that's good. Yeah. ago. Jason Calacanis (00:33:54): Oh, Sharon Swisher can't make it. I wanted to have Bari and Cara Swisher. It doesn't seem like that oil and vinegar's gonna happen. Can we can we get Glenn Greenwood? But that one's right, right, right. You're getting you're getting further further to their -- No. No. What? -- to have is somebody a matter with -- -- Chamath Palihapitiya (00:34:08): Matt Taibbi. Jason Calacanis (00:34:09): That's another kinda right guy. I would David Sacks (00:34:11): the year definitions are all off, Jason. These definitions don't mean anything anymore. Jason Calacanis (00:34:15): Okay. They're independent critical thinkers. So David Sacks (00:34:17): we're fine. They they they originally came from the left. they're not, like, huge fans of unbridled capitalism, but there are more on the populous side. Is this is this is this populous person we can shake up? Jason Calacanis (00:34:27): -- to anybody, Saks, I would appreciate it. particularly Peter Teal who's the you're the one person who can deliver it since you guys are besties, bring us Peter Teal. The guy spoke out of content. David Sacks (00:34:38): Alright. Give me a give me a list. I'll invite Glenn. I'll invite Taibial. I'll invite Peter. Jason Calacanis (00:34:43): Oh, great. Now we just want to have the audience. David Sacks (00:34:44): Try and invite me or Sean. Jason Calacanis (00:34:45): We could have a protest outside. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:34:47): I I I David Sacks (00:34:47): actually -- These are the most interesting people. Jason Calacanis (00:34:49): Exactly. PTO is the most interesting for sure. I like Mike Taibi, actually. I'll give you that. David Sacks (00:34:54): Here's the problem. Here's the problem. here's the problem with getting the people on the other side is that the people on the other side, again, it's not right versus left anymore. It's sort of Populous versus elitist, and you already know what all the elitists are gonna say. And they're too afraid to be on stage with people on the other side. Jason Calacanis (00:35:10): But, I mean, I think that your associated with Peter Thiel is a little bit charged in triggering for certain people. That's why. David Sacks (00:35:16): Yeah. Exactly. That that's why they don't they don't believe Jason Calacanis (00:35:18): in space. They don't I mean, they people are like, how could you be friends with David? I'm like, because we love each other. We're friends. Like, we're we're besties. And they're like, well, but you disagree. I'm like -- David Sacks (00:35:27): It's it's contamination by association. Jason Calacanis (00:35:29): Well, that's a good point to do. That's I mean, David, that's what they're trying to do to me right now. I'm getting the back channel. How could you do this with David Sachs? And I'm like, because he's my best friend. David Sacks (00:35:37): That's why our pod is popular is we have four people who are friends who sometimes disagree with each other. The reason you can't create the show -- It's still great friends. Right. Yes. Jason Calacanis (00:35:46): I'm not giving up my friendship with Dave. The reason David Sacks (00:35:48): you can't create the show anywhere else is because those people think they get contaminated if they even have a conversation. somebody on the other side of things. Jason Calacanis (00:35:57): But you don't get that on your side. Correct. Because we really appreciate it. not coming to you and saying, David Sacks (00:36:02): because we're intellectually confident. We're intellectually confident. We don't believe in shutting down the debate. Jason Calacanis (00:36:07): Right. David Sacks (00:36:08): We believe in free speech. The other side, they're authoritarian Jason Calacanis (00:36:12): -- David Sacks (00:36:12): Yes. Jason Calacanis (00:36:12): -- David Sacks (00:36:12): because they can't defend anything. They just cancel people. They don't they've lost the art of persuasion. Jason Calacanis (00:36:18): I think they've given up their position would be they've given up trying to reach you. You just don't get it. They've given up trying to reach you. And I'm like, don't give up. Put up a fight. If you disagree with Saks's David Sacks (00:36:29): position, reach me, Jason Calacanis (00:36:30): have a chance. David Sacks (00:36:31): It's not about reaching me. It's about reaching all of them Jason Calacanis (00:36:33): -- David Sacks (00:36:33): Yes. -- all the people out Jason Calacanis (00:36:34): there often. -- debate. David Sacks (00:36:36): They don't wanna to to engage the debate because they can't win the debate because they don't know how to persuade -- I Jason Calacanis (00:36:39): beat you David Sacks (00:36:40): in a meeting this Jason Calacanis (00:36:40): debate. All they David Sacks (00:36:41): know how to Chamath Palihapitiya (00:36:41): do is cancel. Jason Calacanis (00:36:41): -- you in Chamath Palihapitiya (00:36:42): this debate Jason Calacanis (00:36:42): weekly. Look what I David Sacks (00:36:43): did to you in January 6. -- cancel people. Jason Calacanis (00:36:46): Yes. David Sacks (00:36:46): They're so used to canceling you. Jason Calacanis (00:36:48): -- every week, Saxon. I own you half the time. David Sacks (00:36:50): Okay. If he's good. Thanks so. Jason Calacanis (00:36:53): January 6th, we're gonna release the January 6th tapes. David Sacks (00:36:56): That's all you got. Jason Calacanis (00:36:57): -- scourges on January 6th. David Sacks (00:36:59): You're like MSNBC. That's all you got. to let your winners ride. Jason Calacanis (00:37:05): Rainman, David Sachs. David Sacks (00:37:09): And I said -- We open source it to the fans, and they've just gone crazy with it. what airliners ride. Best east are called. Go to 13th. That is my dog to give it. I was Chamath Palihapitiya (00:37:32): We should all just get a room and just have one think you, George, because they're all just useless. It's like this, like, sexual tension, but they just need to release them out. Jason Calacanis (00:37:41): What? You're the thief. What? Wear up David Sacks (00:37:43): your feet. Jason Calacanis (00:37:45): What? Where did you get Murphy's our David Sacks (00:37:49): back?