埃隆·马斯克谈推特机器人问题、SpaceX 宏大计划、特斯拉往事与得州超级工厂

Speaker 1 (00:00:00): So live from an undisclosed location with the sultry filter on. very sultry filter on. Yeah. Having a great hair day. Jason Calacanis (00:00:14): Yeah. That is a good hair day for you. Speaker 1 (00:00:16): Great hair day. My Powell Jason Calacanis (00:00:19): and your favorite CEO and Twitter, Mr. Elon Musk. How are you doing, pal? Yes. The weather winter ride. Rainman, David Sachs. And I Speaker 3 (00:00:36): said We open source it to the fans and make discoveries. Jason Calacanis (00:00:39): Love you. appreciate you coming to the event and or coming zooming in. Yeah. What's new in your world? Elon Musk (00:00:54): Well, let's see. I guess right now, I'm sort of debating the number of bots on Twitter. with with Parrah on Twitter. And the Currently, I'd like to what what what I'm being told is that the there's just no way to know the number of bots. It's like as a noble as the human soul, basically. Jason Calacanis (00:01:22): So -- Because we have no idea we we have no witchcraft Elon Musk (00:01:25): and Alchemy is needed. determine these for this but percentage. Jason Calacanis (00:01:29): How do you determine? Elon Musk (00:01:30): I said, like, why why don't I try calling people, but I haven't got a response. You know? Like, if if you try calling people or something, you know? Like, maybe try that. Jason Calacanis (00:01:38): The answer? Speaker 5 (00:01:38): It's not a bot. No. Elon Musk (00:01:39): No. It no. I don't know. But I I think, like, that would be one of the things to do to say, like, Have you tried calling them? As opposed to trying to read the tea leaves here, that's, like, impossible. You know? Obviously, you can have an account that looks exactly like a a human account or is being operated at where one person's operating a 1000 accounts or something. But that person can only buy one toaster. They're not gonna buy a 1000 toasters. So you care about, like, number of unique real people that are on the system. It's extremely fundamental. And anyone who uses Twitter is well aware of that the the comment the comment threads are are full of spam, scam, and and just a lot of you know, fake accounts. So it it seems beyond beyond reasonable for Twitter to claim that the number of essentially, the number of real said another way, the number of real unique humans that you see making comments on a daily basis on Twitter is above 95%. That is what they're claiming. Does anyone have that experience? I Jason Calacanis (00:02:47): mean Speaker 1 (00:02:50): -- Jason Calacanis (00:02:52): Really? Elon Musk (00:02:56): It's like there's a bridge I I'd like to sell you. You know? You know? And and, also, You can buy the Brooklyn Bridge. Jason Calacanis (00:03:08): What do you think it is? What do you yeah. What's the I mean Speaker 5 (00:03:11): It's not 5%. What what is it? Elon Musk (00:03:14): I think it's some number that is probably at least 4 or 5 times that number. But I'd say at if you did sort of the the the lowest estimate would be probably Speaker 1 (00:03:26): 20%. Elon Musk (00:03:29): And and and this and this is a a bunch of quite smart outside firms have done analysis of Twitter and looked at the the the sort of daily daily users and their conclusion is also about is about 20%, but that's a lower bound. It's not an upper bound. If you look at, say, most liked tweets on Twitter. So I I have the the honor of having the most liked tweet of any living human. This is Thank you, everyone, for liking my tweet, including you pull some of the bots out there. But That tweet is less than 5,000,000 likes. It's like 4.7 or something like that. And that that that was the where I tweeted about that that next time buying Coca Cola to put the cocaine back in. definitely there's clearly something that the public really wants. And, you know, Coca Cola Corporation should really think about going back to their roots, you know, from o e Coca Cola. I mean, this this, I guess, is the reason why our grandparents could sort of walk twenty miles in the snow because they had Coca Cola with propane. There's a real reason. So Anyway, that's that's that's literally the most popular tweet of any of any living human. And but Twitter says that the daily the sort of monetizable daily active users is Speaker 1 (00:05:13): 217,000,000. Elon Musk (00:05:16): So why would it be that the most popular tweet ever basically is only you know, 22 and a half percent of the entire user base. This this seems a a very, very low number. And and and the most popular tweets generally are clustered around that sort of Speaker 1 (00:05:37): 4,000,000 Elon Musk (00:05:39): like level. So it's a sort of call like, like, basically 2% or or less than 2% of of the daily active users. and technically monetizable daily active users is how it could reverse it. So it just seems, how is this possible? Surely, there's something that maybe you know, 10% of people would like, not merely 2%. Well, actually, Jason Calacanis (00:06:01): you know, if you think about it, Elon, there's a corollary. On YouTube, what do what's the total user base of YouTube and what have the most popular videos gotten there. Elon Musk (00:06:10): Yes. Jason Calacanis (00:06:10): And I think there's a 1,000,000,000 or 2 maybe a billion people using YouTube and those the most popular videos have tens of billions of views Speaker 1 (00:06:18): -- Elon Musk (00:06:19): Yes. Speaker 1 (00:06:19): -- Jason Calacanis (00:06:19): that might be instructive. Elon Musk (00:06:21): Exactly. That ratio makes a lot more sense. So the something doesn't add up here. And and my concern is is not is not that is it, like, you know, is it 5 or or Speaker 1 (00:06:33): 7 Elon Musk (00:06:34): or 8%, but is it potentially Speaker 1 (00:06:37): 80% Elon Musk (00:06:38): or 90% but Yeah. You know, is it I mean, I I certainly know there's some real people on on Twitter, but but what's if it is it an order of magnitude is it is it 50% instead of 5, and that's obviously an incredibly material number, especially since Twitter relies primarily on brand advertising as opposed to specific click through advertising where you make a purchase. If you if you make a purchase, it doesn't really matter that much. But for brand advertising, which is really just awareness advertising, it matters if if real humans are seeing that or not. Jason Calacanis (00:07:12): Yeah. And and so I guess stepping back for a second, people are curious why you want to buy Twitter. Why is this so important to you. And then, I guess, what are the chances you think the deal gets done at this point? So a 2 parter. Why is it so important to me? Elon Musk (00:07:31): I mean, some of this I have articulated before, but I think there's a need for a a a public town square, digital town square that where people can debate issues of all kinds, including the most substance of issues. And in order for the for that to be the case, you have to ask something that is as broadly inclusive as possible that has as much of the the the people on the the platform as possible where it's it it feels balanced from a political standpoint. It's not biased one way or the other. and where the system is transparent. This is why I think it's important to put the algorithm on on GitHub and actually allow the public to see it and critique it and improve it. And if there are any manual changes, sort of shadow banning as it's called, or increasing or decreasing the prominence of a tweet that's done manually that that should be noted so you know what has happened. And it's not just, you know, you're you're just where where it is right now, we don't know what the heck is going on. Why is one tweak? doing well. Why is it not? Is it is it the algorithm? Did someone manually intervene? Why are some accounts banned? with no recourse apparently. And, you know, the the the reality is that that Twitter at this point, you know, has a very far left bias. And I I would classify myself as as a moderate and, you know, neither Republican nor nor Democrat. And, in fact, I have voted voted overwhelmingly for Democrats historically, overwhelmingly. Like, I'm I'm not sure I I might never have voted for a Republican just to be Jason Calacanis (00:09:11): clear. Right. Elon Musk (00:09:12): Now now this election, I will. Jason Calacanis (00:09:19): Wow. Is it David? Are you okay? And he's he's crazy. Keep going. Keep going. He's fine. He's fine. We're gonna resuscitate him. We're gonna resuscitate David's act. I mean, Let me ask you a question. Elon Musk (00:09:29): The quick point I'm trying to make is that this is not some sort of attempt to you know, it's not some right wing takeover as as pay so people don't let me fear. but rather a moderate wing takeover and an attempt to ensure that that people of of old you know, a political beliefs feel welcome on on a digital town square that and they can express their their beliefs without fear of being banned or shadow banned and and and that we we obviously need to get rid of the bots and and and scams and trolls and and people that are operating huge bot armies in an attempt to unduly influence the the public opinion. So this is what I think it's very important that we have that. Like, the the some of the smartest people in history have have have have thought about it and said, like, free speech is important for a for a healthy democracy. It is important. And free speech only matters Like, say, when speech matter most. It's when someone when it's someone you don't like saying something you don't like Speaker 1 (00:10:38): -- Jason Calacanis (00:10:38): Yeah. Speaker 1 (00:10:39): -- Elon Musk (00:10:39): that's when it actually matters. So you know, obviously and and and and it's it's pretty annoying when someone you don't like, so something you don't like. That's that's that's bad, but it's actually a good sign of of that that that you have free speech. So I mean, I get trashed by media all the time. It's fine. I don't care. Do do it twice as much. I couldn't care less. But it's indicative of the fact that even though I, you know, I have like a lot of resources. I do not actually have the ability to stop the media from trashing me. And that's actually a good thing. Jason Calacanis (00:11:16): Yeah. I I have to ask with regard to this current administration, I know how hard you work on the car company. And then Biden, you know, you've been a lifelong Democrat. You've donated to Obama to everybody. Probably never voted Republican. And yet, And the same is true for Joe Rogan. Joe Rogan is, you know, a Bernie Sanders supporter, and that the Democratic Party has been openly hostile to Joe Rogan And Biden can't even say the word Tesla or invite you to the White House when they do an EV Summit. I'm curious just On a very personal basis, what does it feel like to to have that experience where the party you supported is won't even say the name of your company or invite you there They should be celebrating the work you're doing. Elon Musk (00:12:03): Yeah. I mean, it it definitely feels like this is not right. Like, this is the the the issue here is that there's just an there's 2 the the Derek Card Party is overly overly controlled by the unions and by the trial lawyers particularly the class action, Dolores. And, generally, if you'll if you'll see something that doesn't that is not in the interest of the of the people, On the on the Democrat side, it's gonna come because of the unions, which is just another form of monopoly, and the the trialers. The that that's where actions will be happening on the Democrat side. They're not in the interest of the people. And then to be fair, on the Republican side, does does if you say, like, where where is something, like, not not ideal happening, it's because of corporate evil and religious poetry. But that's generally where the bad things will be coming from on the Republican side. that are not representative of the people. So in in the case of Biden, he is simply too too much captured by the unions. where which was not the case with Obama. So in the case of Obama, you could have, you know, who's sort of quite reasonable And I think he took more of a view of that, you know, obviously, need to take the con to concerns the unions into account, but there there are big there are bigger issues at stake. and, unfortunately, Biden does not do that. Jason Calacanis (00:13:25): Elon, I have a I have a Tesla question. I read today, it's incredible. There was a Bloomberg article that said the following. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:13:30): So the setup is this. It said since Jason Calacanis (00:13:32): you went public, Tesla's up 22,000 percent, Speaker 1 (00:13:36): 11 Jason Calacanis (00:13:37): quarters of prop sequential profitability. So hitting on all cylinders. But the -- Uh-huh. Public analyst Speaker 1 (00:13:44): -- Elon Musk (00:13:45): We had to look at it. Jason Calacanis (00:13:47): It's a car joke. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:13:48): That's a combustion. Elon Musk (00:13:50): Fireing it. We're gonna be stepping on the gas pedal, firing it on its own list. People are charged. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:13:58): But analysts, when they put Jason Calacanis (00:14:00): out their projections -- Okay. -- it's it's one of the most enormous bands for any company in America. The the price targets for Tesla, despite all of this success, some have it at 200, some have Chamath Palihapitiya (00:14:11): it at 1600. It's all over the place. You tweeted a couple months ago, Tesla is not a company. Jason Calacanis (00:14:17): It's like 6 companies inside of a company. Like, you've had to Elon Musk (00:14:20): build -- -- course. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:14:22): Yeah. Maybe more. Can you just explain to people Jason Calacanis (00:14:24): all these companies inside this super company just so folks have a sense of what had to be Chamath Palihapitiya (00:14:28): done to get here? Elon Musk (00:14:29): Okay. I mean, this this question requires thought, and I'll probably be leaving out quite a few things. But if you look at say what what does a typical car company do. What what they do is they they they they assemble vehicles And they send them to dealers, and they manage the supply chain. The the they they might make the engine typically, we'll make the engine, but most of the parts are made by suppliers. And a lot of the actual technology development is done by suppliers, and most of the vehicle software is done by suppliers. So the actual amount of real work done by car companies that what you think of sort of like a GM afford is not actually that much. And but this like so they don't do they don't do sales. They don't do service. They so so in the case of Tesla, for example, we we do we we do our own sales and service. We don't have dealerships. Then Tesla also has by far the biggest network of superchargers, sort of the electric equivalent of gas stations. So we bought the entire global supercharger network which is still the most advanced and by far the best way to charge your car when traveling long distance or if you live in a city and and don't have the ability to charge your car with a street parking or an apartment. So the whole supercharge network, we we developed the supercharge network. We deployed it. I think we have I don't know, 15,000 superchargers globally. You travel anywhere in America right now with the Tesla supercharged network. Then in terms of vertical integration, we we make the the the battery pack the the power electronics to drive unit, we we actually make we're we're we're more integrated in in the parts. We actually make so much of the car internally. We're vertically integrated, not necessarily because we we just we think that there's some religious reason to be vertically integrated, but because the pace that we needed to move was just much faster than the supply chain could move. Elon Musk (00:16:36): And to the degree that you inherit legacy supply chain, you inherit legacy constraints, including their speed, cost, and and technology. And then Tesla is as much a software company as it is a hardware company. So the software that runs in Tesla operates the car, operates the the screen, does the charging, all of that stuff is developed by Tesla. And so we have sort of a car that tells the OS in the car. Jason Calacanis (00:17:02): When you -- I could I Elon Musk (00:17:04): could go on for a long time. And then very importantly, Tesla has built an an autopilot AI team from scratch. that is the best real world AI team on earth. And if anyone else has got a better one, I'd like to see it demonstrated in a car. The the the full self driving beta at this point can very often take you with 0 interventions across the Bay Area from San Jose to Marin. So through complex traffic, it's really quite sophisticated. An adviser I want to to join the beta or or look at the videos of those who are in the beta. We've built, like, hundred thousand people in the beta, so it's not tiny. And we'll be expanding that to probably a a million people or a million, I don't know, on that order by the end of the year. So it's Jason Calacanis (00:17:56): You have this slide. Elon Musk (00:17:57): We also we also built a chip team to because there wasn't there wasn't hardware to that we could run the frigging AI on, we couldn't just fool the trunk with a whole bunch of GPUs and and you know? because they would would have created a trunk full of GPUs that would have been very expensive and take massive out of power and cooling just to to be able to do what the Tesla designed full self driving computer can do. So and we started a chip team from scratch, designed it. It was the best in the world, and still is the best in the world several years later. And we're also then developed we're designing a a dojo supercomputer to be able to process the all the video that's coming in from billions and miles of data because just sort of like the way that that it's critical to compete with Google because they have so much data and they have all this people doing searches all the time and and humanity is training it. But it's the same is true of of Tesla. You really need 1,000,000,000 of miles, so ultimately, tens of 1,000,000,000 of miles of training data. combined with a a a sort of a best training computer and then optimize inference hardware in the car, and, say, the art AI and training, especially as software across the board to be able to achieve a full self driving solution. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:19:12): I I just thought that when Jason Calacanis (00:19:13): when he opened Tesla Giga Factory, remember this 6 -- Yeah. Yeah. -- 7 years ago? I was just told the audience's story quickly, he puts a slide up there, and he says, guys, we're not actually building Chamath Palihapitiya (00:19:23): a factory. We're building a machine that makes machines, and he puts the layout of the factory Jason Calacanis (00:19:28): and it looks like a chip. And it was basically like how you would actually lay out Chamath Palihapitiya (00:19:32): a microchip if you were or, you know, you were, like, Jason Calacanis (00:19:34): a layout engineer. It was the craziest thing I'd ever seen. I was like, Chamath Palihapitiya (00:19:37): that was Jason Calacanis (00:19:37): when I first got it. Speaker 7 (00:19:38): Yeah. You know, you walk on tint and you see what's happening. Jason Calacanis (00:19:40): And you have an insurance company, now you're doing insurance for Tesla owners Speaker 1 (00:19:43): -- Jason Calacanis (00:19:43): And an Uber competitor. Right. And eventually, a Robo taxi Uber competitor, RIPaid. Elon Musk (00:19:49): Yeah. I mean, insurance is, like, quite significant. Jason Calacanis (00:19:52): Now are you okay? I'm okay. Okay. Okay. Elon Musk (00:19:56): Because the the the the car insurance thing is a bigger deal I may seem. A lot of people are paying, you know, 30, 40% as much as their lease payment for the car in in car insurance. So the car insurance industry is incredibly efficient because they they're they're just first of all, you got, like, so many sort of middle entities you got you got from the insurance agent all the way to the the final sort of reinsurer. There's like a half a dozen companies each taking a cut. And then the it's all very statistical so that there's even if you're a very good driver, like, you could be, like, you know, twenty years old and a great driver, but they it's all statistical, so you can't get either can't get insurance or it's it's extremely expensive. So what what Tesla allows for real time insurance based on you how you actually drive the car, you can actually if you drive the car, in a safer way, you actually have lower insurance. So ours is is is insurance is based on how you actually drive, not how you know, historically, people that, you know, fit your or whatever demographic have arrived. It's and and then you can close the loop around your insurance rate by simply driving better and looking at your score and and and lowering your assurance in real time, and people do it actually promotes safer driving. Jason Calacanis (00:21:13): I actually have had this experience because in my household, two people drive my car, and one of them has a 93 score, and the other one does not. They have, like, a 60 score. And you may have met this other person, but I've been trying to work with her on the aggressive turns and stops in advance of our insurance bill, which we're hoping will go down -- Yeah. Speaker 1 (00:21:38): -- Jason Calacanis (00:21:38): at some point. You didn't oh, the one question. Are is this Twitter deal gonna get closed, do you think? There are chances here. Elon Musk (00:21:45): Well, I mean, it really depends on on a a lot of factors here. I'm still waiting for some sort of logical explanation for the number of sort of fake or spam accounts on Twitter, and Twitter is is refusing to tell us. So, you know, this just seems like a strange thing. Jason Calacanis (00:22:08): Wait. Sorry. Is are Chamath Palihapitiya (00:22:09): they refusing to tell you or Jason Calacanis (00:22:10): you don't think they really know? I mean, there's a good chance they Chamath Palihapitiya (00:22:13): may just have no idea. Elon Musk (00:22:16): They claim that they do know. Jason Calacanis (00:22:18): Yeah. Elon Musk (00:22:19): And they claim that they've got this complex methodology that only they can understand Jason Calacanis (00:22:28): But the guy who landed 2 rockets Elon Musk (00:22:30): simultaneously -- -- through. It was throw this cauldron, and then you throw another balloon. And, you know Speaker 1 (00:22:38): -- Jason Calacanis (00:22:38): Coupled the -- Hotsworth Speaker 1 (00:22:39): -- -- Elon Musk (00:22:40): oil -- -- Nashville. And then then suddenly, it just comes to you in a dream. I don't know. But but but there there there should be some, you know, objective way to set the thing because this is a this is a material public state. Speaker 1 (00:22:54): -- Speaker 7 (00:22:54): threshold issue. Elon Musk (00:22:55): Yeah. It it you know, it's it's a you know, it's a material adverse misstatement. You know, if if if they in fact have been precipitously claiming less than 5% of fake or spam accounts. But in fact, it is 405 times that number or perhaps 10 times that number. This is a big deal. It's not this it it seemed like if you said, okay. I'm gonna I agree to buy your house. You say the house has less than 5% termites. That's that's an acceptable number. But if it turns out it is 90% termites, that's not okay. You know? It's not the same house. This house is made mostly of Vermont. Don't wait to leave. Literally, your your house will disappear. because it's mostly been a 2 months. So, you know, that that would obviously just not be appropriate. So in in making the Twitter offer, I was obviously relying on the the truth and accuracy of their public filings. And if those those filings are not accurate, it's simply not that that's that it's it's not you you can't pay the same price for something that is much worse than they claimed. Jason Calacanis (00:24:03): And, you know, they say Elon, life's a negotiation. So at a different price, it might be a totally viable deal. Correct? Elon Musk (00:24:11): I mean, that I mean, it's not out of the question. Okay. But I I really would you know, the this is you know, the more the more questions I ask, the more I the more my concerns grow. So You know, at the end of the day, acquiring it has to be fixable and and fixable, you know, with with with reason reasonable time frame and without revenues along the way and all all that sort of stuff. And so, you know, I I really need to see how these things are being calculated, and and it it it can't be some deep mystery that is, like, more complex than the human soul or something like that. It's gotta be, you know, it's it's I think we can apply the scientific method to this and try to figure out what's really going on. And, you know, Twitter's revenue is is primarily dependent. I think 70% or or some of that order on brand advertising as opposed to specific purchase advertising. This is a big deal because brand advertising is not there's not a there's not a purchase that results from that. So it's basically you know, how much mindshare or like, basically, if you're if you're a big company, how how often do they hear your name, it's as opposed to something that where you can directly measure the outcome. So that that means that they're somewhat going on faith. And if that faith is undermined or or reduced because of the reality of the situation coming to the fore, then the the the Tesla's revenue oh, Pritish sorry. The the Pritish revenue will be significantly impaired, and that's a major problem. Speaker 5 (00:25:53): Ewan, did you have a chance to ask these questions during your negotiation? Elon Musk (00:25:58): The like I said, I was reliant upon their their public filings. So to the degree that, like, probably with public and this is normal for a public company. If you, you know, if if if you make a formal filing, that that that is what investors are relying upon relying on whether they are making an acquisition offer or simply buying some shares. So this this this the accuracy of these filings is important whether you're buying 1 share or the whole company. And so if if these filings are inaccurate, if they're sort of potentially blatant. Yeah. It's a big deal. Speaker 8 (00:26:36): Yohan, do you have a sense of why this has been such a persistent problem for Twitter. Do they not have the technical capabilities to solve the the bot problem, or is it more of, like, just a they've under prioritized the issue or been unwilling to because potentially their implications for adadadrevenue. I Elon Musk (00:26:55): I I I don't know. It's it's sort of speculative at this point. So the, you know, the the the worst interpretation would be that they don't wanna look too closely a thing because they might not like the answer. That'd be the worst interpretation. But the bet I'm not sure what the best interpretation is, but the least bad interpretation would be maybe they thought it was this way, but their the way they were doing it was wrong, and they didn't realize they were mistaken. And it simply weren't paying enough attention. It does seem as though it should be a lot easier get rid of the bots and and spam and trolls, then it like, this is not some we're not trying to split the atom here. You know? I'm not trying to get to the moon. Okay? I'm just trying to limit the amount of, obviously, scammy accounts. It it it it's if it's if it's like a Bitcoin giveaway. You know? Probably, It's it's a spammer. You know? Like, it does. Maybe. You know? Jason Calacanis (00:27:51): Wait. You're not giving away a Speaker 1 (00:27:52): 150? Jason Calacanis (00:27:54): I just sent you, Teddy. Elon Musk (00:27:57): If if if you send me 2 Bitcoin, I'll send you one back. Right? That's my Speaker 1 (00:28:02): -- Jason Calacanis (00:28:02): What if I send you Speaker 1 (00:28:03): 20? Jason Calacanis (00:28:05): Actually, I thought one of the interesting things that came up in your product road map, or I I guess this was released and and people covered it, was the possibility of Twitter becoming kind of a super app with payments included, perhaps even doge or something, This seems to me based on your work with with David at PayPal, like a a pretty brilliant idea. What's what's the vision there in terms of if you were able to buy it, you know, perhaps at the right price? what would it look like if, you know, I could add Jason to at Elon Musk, you know, ten bucks or something if, you know, we we were splitting a check or something. Elon Musk (00:28:44): Sure. Well, for those that have used WeChat, I think that's WeChat's actually a good model. if you're in China, it's basically you you kinda live on WeChat. It does everything. It's sort of like Twitter, plus PayPal, plus a whole bunch of other things, and we'll roll into one with actually a great interface. And it's it's really an excellent app. And we don't have anything like that outside of China. So I think it such such an app would be really useful. And just like the utility of of it of of of sort of a a spam free thing where you could you can make comments, you can post videos, you can You know, I think it's important for content creators to have a revenue share. Now now this this does not need to be done on Twitter. It could be done from something that's created from scratch. So it it could be something new. So really but but I think this thing needs to exist whether it is converting Twitter to be the sort of, like, Kind of all encompassing app that that except everything from digital Townsquare were important ideas that abated. You know, I'm maximally trusted and inclusive. And at a point which you're you're you sort of have a high trust situation than than payments whether it's a crypto or fiat can can make a lot of sense. Just we just wanna say that's incredibly useful and that people love using. So that that that but it's it's either convert Twitter to that or start something new. Those are the Speaker 1 (00:30:17): 2 Elon Musk (00:30:17): but it it does need to happen somehow. Jason Calacanis (00:30:20): Well, it's interesting you bring that up because the price of Twitter is pretty high. And you've built a couple of companies, and some engineers like to come work for you. and you've now gone through the intellectual exercise of studying all this. If you're looking at the 2 choices now fixing Twitter given all these problems and maybe just starting your own version. Which one are you leaning towards? because I have watched you build a couple of companies, and the products have turned out pretty good. So is it easier for someone like you to just start from scratch? I mean Speaker 1 (00:30:50): -- Elon Musk (00:30:51): I mean, it's certainly the my my default inclination is to start things from scratch. I mean, I'm not really at or buy things. Like, there's there's still this sort of, you know, Yeah. Like like, SpaceX was started from scratch, you know, in in the case of of Tesla, you know, it was, like, five people. It was still this guy, Mark Everhart, who's the worst guy I've ever worked with who tries to claim, like, so credit, essentially, for creating Tesla. If he's so damn great, why don't he just go, you know, create another car company when he was fired? But, anyway, though Well, I Jason Calacanis (00:31:29): mean, that's a pretty good story. I mean Speaker 1 (00:31:31): -- Elon Musk (00:31:31): Yeah. Only I Speaker 1 (00:31:32): remember because he's a savage. Jason Calacanis (00:31:34): I mean no. But I I remember having this conversation with you we were having a conversation about the roadster. I think I can tell the story. I said, how's it going, pal? And you said, well, I got one problem. It turns out the Roadster parts and putting it together cost a Speaker 1 (00:31:48): 190,000. Jason Calacanis (00:31:49): Yeah. And I said, I gave you a 150 for number 16. So If you make 2000 of these, you're gonna lose $80,000,000, and you're like, yeah, or double that. I mean, they basically the parts of the car cost more than they were selling it for when you were -- Yes. Speaker 1 (00:32:04): -- Jason Calacanis (00:32:04): starting to get involved. That's it was the Speaker 1 (00:32:06): -- Elon Musk (00:32:06): No. No. I I Well well well before that. Jason Calacanis (00:32:09): Before that, yes. Speaker 5 (00:32:10): That involved when when Elon Musk (00:32:11): when when when Tesla was was was nothing but a piece of paper. Let let me be crystal clear. there. No. They didn't bring me in either. Jason Calacanis (00:32:23): If I I I Elon Musk (00:32:24): was gonna start I was gonna start an ED company with JV Stromable. And and based on the the AC Propulsion TZERO, And when I when I asked AC repulsion if it was okay to do that, they said, well, there's also some others who want to create an EV company but have not created one yet Yes. Would you like to join forces with them? And I said, okay. Well, we'll do that. That was a huge mistake. JB and I should have just started the car company ourselves. Instead, we teamed up with Everhard Topening And Right. Big mistake. The the the the actual moral error here was me trying to have my cake and eat too, which is, like, I just wanna work on the technology and the product and have someone else be the CEO and and and sort of run the business operations because I just working on technology and product and sign. And and and, also, it's like doing SpaceX, you know, at the time in our office who will So it seemed like okay. This is like I I always wanted to an electric car company. This is how I can have my cake and eat it too. That was a huge mistake and fundamentally a moral error. And so so in the end, I had to freaking be CEO and I didn't wanna be, basically. So but it's either that or the company's gonna die. So so we started with with really just nothing, and the you know, the the t zero prototype from AC propulsion, right, not it it that's the that's the precursor to Tesla. Yeah. They will to be one half thing could clear once again, when we created Tesla, I when I when I joined, There were no employees. There was no intellectual property. There was no prototype. There was no and nothing. Yeah. Read crystal fucking clear. Jason Calacanis (00:34:07): And It it almost bankrupted you. I mean, you that that sent you to the cliff of installment. I mean, that was Yes. Elon Musk (00:34:22): We're on the ragged edge of bankruptcy so many times. It was ridiculous. So what 2008 was one of the worst years where, basically, the, you know, GM and Ford just the GM, GM and Chrysler. Ford almost went bankrupt. And, you know, trying to raise money for a start up electric car company in 2008 while GM's going bankrupt was difficult to say the least. You know, people are angry that I even ask them for money. They're like, fuck you and hang up. So the the only way that that that Tesla actually made it through 2008 with a subset of the existing investors, which includes, like, like, Antonio Gracias and you know, Steve Jovitson and a and a and a a a few other key people. Our Aaron Price, who who who I've ahold of Datagraph 2 to the state. And and I I I put in all the money I had left, and they said that everything. Literally everything. I didn't rent a house. So this is why I so so I fled the house. So I was like, staying actually in Jeff's call's bedroom spare bedroom. Jason Calacanis (00:35:39): And and but they Elon Musk (00:35:39): were the the the it's it's tough. So the best is would say, okay. If I put in they'll put in as much as I put in. So I put in everything, and and then we close that round, 6 PM, Christmas Eve 2008. It was last hour of the last day that was possible because after that, people were, like, have break into the holidays, and we were bounced payroll 2 days after Christmas. Jason Calacanis (00:36:00): It was pretty -- That store stuff. I mean, it was an incredible moment in time, and and people also forget at the time that the first two rockets SpaceX sent up, didn't exactly make Speaker 1 (00:36:11): it to orbit. Like, what -- Elon Musk (00:36:12): The first 3. Right? Jason Calacanis (00:36:13): Yeah. The first 3. And I remember having dinner with you at that time, and I asked you, hey. How's it going? I heard Gokker says you got 4 weeks of payroll left, and you said that's not true. And I said, thank god. And you said we have Speaker 1 (00:36:25): 2. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:36:25): I said Speaker 1 (00:36:26): -- Elon Musk (00:36:29): No. I mean, Both SpaceX and Tesla in 2008, if we'd simply paid our suppliers on time, we would have gone bankrupt immediately. Jason Calacanis (00:36:38): I Tell us. Tell us actually it was a it was a pretty crazy moment, because I also remember asking you at we were having dinner at Boa, and I said, Well, well, certainly, there's gotta be some good news, and you took out your BlackBerry to date the conversation. I don't remember it. Elon Musk (00:36:55): Oh, yeah. Jason Calacanis (00:36:56): And you said, don't tell anybody, Jake, I said, no problem. And you showed me the clay version of the model s. Speaker 5 (00:37:02): Yeah. Jason Calacanis (00:37:03): The most beautiful car I'd ever seen, and I said, Oh my god. It's stunning. How much is it gonna cost? She said, I think I can make it for 50,000. I remember it was yesterday. I said, if you make that car for 50,000, you'll change the fucking world. and you did it. Jenna, I Speaker 1 (00:37:15): -- Elon Musk (00:37:16): It was a little more than 50,000, but, you know, Speaker 1 (00:37:18): 50. Jason Calacanis (00:37:23): Hi, Shore. Let's ask about Spaces. Okay. Well, that's about SpaceX, but I I wanna ask one more personal question. Has life gotten easier for you as these companies have hit scale or has the complexity made life even more challenging? Because those early days, it was just fighting to survive 5. Nobody knew who you were. You were anonymous, and it was really just about the work. And now let's face it. You're the world's most famous guy. and everybody's watching everything you do, but these companies are also very big. So what's life like for you today? Are you enjoying what you're doing every day? Elon Musk (00:37:57): Well, I mean, it's it's somewhat of a roller coaster. So there are, like, good days and bad days. And there's there were some crisis issues. And, you know, like, sort of, you know, knock on wood, like, we're not, like, facing, you know, death in the face. Like like, it's it's it's definitely, like, quite stressful when, like, you know, death is, like, trying to eat your face off and, like, the the foam is, like, you know, just getting it and I get it right there. You know? No. That's it is pretty stressful in that situation. So, like, right you know, both SpaceX and Tesla have you know, significant cash reserves. So, like, you know, it's not worth staring death in the face. We can sort of see it over in the horizon. You know? So I don't wanna get complacent or entitled. because it but it but it but if it's not like just sort of foaming at the mouth and gnashing and trying to eat your face off on a daily basis, that's certainly, it's we've moved on from that point and hopefully never never return. But but there are a lot of issues that need to be it's just Like, the the if if you're a CEO of a company, the chore level is high. And if you don't do your chores, then the company goes to hell. And I hate doing doing chores, frankly. So who do who does? So that that's the real like, there's a whole bunch of sort of, you know, personnel issues and legal issues and and and things that I I I don't find enjoyable to work on. But if I don't work on them, the company suffers. So it's more like just the sheer volume of work is insane. that's the and then and then, you know, go do something go add to it with, you know, Twitter or something like that. Yeah. So, I mean, honestly, I'm like Speaker 1 (00:39:42): -- -- Jason Calacanis (00:39:42): extra processor. Yeah. Elon Musk (00:39:44): Yeah. I mean, I I have a habit of biting off more than I can chew, and I'm just sitting there with, like, chirping cheeks. Jason Calacanis (00:39:53): Alissa, you know, tell us a little bit about where we are at SpaceX, like how you fund the ability to go to Mars, but then also commercially still build Chamath Palihapitiya (00:40:04): a conventional space business domestically I think this Russia thing was probably really good for SpaceX Jason Calacanis (00:40:10): if you wanna just tell us a little bit about that. Elon Musk (00:40:14): Sure. Well, the the the mean, the goal of SpaceX is to develop the technology that enables life to become multiplanetary and, you know, and make humanity a space sparing civilization, which I think is a very exciting inspiring thing, and it's like some one of those things where you can that that I think just makes kids, like, be excited about the future. And and we we need things that are inspiring and exciting and make the future seem like it's gonna be better than the past. Life can't just be about solving one was a real problem after another. It's gotta be like like what's what's inspiring and exciting. And I think that a future where we are space bank civilization is is one that we can all get excited about. And and and we can go out there and find out what what's what's out there in you in the universe and what's the meaning of life and, you know, where are the aliens, and, hopefully, they're friendly. And that Speaker 9 (00:41:04): kind of thing. So You Elon Musk (00:41:09): know, it's it's interesting. I do get asked about the aliens question a lot. And and I've I've not seen any evidence of of aliens And I'll I'll be the first to, you know, tweet about it or whatever if I can't if I see something. Jason Calacanis (00:41:21): I mean, you'll tell us if you find them. Elon Musk (00:41:22): I will tell you I I will definitely tell you if if there's aliens. And, you know, I think it'd be quite helpful for, you know, like like, if we if we found aliens like, probably SpaceX will get a ton more revenue because people are like, oh, man, aliens, we're gonna upgrade our space technology pronto, which is what Speaker 8 (00:41:42): if we're Elon Musk (00:41:42): on friendly. You know? It's like, you know, that's actually quite scary. Speaker 1 (00:41:48): -- Jason Calacanis (00:41:48): that is the idea that you build basically, the ability to do orbital cargo, take all those profits, launch STARLINK, take all those profits, and move it all into building something that can get to Mars? Is that the kind of rough plan? Elon Musk (00:42:07): Pretty much. It's If if there was, like, a 3 step a a a 3 slide PowerPoint, it would be pretty much as you described, which is to develop rockets that are that are capable of of taking satellites to orbit and crew to the space station, you know, basically servicing government commercial space launch needs. and then build a a global communication system in space that obviously, it does a lot of good for Earth by providing Internet connect Internet connectivity to the least served because a satellite system is really great for remote locations and, you know, countryside or or remote islands or or places where someone's trying to cut off their Internet Jason Calacanis (00:42:55): As a prelude to a war, we take them in the system like in Star Wars. Yep. Elon Musk (00:43:01): Yeah. So it's like you know, so it it can be pretty pretty helpful. Like, I think it like, it's not, like, basically, I think, is a a sort of forceful grid and a tone right. by providing connectivity to the the the the least served or whether but either no connection or a a very expensive or poor connection You know, the like, we're like, we're we're connecting a lot of schools, remote schools in Brazil right now. I'm I'm actually gonna be headed there to sort of kick things off. But they've got a lot of schools that have no connectivity at all. And in a modern age, How do you learn with no connectivity? I mean, you get, I guess, old textbooks and stuff, but it's really you're at huge disadvantage if you have no digital connectivity. So I think there's just a lot of good that Starlink can do in it just by by itself. But but then the the the revenue generated from Starlink is what can enable the of a permanently crude based on the moon, which would be the next, you know, next step from Apollo, which is like, let's just not not go there for a few hours and and and then head back have a bone at the occupied, like, science station on the moon. And we we could also build some pretty epic telescopes on the moon that would enable us to learn more about the nature of the universe and and figure out what's going on and maybe detect those aliens. Jason Calacanis (00:44:24): Do you do you do you think that there's enough profit in those businesses to fund all this, or do you need Wall Street and other investors to come share the load with you It's kind of like, if Speaker 5 (00:44:35): going to Mars a partnership with the government, does it need to partner with governments to get there? Elon Musk (00:44:42): Well, I think, technically, it does not need to partner with governments, but, of course, government support would be helpful. So It's gonna be very expensive to build a self sustaining city on Mars. Like, in order for us to become multipenetrated in a way that's meaningful, The the the key threshold is at which point does the city become self sustaining? such that if the ships from Earth stopped coming for any reason, and it could be any reason. World War 3 or it could be just, you know, civilization subsided and and and and just gradually got to crap it or something. But but if the ships stop coming if the replay ships from Earth stop coming tomorrow for any reason, does the city still survive? And and that that's, like, really a large base of resources that are that that that are needed on Mars, you can't be missing any one critical ingredient. So and and you can think of this like there are these various great filters you know, that that perhaps stop civilizations. And one of the great filters is will we become a multi planet species or not? Will humanity be one of those species that passes the great culture of going beyond a 1 planet and being a multi planet species? And this is certainly something we'll have to do at some point because this the sun is expanding and will eventually boil the oceans and destroy all life on earth. So if you care about life on earth, you should really care about life becoming multiplanetary and ultimately multistellar because otherwise, you're basically saying you're you're signing the the sort death warrant for all life as we know it. It it's it's inevitable. And then there's also the the various things that killed off the, you know, the dinosaurs and and the I mean, you look at the fossil record, there have been 5 major extinctions that are sort of on the order of 89 89% of all creatures on earth dying. for for a wide range of reasons. Elon Musk (00:46:37): But and and then humans can also you know, with with this the the World War 3 danger that where that that other features didn't have where we we could do ourselves in by sort of misusing advanced technology and and sort of just, you know, having some radioactive hell hole that's all that's left after World War Speaker 1 (00:46:56): 3. Elon Musk (00:46:56): So, you know, one you could even characterize it potentially as which will come 1st, World War 3, or life becoming multiplanetary on Mars. Jason Calacanis (00:47:09): Yeah. I'm Speaker 5 (00:47:10): sorry. I was gonna chip, but you know, when you think about the importance of going to Mars versus solving critical energy and climate change problems here on Earth, obviously, the effort with Tesla's related sustainable energy. And I think going back to like probably the 19 fifties, there were engineering designs around plasma fusion or fusion based systems that have evolved to these plasma systems, to Telkomak systems. And every year every decade, it's like, hey, next decade, we're going to have it. What's your point of view on where plasma fusion systems are. Are we gonna have fusion energy this century, this decade? And does it create limitless energy where the electricity production goes up by 10,000 fold and the price of electricity drops by 10,000 fold? And then, what does that world on earth look like if that happens? So, I guess, question is, like, is that technology real? When does it happen? And what happens to the world here when and if that happens. Elon Musk (00:48:06): I'll answer that question, but then I'll I'll I'll let let me sort of point out what the what the actual issue is. If the question is, like, is it possible to solve fusion and energy, Speaker 1 (00:48:17): 100%. Elon Musk (00:48:17): Yes. Definitely definitely definitely definitely is for sure. So the the the and and and really just using a Tokamak style, which is like basically a doughnut ring with with electromagnets that control the the the plasma, the the way to solve that is simply scale up the tokamak. Fusion is very much a scale based thing. You wanna minimize your service volume ratio. So as you scale up up a a talking about you reduce your service volume ratio, which means, like, the the the volume you have relative to this this the surface, you you you now have much more like, you you can basically have a hot zone in the center that's relatively far away from the walls and and and more of a hot zone. So the the so it's it's not, in my mind, a question as to whether each fusion can work. But there is a question as to whether it is economically viable and and whether it is competitive with with with alternatives. I think the the economic viability of fusion is a a much bigger question, and I I think the answer probably is that Fusion Earth, Fusion is not competitive economically. I think that is that is a I I would say it's probably not competitive economically by an order of magnitude. Speaker 5 (00:49:36): What is it break where does it break? Is it a materials breakdown or where does it break down economically? Elon Musk (00:49:41): Well, so so you can't just use a normal hydrogen. You know, you you need to use, like, deuterium and tritium, like, unusual forms of hydrogen. Speaker 1 (00:49:53): 3. Jason Calacanis (00:49:54): Yeah. Elon Musk (00:49:54): Helium Speaker 1 (00:49:55): 3, Elon Musk (00:49:57): You know, there there are some some other types of of fusion that could be used. But these are just not they're they're not like there's not a lot of this raw material. It's quite difficult to get the raw material. So first, you have to get the raw material. that's that's expensive raw material. And then it's not just about generating the the the energy. You've you've got to turn that energy into usable electricity. You can't just have a hot thing. Okay? So the hot thing has to translate to usable electricity. So I think you've got a you've got a cost of of fuel issue, which is very significant. You've got you got a whole bunch of knockdowns from when you generate the heat to when you actually convert that into electricity. You've got some very difficult maintenance issues with with the a fusion reactor. So and and that should be then compared to alternative The the the sustainable energy alternatives that I think are overwhelmingly more competitive are solar energy, wind, geothermal, Hydro, subtitle, and energy, but it's really primarily solar and and wind. Now and you can really say, like, what why bother creating fusion on earth when we have a gigantic fusion reactor in the sky that just works with 0 maintenance, and it shows up every day. Right. Speaker 5 (00:51:30): Pretty consistent. Yeah. But Elon, can we scale to a 1000 or a 100 x r electricity production here using solar and other renewable sources? Elon Musk (00:51:39): Yes. So the the amount of surface area you need to power in the United States is remarkably tiny. So you need, like, basically, roughly a hundred miles by a hundred miles of territory. And it's obviously something in one place in the United States to power the United States. It's like a little corner of Texas or Utah entire country. And and and they if you if you if you you could you could basically power you you're probably 10 x the the just with Solar alone. Without displacing anyone's home, power and economy 10 times the size of the United States in the United States on land. Speaker 5 (00:52:19): What? when energy prices Speaker 1 (00:52:20): -- Jason Calacanis (00:52:21): If you Elon Musk (00:52:21): extend that if you extend that to water because earth is 70% water Speaker 1 (00:52:25): -- Elon Musk (00:52:25): Yeah. -- I mean, you could you could say, okay. Now we could probably have a civilization that is a hundred times as energy intensive as we currently have it. Speaker 5 (00:52:34): And so what what does that look like was the last part of my question? is a world where energy costs are, say, like, a hundred times cheaper than they are today, and we have a hundred times more energy production capacity. What what what changes about civilization? What do we do differently? What do see change most kind of dramatically. Elon Musk (00:52:50): Well, currently, we're we're we're not because of of just generally, low birth rates, almost worldwide. Solization is not headed to have a population that is the order of magnitude greater than where where we're we're currently we're currently headed towards a population decline. And this is almost everywhere in in the world. So, you know, it it basically seems as as though as soon as you have, like, urbanization and and and education be on a certain level and income be on a certain level. Birth rates plummet. And So as countries get get wealthier, their birth rates plummet. It's it's somewhat counterintuitive because people will say, like, well, it's too expensive to have a baby. Nope. The the wealthier they are are the fewer kids you have. The more educated you are, the fewer kids you have. So it's it's it's it's the it's the inverse. So so in Russia, who would use all that energy unless there's a a significant change in the birth rate. or we have a very robot oriented economies. That's also possible. So if we've got a lot of you know, 4 wheeled robots, in both cars, and androids, human robots, then you could certainly see that there'd be perhaps a need for an order of magnitude more energy. But it's not coming from the humans unless something major changes on the on the human birth rate level. This this, by the way, is I think the biggest single threat to civilization right now is the Speaker 1 (00:54:25): -- Chamath Palihapitiya (00:54:25): Yeah. Jason Calacanis (00:54:26): Why why do you think societally people just make those decisions when they become more affluent? Is it that they just become more selfish or there's more things for to do, and Chamath Palihapitiya (00:54:34): they have more money to spend on themselves. And they say, you know what? Jason Calacanis (00:54:37): And I don't wanna have a large family. I wanna, you know, go to Coachella. Elon Musk (00:54:44): Yeah. Well, there there is this, like, weird, like, mind virus y thing where some people are I think, like, having fewer kids is is, like, better for the environment. Jason Calacanis (00:54:53): Yeah. That's crazy. Elon Musk (00:54:54): Total nonsense. The environment's gonna be fine. gotta refine even if we if we doubled the size of the humans. This is and I know a lot about environmental stuff. So, you know, you the we we can't have civilization just dwindle into nothing. And, you know, Japan's leading indicator here. Like, the Japan's population declined by 600,000 people last year. That lowest birth rate in history. It's, you know, it's pretty Speaker 9 (00:55:23): bad. So we I Elon Musk (00:55:26): don't know. We we and I think so so this one element of is is a a a lot of people just think that having kids is is somehow bad for the environment. I wanna be clear it's not. It's essential for the main for maintaining civilization that we at least maintain our numbers. We don't necessarily to grow dramatically, but at least let's not, you know, gradually dwindle away until civilization ends with us all in adult diapers and and and and and and whimper. Like, we don't wanna civilization to end in adult diapers with a whimper. I would suck. Gotta suck. Yeah. Lee. Lee and sad. Jason Calacanis (00:56:03): Well, I mean and and you and I have had this conversation. I mean, in in Japan, I had two people me when I was there, like, I I think it's immoral to bring humans into the world. I mean, people have gotten very sad about the future. It's kinda crazy. The world's great. Life's awesome. Elon Musk (00:56:19): Yes. No. There's there's literally I've heard many times how like, can I bring a child into this terrible world? I'm like, have you read history? Because let me tell you it was way worse back then. Okay? Jason Calacanis (00:56:30): Yeah. Now is a good time. Not a good time to be bored. Hey. You know, listen. I I know you're super busy, but I want to ask you about the move to tech because I've been thinking about it. Austin, California, I I don't know. Some senator told you to go fuck yourself and, like, you know, like, we don't Elon Musk (00:56:47): Yeah. No. He's been a couple of centers with that, actually. Jason Calacanis (00:56:50): Yeah. It it seems to be turning into a bit of a trend. But how has building the Tesla Gigafactory, which I got to see in Austin a couple weeks ago, and it was one of the most inspiring things I've ever seen. I mean, I don't know how many months it took to build there, but how long did it take to build that dread knot, and then what would have taken to build that in California under Gavin Newsom? Elon Musk (00:57:18): So we we're both the the the Giga, Texas, which is the biggest factory in North America. I think possibly the biggest factory in the world And it's it's three times the size of the Pentagon to give you a sense of scale. Okay? This is freaking big. It's like it's weird. It's like so big. It's weird. Like, you drew Jason Calacanis (00:57:35): it's like Speaker 1 (00:57:36): -- Jason Calacanis (00:57:36): I I was trying to find you in it, and it I was trying to drive around, and it took me about 45 minutes to fire you. Elon Musk (00:57:42): Yeah. like, no. You have to, like, call you can't, like, find someone in the building. You have to call them on their cell phone and say, where are you? You know? Yeah. So, I mean, the building is, like, just under a mile long, and we're actually gonna extend it. It will be, like, literally a mile long and about a quarter mile wide, and it's 80 feet tall. So it's just ridiculously big. And what do you think about it? Like, for a manufacturing situation, like, what what one of the 2 the two things that really define manufacturing competitiveness are economies of Scale And Technology. And so if you got an ace on a con like, you if you sort of maximize your your ACE level on on technology and you maximize your ACE level on scale, is obviously gonna be the most competitive situation, and that's why they're so freaking giant. And the the the at at gigataxis will go all the way from sell raw materials, like like like basically rail cars of sell raw materials coming in, and then forming the the battery cell then the battery pack building the the the motor, casting. We're also have introduced a major innovation, which is to cast the entire front third and rear third of the car in as a single beast. I got this idea from toys, actually, because I was like, how do they make toys? Those are cheap. They just cast them. I was like, well, can you pull the casting machine that big? And they're like, well, no one ever has. I'm like, is it are we breaking physics? Like, no. Well, let's just ask them. And there were 6 major casting machines suppliers in the world, and 5 of them said no, and the 6 said maybe. I'm like, I'll take that as a yes. Jason Calacanis (00:59:15): Well, I mean, this you wanted to do this for the model 3, but it was just too soon. And and now it's almost there. Elon Musk (00:59:22): actually, this this partly comes from the multi, which is actually a fantastic car in many ways, but we were rightly criticized for an inefficient design with for the front and rear body. Like, Sandy Monroe, who I think is really ex has excellent from an engineering standpoint and and really a very fair critic, he he he pistol webbed us for the the design of the of the battery. He's like Speaker 1 (00:59:47): -- Jason Calacanis (00:59:47): Let's get a part and piece by piece told you why you suck. Speaker 1 (00:59:50): And then you get to why Jason Calacanis (00:59:52): and tell you why you're awesome. Elon Musk (00:59:53): Yeah. because it it took it apart. It tells us exactly why he's why we sucked, and here's correct. And then and I was like, well, that's pretty embarrassing. So no. There there he was complementary of other parts of the carpet, of the body design, and And so it's like, okay. We're gonna go from, like, you know, the the it's an interesting incredibly difficult party to make. It's made out of, like, a 120 different pieces with dissimilar metals that have joined, and you've got galvanic corrosion challenges. It's it's very difficult to make. To a single piece casting, that's one piece. like, a 120 pieces went down to, like, 1. So it's it's it's a it's a huge and and and the the the model y body shop, especially the new one where we cast both the front and rear, is 60% smaller than the model 3 body shop. So it's it's, you know, gigantic. It's quite a there's there's a lot of innovations at Tesla besides the stuff that is is obvious. Yeah. So, anyway so, yeah, the the And and really, you know, to to be to be fair to to to Gavin Newsome, like, you know, if if you If you if you had a gun to Gavin's head, okay, and said, we need to build start building this factory in California right now. He couldn't do it. because there are so many regulatory agencies and so many litigators in California that wanna stop you from doing anything that even if you're the governor of the of the state, you cannot get it done. So something's gotta be done to to to to you know? because California used to be the land of opportunity, and it's a beautiful state. And I love I loved living there. I still spend a lot of time in California. Even though every time I go there, I get every literally, every day I go there, I get the the Jesus tax Speaker 1 (01:01:38): -- Jason Calacanis (01:01:38): Big tax. Speaker 5 (01:01:39): Big So by day. Yeah. Elon Musk (01:01:40): Like, this year cost per day of me going and working in California days, Boggles the line. And I'm but I still do it. You know? But but it it the the California is going from the land of opportunity to to the land of of of sort of taxes over regulation and litigation. And this is not a good situation. And really, there's gotta be like a serious cleaning out of the pipes in California. Jason Calacanis (01:02:04): How many months was it to get the the giga Austin done? It took a year and a half. 2 years? Elon Musk (01:02:10): Yeah. 18 18 months to build something three times the size of Pentagon. Jason Calacanis (01:02:13): Incredible. And you just basically the answer to how many months it would take in California's Infinity. Elon Musk (01:02:19): We would we would still be working on the permits. Speaker 5 (01:02:21): Yeah. Elon, this this begs a good question, which, you know, like, Just Elon Musk (01:02:28): I'm already graduating. Can you just keep signing paperwork? Speaker 5 (01:02:32): Yeah. One more for for you. What's a better model? Yes. Jason Calacanis (01:02:35): What's a better model for government? So, you know, like, all governments tend to increase in Speaker 5 (01:02:39): complexity. Decatorship capacity. Is this is the dictatorship the right model? And, you know, like like, how do we solve this? Let's say you go to Mars, or let's say you had to fix California. California permanently broken? Is there a way to fix it? Or, like, how do you set up a better model so that you don't end up having this this kind of special interest complexity situation that eventually kills the -- That's true. population? Elon Musk (01:03:03): Well, I mean, I think, ultimately, with California, the the people of California just have to get fed up and and demand change. That's the thing that really has to happen. And and and there's there's gotta be an above 0% chance of the of the Republicans winning in California. If if if it's if it's just the the Democrats every time, Gotta be. Jason Calacanis (01:03:23): Yeah. Yeah. Elon Musk (01:03:23): And this is this is, like, occasionally, it it's the the thing is that right right now, you you you and plus the level of a level of gerrymandering, which is basically just treat treating the people like sheep and and it's it's terrible. that's gone on in California is outrageous. So California, the dems have a super majority in the House and Senate in California and the governor and everything. And so How responsive is any political party gonna be to the people if they are guaranteed to win? It's it's a one party state. Yeah. And so I'm not saying that, you know, go sort of elect the Republicans every time. But if it's never, you're you're just making California a one party state. They will no longer be responsive to people, and they'll only be responsive to those that funded their political campaigns. Jason Calacanis (01:04:13): Clip Elon saying that 30 seconds Speaker 5 (01:04:15): on TV over and over. Go ahead, sex. Speaker 8 (01:04:17): Yeah. So Elon, shifting gears to the economy. You know, we saw this surprise report of negative 1.4 percent GDP growth in q 1. Interest rate's been rising. That increased the cost to the consumer of getting loans, things like that. we've had a stock market correction, really a crash in a lot of growth stocks, software stocks. What from where you sit and the data that you see, Where where do you think the economy is is headed right now? Do you think we're in a recession or is it just a risk? How do you how do you assess our current economic situation? Elon Musk (01:04:50): Well, predicting economic, record economics is always difficult and and want you to assign probabilities to these things. Ironically, I did last year, people asked me what I think about the economy. I said, well, I I think we might enter a recession in approximately spring of of 2020 of Speaker 1 (01:05:07): 2022. Jason Calacanis (01:05:09): Called it mailed it. Elon Musk (01:05:11): Yeah. So now the thing is that the recessions are not necessarily a bad thing. They they, you know, What what I've now been through a few of them. And what what has happened is if you if you have a a boom for that goes on for too long, you get misallocation of capital. It starts raining money on fools, basically. It's like any any dumb thing gets money, and I'm sure you've seen a few of those. So at at at at some point, it gets just out of control, and you just have a misallocation of of human capital where where people are doing things that are silly and not useful to their fellow human beings. And and and then those company there needs to be sort of an economic enema, if you will. Nice to have everyone sort of chipped uncomfortably in their seats. So but but the I'm sorry. Speaker 5 (01:06:04): It's just like visualizing Jason Calacanis (01:06:05): it. The Speaker 5 (01:06:06): economic enema. Elon Musk (01:06:08): Get I mean, listen. It's got alliteration. Jason Calacanis (01:06:14): This too shall pass. Elon Musk (01:06:16): This too shall pass. Eventually, the economic enema does its job It clears out the pipes, if you will. Jason Calacanis (01:06:22): Yes. Elon Musk (01:06:24): And and and and sort of the the the bullshit companies go bankrupt and the ones that are doing useful products are prosperous. And but but there's certainly a lesson here that if one is making useful product and and do it has a company that makes sense. Make sure you're not running things too close to the edge from a capital standpoint. They've got some capital reserves to last through irrational times. Because in the in the past when there's been a recession, it has gone it's it's amazing. It's flipped like a light switch. mean, David, do remember this when from the from the PayPal, you know, ex PayPal base, when when we raised a $100,000,000 in March of 2000 And and we literally we had the the demand was so high. We had people like, VCs, like, just literally without even a term sheet, wiring money into our account. Jason Calacanis (01:07:16): We'll send the term sheet later. Elon Musk (01:07:18): They they literally were, like, like, sleuth out our our bank account number and wire money And we're like, where'd this come from? And it's like, oh, they so it was like there was virtually fire hosing money in March of 2000 And and then in April 2000, the market went into freefall, and it went from money raising money was trivial to even good companies could not raise money. in in a month. So it's just important to bear in mind, like, that, you know, PayPal almost went bankrupt in in 2000. We came close. But but, thankfully, we'd we'd raise that that $100,000,000 in in March 2000 without which we would be game over, basically. And and we kinda saw it coming. So it's like we we we got that the the the x confinity merger done in, like, 3 weeks Adrian is a $100,000,000. Because we were like, oh oh, how is we we see this coming to an end pretty soon. And then a month later, it was like, you know, a nightmare, basically. And and, anyway, so it's just important to make sure if you're a healthy company, you got some capital to get through things. And and and then what what's your cost? And if you if if if it is a recession, which more likely than not, it is a recession, not saying it is, but probably is, then just make watch your cash flow and and get to cut positive cash flow as soon as Speaker 9 (01:08:42): you can. So yeah. But I but Elon Musk (01:08:47): I I think we probably are that that are in a recession and that that recession will get get worse. But, you know, these things pass and then there will be room time to gain. So it'll probably be some some tough going for, I don't know, a year. Maybe maybe, you know, 12 to 18 months is usually the the amount of time that takes for for the a correction to to happen. I mean, what do you guys think? Jason Calacanis (01:09:18): Yeah. Hey, David. How do you feel about it? Speaker 8 (01:09:21): Yeah. I mean, it feels like it started. you know, what started as a slowdown earlier this year now seems like I mean, technically, I guess we need two quarters of negative growth to be in a recession, but it feels like we're in 1. Feels like it started. Yeah. You know, the growth the software businesses that we invest in are so that canaries in the coal mine. And there's a lot of lot of dead canaries. I mean, I'm dead. But Jason Calacanis (01:09:43): You're having a hard time breathing? Yeah. It's it's not gonna be yet. Elon Musk (01:09:49): It's not it's not dead. It's it's just it's just napping. It's -- It's napping. Jason Calacanis (01:09:53): Wake up a little birdie. Elon Musk (01:09:55): Here you go. Jason Calacanis (01:09:57): It's fine. Delicious high. Elon Musk (01:09:59): It's just stunned. It's got it got stunned for a brief moment, and and and it just it'll be fine. It it it it sort of reminds me that the the parrot that that, you know, the pitch up sketch with the parrot with Monty Python. Jason Calacanis (01:10:11): It's Monty Python. Elon Musk (01:10:13): We're it's it's pining this pirate is pining for the fjords. Jason Calacanis (01:10:19): Hey. Elon, a lot has been talked about as we wrap here, and you've been incredibly gracious giving us so much time. Thank you for that. A lot of talk about American Exceptionalism over the last couple years, waning and maybe this country had seen its best days. And we see the work you're doing and other people in this great country are doing. and the debates we're having about the future. And, yeah, China is doing pretty fantastic. Russia's on the ropes. But it does seem like America is still producing some of the greatest companies the world has ever seen. Some of the greatest innovations What are your thoughts on America and our future? And what we need to keep this country and and this beacon of hope that you know, 4 of the 5 of us were not born here. You know? 2 of you came from South Africa. And Speaker 1 (01:11:10): -- Chamath Palihapitiya (01:11:10): No. 3 of you. Speaker 1 (01:11:11): 3 Jason Calacanis (01:11:11): of you came from South Africa. And one of cat I don't know what they're putting in the -- Oh, from Sri Lanka. And from Sri Lanka and through Canada. -- Canada. Via Canada. He came through Canada too. Yeah. I know. It seems like that's the that's the way Canada is a gateway. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:11:23): It is a Jason Calacanis (01:11:24): gateway. And and how how do we it's a well, I'm hinting at the answer here, but, you know, it it does seem like our immigration policy is absolutely insane, and maybe we need to keep collecting some of the great individuals that I get I get to share stage with here and yourself, we need to keep bringing great people to this country. Why can't we get that in our heads that Yeah. Outigration, it's talent recruitment. Elon Musk (01:11:50): No. Absolutely. I think it it's incredibly important that the United States be like, the destination for the world's best talent. I mean, you can think of this like like like a pro sports team. If you wanna win the league, and and, you know, you you want the best players in your team. Now there are obviously a a lot of of very talented people born in the United States But if you could add a few aces from from outside the country to the team, you're gonna win the league. And and and and and here's the thing. Those Aces actually wanna work for your team. They don't wanna compete against you. They wanna they wanna wanna put me on team America. And and so it's like we we we have to, like, fight them off to not be on Team America. That's the crazy thing. And it's like if you have some aces that that are demonstrating winning and losing, we should be, like, really recruiting them. Like, you do recruit, like, a star vascular player or football player, that's what we should be doing. Active recruiting. Just like if you're a company that wants wants to seed, you actively recruit the best talent. And then and and and that's the way to win. And and if if that stops happening, America will stop winning. Jason Calacanis (01:13:02): And we have 2 administrations in a row Biden Entrum who don't want to let the greatest minds, the most talented people into this country. absolutely insane. Elon Musk (01:13:13): You mean, I Jason Calacanis (01:13:13): think that -- You put this every day. Right? Elon Musk (01:13:15): The reality is, like actually, anyone who who's gonna who wants to to to to work hard and beat and and do useful things. And in this, you know, we we want in the United States. And and it's not just people who are sort of intellectually strong, but it's just anyone with a with a strong work ethic, you know, if if they're coming from Mexico or if they're coming from, you know, Europe or China, wherever. It's just if if they're, like, gonna come here and crank hard and and and contribute more than they take, hell, yeah. I mean, that's just it's a no brainer. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:13:49): We -- Have you been have Jason Calacanis (01:13:50): you been disappointed in the similarities between Biden and Trump on this? Like, maybe you could have expected it from Trump because that was a rhetoric he needed to use to get elected. But it's not as if Biden has flipped the script and said, okay. We're gonna go a 180 degrees in the other direction. He's kinda kept it the same, which has been really surprising, actually. Elon Musk (01:14:09): Man, it's hard to tell what Biden is doing for college rank. You know? Like yeah. Like, I feel like -- It's weekend at Bernies. The the the the real president is whoever controls the teleprompter. You know? It's like it it's like the the the path to power is the path to the teleprompter. You know, like, what what because that then he just reads the teleprompter. So, you know, I I do feel like, like, if if somebody would accidentally lean on the lean on the teleprompter, it's gonna be like Anchorman. It's gonna be, qqQ, ASTF 123, you know, type of thing. Jason Calacanis (01:14:45): I mean, in fairness to Biden, he he hasn't been happening as much as he needs to. But, Elon Musk (01:14:52): boy, it's it's Chamath Palihapitiya (01:14:53): hard to -- -- hard job. Jason Calacanis (01:14:54): I mean, let's Elon Musk (01:14:54): just -- -- are getting done. You know? Those I mean, this administration just it doesn't seem to get a lot done. Like and, you know, whatever like, the the Trump administration leaving Trump aside I there there were a lot of people in the administration who were effective at getting things done. So the this administration seems just just do not have, like, the drive to just get shit done. That that that that's my it's it's that's my impression. So, you know, we definitely need to fix immigration policy. Like, we had COVID, which was an issue and and so that was, like, one reason to, like, not, you know, I guess, clamp down on it. But now now now we've moved on. And so let let's let's just make sure we're we're getting top talent in the United States. And and and really, I'd say broadly, it's anyone who who wants to work across all and and contribute more than they take to the economy. Like, that's just necessarily gonna make for a stronger better society in America. Jason Calacanis (01:15:58): Elon, did you see Jeff Bezos's tweet back and forth with Biden? Chamath Palihapitiya (01:16:04): Where Biden, I think, was talking about Jason Calacanis (01:16:06): inflation. Inflation, but then he correlated that to taxing corporations. And Bezos said, this is misinformation and disinformation, etcetera, etcetera. What do you what do you think about that whole exchange then back and forth? Elon Musk (01:16:17): I mean, the the obvious reason for inflation is that the government printed a zillion amount of more money than it had, obviously. So it's it's like the government can't just, you know, have issue checks far in excess of revenue without there being inflation. You know, velocity of money held constant. So unless it's something would would change with velocity of money, but but it it it just look. The the federal government writes checks, they don't they never bounce. So that is effectively creation of more of more dollars. And if if there are more dollars created then the increase in the goods and services output of the economy, then you have inflation. Again, lost your money held constant. But so this is this is very basic this is not, like, you you know, super complicated. And and if if if the government could just issue mass amounts of money and have a and and deficits didn't matter, then why don't we just make the deficit a hundred times bigger? Okay. The answer is you can't because it it will basically turn the dollar into something that is worthless. So and and various countries have have tried this experiment multiple times. It's not like, oh, I wonder what happens if this if if if this is done. Yeah. Have you seen Venezuela? Like, the the poor people of Venezuela are you know, have been just run rough shot by their government. And so, obviously, you can't simply create money. The the the true economy is very important. Like, the true economy is the output of goods and services. It's not money It's it's literally what is the output of goods and services. Money is simply a way to to for us to or anything that you call money is is a way for us to conveniently exchange goods and services without having to engage in butter and also to shift obligations in time. that those are the two reasons that you have money. This thing called money. It's it's really a it's a database. Elon Musk (01:18:14): Money is a is an is an information system for for labor allocation and for exchanging goods and services and for translating in time. And the quality of that information is a function of it's it's like you basically, you can apply information theory to money. And and I think it it it helps explain why one money system is or why why one action is better than another. And so if, like, the the the you you you just just like a an Internet connection. You'd want something that's high bandwidth, low latency and jitter, and it is not dropping packets. It's not having a lot of errors in the system. And the same is true true of money. You want then that and and really, like you said, what what did PayPal really really do that helped improve the the the the bandwidth, the the speed at which money could move. Instead of of mailing checks back and forth, which amazingly that was what people did, in in Speaker 1 (01:19:09): 2000, Elon Musk (01:19:12): you you could now do real time exchange of of money and and now you could ship your goods immediately instead of mailing a check and waiting for the the bank to clear the check. So Like and and the the ultimate thing with PayPal or or if it sort of was in the x.com sort of went went more less sort of niche payments, more sort of financial would be to simply just at it a distance to mediate all the heterogeneous cobalt databases out there running on mainframes during batch processing. and have a single real time system that that was secure and not batch processing. And so It would just it would just be from an information standpoint more efficient and and eventually it would all the the batch processing cobble mainframes operated by the banks would cease to exist. Jason Calacanis (01:20:01): You've spent more time and built more in China than Almost anybody. I mean Apple would be the only company I could think of that's probably got a bigger footprint but I'm not certain of that. What have you learned about China? that you didn't know before you opened the factories there and started delivering cars there. And what should we know about China, you know, as Americans? How should we think about chime in our relationship with it because we haven't spent time there. Elon Musk (01:20:28): Sure. Well, let's say, like, China, 1st of all, is not monolithic. It's not like every everything is not some plot by the Chinese government. The the the the there are many factions within China that compete vigorously within China. And so And and and and perhaps most important is that there's just a tremendous number of hardworking smart people in China who wanna get ahead and get things done and they're not complacent, and they're not entitled, and they're gonna they're they're they wanna get things done, and they they they wanna make a better life for themselves. And what we're gonna see with with China for for the first time that anyone can remember who is alive is an economy that is twice the size of the US, possibly three times the size of the US, and it's gonna be very weird living in that world. So we we better stop the infighting in the US and stop punching ourselves in the face because, like, there's a whole there's way too much you know, of of America punching itself in the damn face, which is just dumb. And and think about, like, hey. We gotta be competitive here. And and there's a new kid in the block that's gonna be 2 to 3 times our size. We we better step up our game. and, you know, and stop in fighting. Jason Calacanis (01:21:51): You think it's easier to Chamath Palihapitiya (01:21:52): stop in fighting once we're beaten, Jason Calacanis (01:21:54): or do you think that there's a Chamath Palihapitiya (01:21:55): way folks here can actually just, you know, get their political and commercial act together. But or does it not happen until we've realized we've lost? Or do we need a war? Elon Musk (01:22:06): I sure I mean, we I sure hope we don't even need a war, but but there there will be certainly you know, an an economic competition that I think will will blow people away. when they realize just how competitive they have to be to be competitive with companies in China. It's very difficult. You know, Tesla is competitive. The Tesla is competitive because we have an an awesome team in China that you know? So Speaker 1 (01:22:35): -- Jason Calacanis (01:22:36): Like, do your Tesla China employees work some meaningful percentage more or harder than your Tesla non China employees. Do you find, like, it's 2 different companies, basically? Elon Musk (01:22:46): Well, I mean, for I I think Tesla is somewhat it it it Tesla is sort of pretty far out there in terms of work ethic anywhere in the world. So the Tesla work ethic in the US, I think, is substantially greater than any other car company or or any large manufacturing company that I'm aware of. So, you know, Tesla, Tesla does have a a strong worth worth ethic in in in the US. But but to be totally frank, it it it it the work that work ethic is exceeded on balance by the Tesla China team. That that is, I think, objectively true. So does not say there aren't lots of hardworking people at Tesla, US. There certainly are. But if you say on average, the the the work ethic in China is higher. It's just Speaker 1 (01:23:39): -- Jason Calacanis (01:23:39): Tell us tell us -- We're Elon Musk (01:23:40): calling a client like it is. You know? So Speaker 1 (01:23:42): -- Jason Calacanis (01:23:42): What about if you're an American Chamath Palihapitiya (01:23:44): CEO How do you deal with, do you think, just the need for managing all these political factions inside of a company? You probably saw you know, all this German drawn related to Disney and what happened to them and what's continuing to happen to them on both sides between their employees as well as Jason Calacanis (01:24:01): the governments, etcetera. You have any advice or what do you tell, like, young CEOs that you hang Chamath Palihapitiya (01:24:07): out with about how to deal with that, how to make those decisions where you went, in the spectrum of dealing with all of this stuff. The non work issues that are related to now, you know, going to work every day. Elon Musk (01:24:20): I'm not sure I entirely understand what you mean. Like Speaker 1 (01:24:22): -- Jason Calacanis (01:24:24): You know, all of all the that whether it's the Chamath Palihapitiya (01:24:26): the need for political correctness or the need for having political points of view and having to bring that and balance that in the workplace. How do you deal with that? How do you Speaker 7 (01:24:34): give advice to other folks about having to deal with it? Elon Musk (01:24:36): look, I think it you know, the the the point of a company is to produce useful products and services for your fellow human beings. It is not you know, some political gathering place or a thing where it that's the point of the company. Like, it's I'd say, like, it's you know, politics and other stuff should It's not Blue side of why companies should exist. So and I I I I gotta I gotta I'm I'm actually laid for Speaker 1 (01:25:06): -- Jason Calacanis (01:25:07): Yeah. I I I apologize. Speaker 1 (01:25:08): -- Elon Musk (01:25:08): work on the rocket, guys. Jason Calacanis (01:25:10): Yeah. We're gonna go ahead and let you get to Mars, and I'll see you soon. Thank you. -- Adam if you love us. Thanks for that, brother. Speaker 3 (01:25:22): We'll let your winners ride. Jason Calacanis (01:25:25): Rainman, David Sacker. Speaker 3 (01:25:30): We open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. besties are gone. Jason Calacanis (01:25:52): We should all just get a room and have one big huge order because they're all just useless. It's like this, like, sexual tension that we just need to release them out. What? You're the What? Pure feet. Speaker 8 (01:26:03): Be your feet. Sweat. Jason Calacanis (01:26:06): We need to get mercies are back.