2022 年预测：商业、政治、科学、科技与加密

Jason Calacanis (00:00:00): So I was not gonna bring this up. Saks said bring it up. David Sacks (00:00:03): No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. You're already creating mischaracterizations. Jason Calacanis (00:00:07): You said you want to bring it up. David Sacks (00:00:08): I'm like, sure. I don't I'm not gonna veto it. Go Jason Calacanis (00:00:10): for it. I said well, you have to bring on my COVID, obviously. I'm the 2nd bestie to get COVID. And I told you offline without the other 2 besties, I will just say I got it at a social function, period end of story. You said it's okay to talk about David Sacks (00:00:25): Yeah. It's not like I wanted to bring it up. You wanna bring it up, and I'm allowing it because I I'm fine with it. So go for it. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:00:31): We all got something at Saks's event. You got COVID. I got chlamydia. That's awesome. Jason Calacanis (00:00:37): Oh, you guys went to the downstairs room? Chamath Palihapitiya (00:00:40): He downstairs. I give him a picture of him. Goddamn it. Tremont, like, god. You Jason Calacanis (00:00:47): promised. It was a great party. David Sacks (00:00:49): Right. Let's let's hear Jason's accusation. I've been hearing about it all week of the shot. Jason Calacanis (00:00:53): It was a great party. David Sacks (00:00:54): No. You could say Jason Calacanis (00:00:55): it knows that you owe your super strategy. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:00:57): to greet COVID to and you were angry, you were angry, and you were, yeah, you were really mad at Saks because you thought he actually gave you COVID even though Saks had people test, every single person tested on the way in. Jason Calacanis (00:01:09): Except you, Jakeel. Jakeel, you walked around the velvet room. I have. David Friedberg (00:01:12): And you said, guess what? I'm a bestie. I don't have the test and you walk right in the party. Jason Calacanis (00:01:16): And guess what? And the other David Friedberg (00:01:18): day, at the end of the day, there's Chamath Palihapitiya (00:01:19): nothing -- -- one person that thought of the rules got it. Carm is a bitch, checkout. David Friedberg (00:01:24): Nothing better personifies poetic justice as what total is. Jason Calacanis (00:01:27): I do not place blame on anybody for allstate. David Friedberg (00:01:30): You ran you ran at SaaS, You make fun of him. You poke him. You Chamath Palihapitiya (00:01:34): poke prepare. this. Republic on that. Probably some of this. Jason Calacanis (00:01:37): to get super spreader. It was a GOP super spreader. David Friedberg (00:01:40): Go to his party. and you run around the velvet rope and you don't get your test and you Jason Calacanis (00:01:44): go in and you walk out with -- Why should I have to test? That was what Chamath Palihapitiya (00:01:48): you guys have. That was really amazing. Jason Calacanis (00:01:49): I don't wear a lie, so I'm a baddie. David Sacks (00:01:51): think he walked out with COVID, because I think he walked in with COVID. There you go. He's the only one not to test, so who brought him in? Jason Calacanis (00:01:56): I did test. My daughter and I came to your wonderful party. it was amazing. It was delightful. David Sacks (00:02:01): And -- We tested. And no. You didn't. When when you got the party Jason Calacanis (00:02:04): -- -- 100% tested. You told the lie. -- David Friedberg (00:02:06): did You do what you do. David Sacks (00:02:07): You are either lying then or you're lying now. Jason Calacanis (00:02:10): -- Chamath Palihapitiya (00:02:10): or you're lying now. Which one? Jason Calacanis (00:02:11): I was joking then. I 100% tester with my choking. Now you were David Sacks (00:02:15): telling the truth. Jason Calacanis (00:02:16): -- was on the line testing with me. I had the bracelet. I tested. A 100%. When I asked David Sacks (00:02:20): you, when you got into the party and I said, had your COVID test go. You said, oh, I pulled my bestie card. I walked around. I pulled my bestie card. Jason Calacanis (00:02:28): That's not true. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:02:29): That's true. David Friedberg (00:02:29): That's what you said. Jason Calacanis (00:02:31): You guys are saying that. Probably making a bullshit now. David Sacks (00:02:34): No. You said that. Jason Calacanis (00:02:35): Okay. I may I may have made a joke, but I 100% judgment. You can't David Sacks (00:02:39): get fucked. Jason Calacanis (00:02:39): -- David Sacks (00:02:39): find out. The reason why Jade wasn't at the party, she was home taking care of 2 sick kids. Jason Calacanis (00:02:45): No. She wasn't. We David Sacks (00:02:46): had -- She was. Jason Calacanis (00:02:46): -- one kid. David Sacks (00:02:47): One kid is acting suitable for Joey. -- wasn't you. Okay. Jason Calacanis (00:02:50): We know -- I know David Sacks (00:02:51): it's you, Fredo. I know it's you, Fredo. Jason Calacanis (00:02:54): -- brought it to the party. -- David Sacks (00:02:55): hurt my heart. Jason Calacanis (00:02:57): Alright. Here's what happened. I went to the party I did test. There was a group of people that got there early, had tested at another event. They told me this. They had tested before they got there. And they told me that they had accidentally brought it with them because they were the first to have a positive test result. So in all likelihood, it was that group There's no it doesn't matter who brought it because Omni Omni Cron is going everywhere. What is it? Omni Macron. David Friedberg (00:03:26): It's a it's a character from I don't understand that. David Sacks (00:03:29): What do you mean they it with them. If they tested negative -- They Jason Calacanis (00:03:31): came from another location. They tested they claim they tested Then they were the first to come up that next day with a positive result. It takes David Sacks (00:03:43): longer than 24 hours to incubate. Jason Calacanis (00:03:45): Right. So that means they must have brought it with them. They they test it on Sunday and had it. David Sacks (00:03:49): They weren't the party setting. Negative at the door. Jason Calacanis (00:03:52): They did not test at the door. They told me they told me they started the day before David Sacks (00:03:56): or shooting or coming. Jason Calacanis (00:03:58): -- of the door including staff including vendors. David Sacks (00:03:58): There are people who are turned off, but this is a positive. Jason Calacanis (00:04:03): So you didn't test. David Sacks (00:04:04): Oh, you're trying to blame it on Jason Calacanis (00:04:05): -- No. I specifically have tried to not say the person's name, you're trying to include them David Friedberg (00:04:10): in -- -- fleet down. It doesn't matter. David Sacks (00:04:12): They were all negative at the time of the party. Jason Calacanis (00:04:14): You hosted a super spreader. They David Sacks (00:04:15): didn't get it till, like, 5 days later. they were not the earliest to test. You tested positive. You had symptoms before they did. Remember the tickle in the throat? Guys, you already said last week, you had the tickle in the throat? Anyway, Jason Calacanis (00:04:27): Thank you for giving me omicron. I am now fucking super according to all results, I am now Superman. Have Chamath Palihapitiya (00:04:35): you tested negative now? Jason Calacanis (00:04:36): Not yet. I yeah. I did a test yesterday. 9 days later, I'm still coming up positive. I had 2 days of symptoms, not that any of you give a shit. You rap bastards. that you just laugh about my COVID. Nobody had no point in this conversation. Did any of you say how are you feeling? Chamath Palihapitiya (00:04:50): Was there any chance of death? Was there any chance Jason Calacanis (00:04:54): -- I was triple vaxx. I had done Moderna. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:04:56): At any point, though, did you feel like, oh, shit. I may have to go to the hospital. I may need Jason Calacanis (00:05:00): to go to bed to it. No. That's too bad. I the tickle of my throat on Tuesday. David Sacks (00:05:03): one of his symptoms. He coughed three times. He seems twice and prematurely ejaculated once. Those were his symptoms. Jason Calacanis (00:05:13): The Leonard Winter Ride. Rainman, David Sachs. And I said -- We open source it to the fans and make discoveries. Love you. is gonna be our prediction show. Last week, we did, of course, our 2021 bestie Awards. How did Eddy everybody feel about last week's awards? I think it was great. I haven't even done it. David Friedberg (00:05:37): Quite well. Jason Calacanis (00:05:38): Yeah. I was happy. David Friedberg (00:05:39): It was a fun show. I think we we all got to kinda talk about stuff we wanted to talk about, and and it was pretty dynamic. I thought it was good show. I like this. Jason Calacanis (00:05:48): It was David Sacks (00:05:48): like a greatest hits. Jason Calacanis (00:05:49): So we're gonna do some predictions for next year. you gonna do a David Friedberg (00:05:52): drum roll and a and a little scene as well? Jason Calacanis (00:05:55): Yes. Okay. Here we go. David Friedberg (00:05:56): Here's an opening. Here's an opening. Jason Calacanis (00:05:57): -- David Friedberg (00:05:58): flying into the future, like, going through some is. Yeah. Do space. Yeah. Jason Calacanis (00:06:02): War speed. War speed. Flying to the air. Warm wormhole -- Yeah. -- other side of the universe, here we are in 2022. Biggest political winner 2022, what did Trevor Carlson's former writers tell you to say Saxon. I okay. It never end sex. Never ends. He's never gonna end. People were intrigued about what was the second battle about That was the big debate post. Oh, who knows? I can't remember David Friedberg (00:06:36): the last 16 years. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:06:37): About the beep beep. which led to me writing the Google Doc about beep beep David Sacks (00:06:42): beep beep beep beep beep Chamath Palihapitiya (00:06:43): beep beep David Friedberg (00:06:44): beep beep beep beep beep beep beep David Sacks (00:06:45): beep beep beep beep Jason Calacanis (00:06:46): beep beep beep is political winner. Okay. Let's stop at the inside baseball. David Sacks (00:06:49): My biggest political winner for 2022 -- Predictive. Jason Calacanis (00:06:52): -- David Sacks (00:06:52): I predict my man, Ron DeSantis, will be the big winner. He's up for reelection in Florida. He won in 2018 with less than Jason Calacanis (00:07:00): 1% David Sacks (00:07:01): of the vote. It was a real nail biter. This time, I think he's gonna cruise to reelection quite handily. and become the national front runner on the GOP side. And the reason is because he had the right approach on COVID. He made the vaccine available. He the antibodies available. But ultimately, he treated the population like adults. He let them make their own decisions. Yep. He kept businesses open, schools open. And I think the rest of the country is gonna come around to his point of view because of the unstoppable of Omicron next year. And so I think that DeSantis, who is much maligned and disparaged, will come out as the big winner a year from now. Right. Jason Calacanis (00:07:41): Who do you got, Friedberg? Vladimir Putin. David Friedberg (00:07:44): I think Putin's gonna benefit from the rising conflict between the US and China. The other day, there was a call between Putin and GDM, they said and and Putin called g, his dear friend, and said that relations between the two countries had reached an unprecedented high level. And I think that his position economically as a trade partner with China and as a beneficiary of Chinese economic prosperity will only grow as tensions between the US and China Friedberg. I think we're seeing that with some of his cavalier behavior with the Ukraine right now. And I think Putin will become a stronger player on the global stage particularly as it relates to his relationship with NATO over the next year. And he's been a little bit quiet the last few years. He was kind of I'd say suppressed with sanctions and all the other nonsense that's gone on to keep him at bay, but he could kind of rise up again in 2022, and and he could become a a real player on the the geopolitical space globally in a more meaningful way than he has in the last couple of years. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:08:51): I mean, you you white guys love Putin. It's crazy. The white's love Putin. Jason Calacanis (00:08:55): I love it. God. I hate Putin. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:08:56): I mean, if you ranked if you ranked Russia GDP, do you know even do you have any idea where it even ranks? You Jason Calacanis (00:09:01): know? Russian Chamath Palihapitiya (00:09:01): GDP is probably -- Do you guys for the amount of time you guys give -- It's probably airtime. Probably Jason Calacanis (00:09:06): 8? I mean, no. No. What about Nigeria? Chamath Palihapitiya (00:09:08): Nigeria's like crushes Russia. Nobody ever talks about Nigeria has all the same inputs except they're black. Jason Calacanis (00:09:14): They just don't have 2000 nuclear weapons. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:09:17): I mean, as if those were big reason. Jason Calacanis (00:09:18): I mean -- It's a fallen empire for sure, but they still have 2000 nukes. David Friedberg (00:09:21): Yeah. They they have Jason Calacanis (00:09:23): -- -- David Friedberg (00:09:23): the position, the energy that it provides to Europe, Eastern Europe. I mean, Russia Jason Calacanis (00:09:27): is geopolitically pretty significant. In significant economically, significant because they have a madman running the country. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:09:34): I don't think he's a madman, but I I'm just saying that, you know, there's there's a lot of ink that's spilled about Russia. And I don't think anybody even takes a step back and actually looks Jason Calacanis (00:09:42): at what you got for yours. It's not food market. -- Chamath Palihapitiya (00:09:44): in the world, guys. I my my worldwide biggest political winner for 2022 is Jason Calacanis (00:09:53): Xi Jinping. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:09:56): I think this guy is he's firing on all cylinders, and he is basically ascendant. So 2022 marks the 1st year where he's essentially really ruler for life And so I don't think we really know what he's capable of and what he's gonna do. And so that's just gonna play out. Jason Calacanis (00:10:14): You think he's the biggest political winner, really? David Friedberg (00:10:17): Oh my god. I think Chamath Palihapitiya (00:10:17): I think it's going to be a he's gonna run rough shot not just domestically but also internationally because you have to remember, he controls so much of the critical supply chain that the western world needs to be Jason Calacanis (00:10:29): -- I I think you're completely wrong. Let alone. I think you're completely wrong. I think he's losing his power. He's scared. That's why he took out all these CEOs He's consolidating power because he fears that they're gonna win too big and then displace him. And he has massive real estate problems over there that could blow up at any moment in time. He could face a civil war there. I think he's totally isolating himself. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:10:50): Civil war would never even have guns. Jason Calacanis (00:10:52): -- major country is removing their fat trees, Chamath Palihapitiya (00:10:54): and we're really in this tendency. there. Jason Calacanis (00:10:56): What are you talking about? What are Chamath Palihapitiya (00:10:57): they what are they gonna riot with? Jason Calacanis (00:11:00): Did you not CTMN Square? Did you not see the riots in Hong Kong? Are you not paying attention from off? There there's been many riots in China that Chamath Palihapitiya (00:11:06): just happened to kill all these. Jason Calacanis (00:11:08): -- were crushed. And that's completely actual control. But he still will have massive amounts of, I believe, protests, and, yeah, he'll have David Sacks (00:11:16): to kill people. Jason Calacanis (00:11:17): I think David Sacks (00:11:17): I think the the the bigger risk is is that China gets better for Xi Jinping, but worse for everybody else in China. It's already worse for all the billionaires over there. It's worse for the tech industry. you now got Evergrand that whole, you know, gigantic debt implosion. I think there could be contagion from China next year. I don't think -- I agree. she's gonna lose his grip in any way. But I'm not sure China's gonna have a good year next year. Jason Calacanis (00:11:42): Gonna be terrible. I'm I went with Ron DeSantis with Usax. I think he's obviously a much more he's a much more palatable candidate that Trump, and I think Trump is not gonna wanna run. And that brings me to my biggest political loser for 2022 as we segue I believe this is gonna be split between Biden and Trump. The 2 most important people of the last 4 -- They're called -- -- years, and I think Biden is gonna lose the midterm and I think Trump is gonna get destroyed with this January 6th thing and bow out and not run again. Who do you got for your biggest loser? David Sacks (00:12:18): Let me add an octogenarian to that. which is my my pick for biggest political loser next year is Nancy Pelosi. I there's a red wave coming. The Democrats for sure go lose the house that is baked into the cake. And I predict she will announce her retirement shortly after that. She has served, you know, a couple of pretty consequential terms as speaker. She's never lost a vote, but with this whole build back better, she forced all of her moderates to take a vote on 5,000,000,000,000 in new spending, which they then lost in the senate. And that's gonna cost them some seats. So she contributed to, I think, her own downfall that's gonna happen next year. Jason Calacanis (00:12:53): Is are you is Nancy gonna come work at social and you're gonna give her a bucket of capital to come out to work with to to try to play the market. David Sacks (00:13:01): By the way, Jason, who's the excellent writer you got from Tucker because I went hire them. Jason Calacanis (00:13:06): Alright. Hey. Listen. I I got somebody from the YouTube comments who said they would they would punch me up. Alright. I got Biden and Trump. Nancy Pelosi, and then who do you got, Friedberg? Who's your biggest political loser of 2022 prediction? David Friedberg (00:13:18): Mine's a little depressing, but I'm honestly a little bit worried about the United States influence on kind of a global stage socially, politically, economically. And I think that there's a number of events that could catalyze kind of a precipitous series of events that could really harm the continuing influence the US has geopolitically. So you know, I don't really have an individual, but I kind of have the US and its and its role on the global geopolitical stage. Jason Calacanis (00:13:51): US influence. US influenced. Yeah. And you said you thought there was gonna be this potential tipping point perhaps? Did you see that being Taiwan or what? David Friedberg (00:13:59): I've got a couple of them. I think when we get into our contrarian points of view, I'll share some of them. Jason Calacanis (00:14:04): Okay. Chamath, who do you got for your biggest political loser for 2022 prediction? Chamath Palihapitiya (00:14:09): Well look I I like your pick of Trump which is not mine but just to double down on this Trump thing. It's incredible to see that he's just a a bamboozler. You know, that's the same guy who's like, you know, telling people to not take the vaccine gets boosted. Then, you know, when he finally gets outed with this other scumbag, What's that guy's name? What's another right knob? Sax, take out your phone and go to speed dial. Jason Calacanis (00:14:40): Just read it. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:14:42): Riley for speed dial. Biller Riley. Biller Riley. Yeah. That's gonna afford to speed dial. Those two dopes on stage are like, yeah. I got boosted. What about you? Yeah. I got triple facts then. And then everybody's booing them. I mean, they're just such Jason Calacanis (00:14:54): -- Watch what they do, not what they say, Chamath Palihapitiya (00:14:55): because you're an entertainer. Jason Calacanis (00:14:56): -- shit on the all night. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:14:58): The great thing is they are phenomenal entertainers. but you can't trust a single word that they say. So Jason, I I think that that's a pretty good pick. My pick is the progressive left as a class because I think these guys are being exposed basically for just being laughing stocks. They're be quickly becoming policy jokes inside of Washington and in every city state that they run, they just can't seem to put one foot in front of the other and they've been run amok with folks like these teachers' unions who have really, really, really done a number on our children, which is now finally getting exposed in the mainstream media. And so all of these policies are just they're not rooted in any sort of science or legitimacy. So they are I think going to pay a pretty heavy political price for mainstream voters in 22. You Jason Calacanis (00:15:50): know what they remind me of those 2 guys? Like, the old guys from the mupp, it's Statler and Waldorf. That's what, like, those Trump and O'Reilly are. Okay. Biggest Disney. -- Chamath Palihapitiya (00:15:59): can still I think Biden can still save save a lot of his long term reputation. I think Trump's Jason Calacanis (00:16:05): is What would Biden need to do in 2022? Number 1 then. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:16:09): He needs to disavow the progressives and basically shore up his party's ability to win back some seats and hold the line. And so -- How would he do to be able to enter some of these places with some of this rhetoric that, you know, he basically was convinced would be necessary for him to not lose the progressive left. There just needs to be a conversation inside the White House where they actually go through the cold political calculus of, you know, my enemies, enemies, but actually my friend kind of thing and actually go back to the center. David Sacks (00:16:35): Yeah. He needs to pull a Bill Clinton and then try and wait. He needs Chamath Palihapitiya (00:16:38): to pull a Bill Clinton. Okay. And quickly too. I David Sacks (00:16:41): think it's way too early to conclude that the Biden presidency is over. I mean, I think I think they're gonna lose congress next year. That's baked into the cake, but He still got 2 years after that to pull his chest outside of the fire. Right. And if the Republicans over play their hand and he tacks towards the center, you know, he can change his fortunes. Jason Calacanis (00:16:59): Or he Chamath Palihapitiya (00:16:59): can change his fortunes quickly. Jason Calacanis (00:17:00): He's down upon, but he could develop the board. I got him. David Friedberg (00:17:03): Alright. I think the voice of populism is only gonna swell over the next year. And that that's gonna be the predominant force that's gonna drive both the alt right and the progressive left. And it it you know, you could make the case that, you know, politicians that are in seats should be kind of disavowing these what we today are calling kind of extreme voices, but they're only getting a ladder and the importance of kind of populist movements, not just in the US, but you look around the world. I mean, look happening in Brazil, various European countries. I mean, it is -- Wait. Jason Calacanis (00:17:35): So you think populism is gonna have a a rebound in 2022? We're all saying that we think it's fizzling. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:17:41): Well, I can I just say free birds Jason Calacanis (00:17:42): -- David Friedberg (00:17:42): I think populism is swelling, and I think it's gonna get louder. And -- Oh, okay. Low interest low interest rates are simply keeping things at bay for now. And I think that's gonna shift very quickly and put -- -- popular. Jason Calacanis (00:17:52): -- Chamath Palihapitiya (00:17:53): just means what's popular. And so I think there's a huge silent majority that's always stayed on the sidelines because they're not the ones that that are tend to tend to have a tendency to complain. But when things get important enough, they typically show up. And so you know, we may find that actually centricism is what's most popular. David Friedberg (00:18:09): I think populism is anti elitism. And I think that there is a growing concern globally because of globalization that power and capital has been concentrated in the hands of a few that the voice of the majority is we want to be shared we want that to all be shared equally. And that's what's driving populism around the world. And it's in the US, you know, manifesting in different ways on the left and the right, and you'll see this in in other countries around the world. But I don't see the fundamental driving forces changing there. until and unless we have massive taxation and redistribute wealth in a meaningful way or some massive shift in government the that that voice is gonna get any quieter. I think it's only gonna get louder. And there may be perturbations between here and there of, like, what it looks like, but it doesn't seem to be going away. That that that's that's just to me kind of the the the underlying driving force, and it's manifesting with different political stuff right now. Jason Calacanis (00:19:04): But -- Interesting. -- David Friedberg (00:19:05): it's not it doesn't seem to be silencing. Jason Calacanis (00:19:07): Biggest Business winner for 2022. Tremont, let's start with you. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:19:11): Small businesses. I think what we are starting to see is that these monolithic monopolistic mega corps aren't everything that they're cracked up to be. And so there's going to be a certain amount of lock in that we will tolerate. There's going to be a lot of taxation and policy that prevents its further growth and all of that opportunity accrues to smaller companies. And so in general, I think that if you are on the side of the David versus these Goliaths over the next year, you're gonna have or, well, frankly, over the next several decades, starting really next year. You're gonna do really well. And the middle companies, so the folks that are neither huge nor are small. Let's take a an example like a Shopify, a $100,000,000,000 market cap, but it's by no means is it a $1,000,000,000,000 market cap. Their success comes from enabling you know, arming the rebels. And so I'm a huge fan of these enabling this enabling layer for small businesses. Both offline and online. Who do David Friedberg (00:20:16): you got, Friedberg? I am actually gonna go with Stripe. Stripe is a payment terminology company based in San Francisco. Stripe raised money earlier this year at a $95,000,000,000 valuation. The highest valued IPO tech IPO in was Alibaba. They were valued at $230,000,000,000 when they went public. We are hearing rumors that Stripe might, you know, kind of or think that they bankers think that they might be able to break that. And so Stripe's IPO could be the biggest tech IPO ever. I think they've been talking about doing a direct listing. By the way, I don't know I don't know the investors. I I don't know the company. I'm not an investor, so I don't have any information whatsoever. I'm simply an observer and and talk to people in the market. But it sounds like They're going for direct listing, and we could see that become the highest valuation tech IPO ever, and then they will become kind of the golden child next year and, you know, kind of be be part of the, you know, the the top of the top. Jason Calacanis (00:21:12): What do you got? Sex? David Sacks (00:21:14): I got rise of the rest, meaning the parts of the United States that are not the traditional California and New York Centers of Industry And Wealth. I think it's a trend that's been going on, but it's gonna keep getting bigger next year. If you guys saw the net migration numbers by state, they're absolutely stunning. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:21:33): stunning. David Sacks (00:21:33): So and it's the it's the 0 tax states that are just booming right now. It states like Florida and Texas and Tennessee and on and on it goes at the huge expense of California and New York. I think that transaling in a pickup steam now that salt is dead. I think there was a hope on the part of many people that your Trump got rid of salt, but and then the Democrats were supposed to bring it back, and then AOC rejected it. It's not coming back. And what that means is that if you're in safe California, for example, you know, with the salt deduction, your effective tax rate was around 8%, not 13.3%. Now it really is 13.3%. That's a huge increase. And the politician in California don't even realize that the tax rate has effectively gone up to the end taxpayer. And and and the quality of life isn't any better. We're not getting anything more for that. And so I think this x is gonna continue Jason Calacanis (00:22:23): -- Chamath Palihapitiya (00:22:23): That's the subtle map that they actually really need to understand. that 500 basis points, you can overcome that if your life is 5% better in enough ways where you're like, it's fine. And the reason why people are leaving is they feel that their life is actually much less than 5% worse Jason Calacanis (00:22:40): -- David Sacks (00:22:40): Right. Jason Calacanis (00:22:41): -- David Sacks (00:22:41): if the trash -- -- doesn't test fight. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:22:43): You know, your your windows are getting smashed in all the time. Safety. Your kids are, you know, depressed and need counseling because of the way that the teachers' unions locked them out of school. You're just like, forget this. I can't do this anymore. Right. Jason Calacanis (00:22:53): You gotta add those two numbers. Yeah. David Sacks (00:22:55): Care here. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:22:56): That's what that's what people really need to appreciate. I don't think it's the actual effective tax rate. But it's the delta of how poor your quality of life has gotten over these last few years relative to the tax you pay. David Sacks (00:23:07): Yeah. I totally totally agree with that. And then one other effect that I think plays into this is the reshoring of American industry, which is not happening in places like California, New York. It's happening in places like Texas Sure. Samsung just announced a Jason Calacanis (00:23:18): $17,000,000,000 David Sacks (00:23:20): investment in a new chip foundry in Texas. Here, I'll post this. And there's a lot of things like this happening. So as we decouple from China and bring our supply chain home Jason Calacanis (00:23:30): -- Let's go. -- David Sacks (00:23:31): that is gonna be a big factor in the rise of the rest. Jason Calacanis (00:23:33): Love it. Love it. And it's David Sacks (00:23:35): great it's great for America because the wealth does need to be more evenly distributed. It can't just go to tech and finance elites in California and New York. Yeah. Jason Calacanis (00:23:44): Alright. I had 2. Disney was my biggest corporate winner for 2022. Disney Plus crushing it. parks raised prices. People wanna go to the parks. Spider Man just had, I think, the number 2 or number 3 all time opening in pandemic, which is crazy. That IP is gonna continue to work for them, John Favreau and David Feiolini. I think is how you pronounce his last name. both crushing it with Mandalorian. Bobafette, one of the great characters from our childhood now is gonna have his own book of Bobafette starting on December 29th. Is that today or tomorrow tomorrow? And so I think Disney is gonna have a huge surge, I think, they're undervalued. But my my number one for this category of biggest business winner for 2022 was millennials in Gen Z. I think that they became completely empowered and independent. They shook off the participation trophies and their entitlement during COVID, they realize that they have skills that are valuable They're sought after. They learned how to make money. They traded crypto. They did stock trading. They're doing shorts, puts, whatever. on Robinhood, and they're just not impressed with people in power, and they increasingly wanna build shit and make money. I think that those 2 generations have woken up think they're gonna be the biggest winners in 2022 because dovetailing with your SMBs, I do think and I'm seeing it across my entire portfolio of companies, you try to hire somebody, and they're like, yeah. But maybe I can just start my David Friedberg (00:25:07): own company. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:25:08): Saks are actually saying a flavor of the same thing, actually. Yeah. Because all these SMBs aren't gonna happen in New York and San Francisco. They're happening all over America. And there are people that are taking empowerment into their own hands. There's tooling for them, and there's opportunity economic opportunity for them to build businesses on their own. and basically just say, you know, after you Jason Calacanis (00:25:26): -- Nothing will build your confidence, so don't show with you, Saks. Nothing builds your confidence like moving from one city to another and having that's a very empowering thing to do. When you're just like, you know what? I'm gonna just leave and go somewhere else. I'll make it myself. So I feel like they are super impressive to me. -- Chamath Palihapitiya (00:25:40): really believe in I really believe in this because the three of us got there in in totally different ways, but I think it's roughly all the same. Jason Calacanis (00:25:45): We might be triangulating around to Trent here. Biggest business looser for 2022 I'll just give it real quick. I think crypto projects that actually don't deliver a product in 2022 are just gonna be loss, I think, this idea that people are gonna bet on things that don't exist in the real world or don't actually have applications is gonna end. It's time for crypto to put up or shut up, and I think the crypto projects that do that, which a number of them are starting to, are gonna store. But it's gonna be a big shake out there. What do you got for biggest business loser in 2022 Friedberg? David Friedberg (00:26:18): I agree with you, actually. That was mine. What? Yeah. Oh, wow. Like I said, crypto bubble will burst. There's a lot of scamming nonsense going on. 90% of these projects Jason Calacanis (00:26:27): -- Okay. -- you David Friedberg (00:26:27): know, are not gonna yield value and fundamentals. And I also think that rising interest rates are gonna affect the crypto market. There's a lot of leverage trades into the crypto assets, those will start to delever as these interest rates shift up. And as a whole, you'll see a large percentage of them go away or decline in value, but a small number will continue to grow in value just like we saw when the .com bubble blew up. There was a number of companies that survived. Most of them did not. And the few that did survive ended up becoming worth ten times what the current market value is. And I think that that's still possible with these crypto projects. But I'd say 90% of them are probably gonna start to blow up next year. Jason Calacanis (00:27:07): What do you got, Chamath? Chamath Palihapitiya (00:27:09): Well, I guess I'm fading you guys I'm also fading implicitly Friedberg's Pick of Stripe, but my biggest business loser for 2022 is Visa and Mass card and traditional payment rails and the entire ecosystem around it. So I think that this is the year you can put on what probably will be the most profitable spread trade of my lifetime, which is to be short these companies and that anybody that basically lives off of this 2 or 3% tax and be long, well thought out web 3 crypto projects that are rebuilding payments infrastructure in a completely decentralized way. Now that doesn't necessarily mean that what you say won't also happen, both that Stripe will have an incredible IPO and that a lot of these Cammie crypto projects will go to 0. However, if you read the white papers of these crypto projects and you systematically put together a framework I think you can be long those and you can be short visa Mastercard because I think this is their peak market cap. Jason Calacanis (00:28:11): And for those of you who don't know, fading and sports betting, taking the opposite side of a bet, taking the opposite team, I guess. David Friedberg (00:28:16): Man, Visa's market cap is half a Jason Calacanis (00:28:18): $1,000,000,000,000. It's incredible. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:28:21): It's a completely contrived duopoly that does need to exist. Jason Calacanis (00:28:24): -- David Friedberg (00:28:24): mean to a young person? And Mastercard's almost $400,000,000,000. So they're a $1,000,000,000,000 combined market. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:28:29): you have to you have to understand that the canary in the coal mine here is pretty significant. The most important thing is Amazon. Earlier this year, Nick, maybe you can post this decided to just shut Visa off in the UK. Jason Calacanis (00:28:41): Oh, yeah. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:28:42): Now Amazon is not going to do something like that in my opinion unless it's a test of what they can do all around the world. And again, going back to this idea of arming the rebels, there really is no need today for all of these small businesses to sit on top of Visa, Mastercard, and Amex rails, it's unnecessary. And so it'll probably get developed in the developing world first. This is why I think focusing in markets like Nigeria to me are way more exciting than talking about Right. You know, these fading Western European countries, who cares? Right. This is where this stuff will happen. it's not to say that those those other companies can't, you know, trundle along for a while, but when I say, you know, we'll look back in 10 years and their market caps will be materially lower. Anybody in those traditional infrastructure in rails versus any in this new infrastructure rails will be it will look like a no brainer. David Friedberg (00:29:39): Do you consider the buy now pay later companies like a firm and Upstart or whatever? I don't know if starts fits in that category, but somebody's buy now pay later businesses as being the alternative to the traditional payment networks, or do you think that it's a different business? Chamath Palihapitiya (00:29:51): No. I right now, I think what what buy now pay later is is is a rate arbitrage. David Friedberg (00:29:56): Right. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:29:57): When as you said earlier, rates are very, very low, so the cost of capital is low. But it again starts to habituate the consumer experience to, I don't need to pay these users' rates to these 3 credit card companies to facilitate a transaction. of money that I already have or money that I'm good for. That's the big idea. Right? And so when you translate that into web 3 in a good project or a good series of projects, you're not gonna need these companies. And so it's going to, I think, eviscerate Jason Calacanis (00:30:24): 1,000,000,000,000 Chamath Palihapitiya (00:30:25): of dollars of market capital. Jason Calacanis (00:30:26): -- Chamath Palihapitiya (00:30:26): you also have Jason Calacanis (00:30:27): in between these two, Venmo and Cash App which are not crypto, but they certainly as brands mean more David Friedberg (00:30:33): to young people. Like, do Jason Calacanis (00:30:34): you think do you think -- -- and Mastercard. David Friedberg (00:30:35): Yeah. Do you think block used to be called Square is a good paired rate against Visa Mastercard in this context? Jason Calacanis (00:30:41): Yeah. I like it. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:30:42): You know, I think that that that starts to get closer to to the truth. My my perspective is you can kind of short anybody who's public because anybody who's public can really only be public or will go public because they feast off of this artificial 2 or 3 percent transaction fee. Everybody does. The companies you wanna be long are those private companies in crypto that you can read the white papers of whose protocols have utility, and who's building some element of infrastructure that replaces a traditional business. So As long as you can kind of build those things up, Balaji, for example, had a bunch of tweets this weekend where he was like, you know, I he has this idea for a mirror table. What is that? That replaces know, cap table management. Right? Now why is that important? Well, it because it touches all of these really important KYC, AML, investing laws across all these countries, in all of these places. It's just a very simple example. of where the new company that actually builds that capability of these mirror tables will do so at virtually no cost. And so it'll have a fifty person team. And so they're not gonna have offices all over the world. Their cost basis will be, you know, an or or order or 2 orders of magnitude. Jason Calacanis (00:31:57): Oh, shit. Let's base it. Visa, Master became attacks. It took them decades and decades to have that power over folks. And and they -- But I think Affirm does break that. Affirm breaks it because -- Yeah. -- the people who are selling then decide, you know what? We'll give a little bit of a discount here to get more people to buy. Go ahead. David Friedberg (00:32:13): They they were the classic network monopoly network effect monopoly business. Right? Like, they got the small businesses. They got the credit cards and by extension, the consumers on the network. And, ultimately, they created these these absolutely locked in networks But as with all networks complacency kind of, you know, drives innovation and this field innovation that we're seeing is now starting to figure out ways to not just cracked their way into the network, but to replace them with an entirely different model. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:32:39): The last point on this, this is not one where I think this disruption happens slow. I think it happens swiftly. Swiftly being 5 to 10 years? No. Like in David Friedberg (00:32:48): a year. Yeah. Shamass point is really interesting because there's there are several billion people globally who do not have credit and who are unbanked. And so if you think about where this is more likely to come from, it's more likely to from an innovative model in those markets that then ultimately finds its way into the developed world versus, you know, trying to break apart Visa and Mastercard and go get these small businesses to switch out of them and so on today. So it's it's a really interesting Jason Calacanis (00:33:15): -- Okay. Sachs. What do you got? I don't David Sacks (00:33:16): know if it's biggest loser, but the thing I'm most worried about is in Jason Calacanis (00:33:19): 2022, David Sacks (00:33:20): the Fed is gonna stop quantitative easing or so they have said they are I guess March will be the last month in which they do this QE. So starting in April, there won't be any of this liquidity pumped into the system. And so I think the the losers are gonna be any of these asset classes that are heavily dependent on or have benefited from all this excess liquidity sloshing through the system. It's true that the stock market, I think, has already priced in rate increases and an increase in the discount rate I don't know if markets can fully price in reduction in liquidity. We don't know exactly what that's gonna look like. And so if liquidity is reduced next year. I think that could reverberate through a bunch of markets, including, you know, everything from sports cards, you know, and collectibles, which have gone through the roof, to art, to crypto, to, you know, maybe some growth stocks and on and on it goes. So that's my biggest worry is what happens when the Fed stops QEE and Jason Calacanis (00:34:24): The biggest loser is Mark. It's because of quantity -- The David Sacks (00:34:27): markets that have to get off drugs, basically. Jason Calacanis (00:34:30): Okay. Most contrarian belief, Saks what lost your Muscatraer and belief since I'm sure that you workshop this with the contrarian peer tale himself. It never ends. David Sacks (00:34:40): Yeah. I mean, so I well, I have a couple of them here actually. Jason Calacanis (00:34:43): You wanna wait and go after everybody else? David Sacks (00:34:45): Sure. Yeah. Go ahead. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:34:46): I don't even know if this is contrarian or just unconventional, but I think that all of this pressure in on the progressive left will manifest in the chosen one AOC deciding to step up and run against Schumer in the primary in June of Jason Calacanis (00:35:06): 2022. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:35:08): and she will lose. Wow. David Sacks (00:35:11): That's a good prediction. David Friedberg (00:35:12): I like Shamat's prediction. Jason Calacanis (00:35:13): That's a bold one. Yeah. That she would lose Chamath Palihapitiya (00:35:15): is bold. Well, what? Sorry. Just to give a little bit of color on this, let let's just assume that she doesn't. Right? And and, you know, she shouldn't. But let think about where she's sitting. Buildback better is over. There's an enormous amount of stuff happening right now where, you know, it looks like the progressive left is really gonna be put under pressure. and it's almost as if if she's really going to be the standard bearer and she needs to do something quickly. Otherwise, she's gonna have to wait until she's 38 you know, she's, you know, another 6 years from now because it's not unlikely that she's gonna run against Kristen Kirsten Gillibrand. So this is kind of like it may be a moment where out of her sheer frustration she steps up. And then we will see whether Friedberg is right or I'm right, whether populism is really around the left or the populism is really around the silent majority. Jason Calacanis (00:36:04): What do you got? Sex. David Sacks (00:36:06): I think it's I think it's a very good prediction. In a in a similar a I predict that there will be a strange new respect for Bill Clinton in the Democratic Party by the end of next year. Why? Because after the Red Wave, there'll be a recognition that they need to move towards the center, they need to triangulate. And and Clinton was the one who provided the formula for doing this. He dragged the Democratic party back to the center after they were losing elections. And the other piece of this is gonna be that it's already the case in polling that Hispanics and Asian Americans now are swing voters. And I think you're gonna see in November 2022 that they go for Republicans in big numbers. And so the idea that the democratic party can just coast to election based on demographics. I think that theory is gonna be imperiled. Yeah. I like it. And so they're gonna be looking to to Clinton and maybe not so much Obama as the as sort of the predicate they should be, you know, aspiring to in the I Jason Calacanis (00:37:03): think what's important about that is those groups of people, I think, are offended by the free money, get something for nothing. They're hardworking immigrant people who have pride. They don't want hand And then you have this left white liberal maniac saying, no. No. You're poor. You need handouts. You don't you shouldn't work. You need handouts. You're You know? And I just think they don't buy it. And that's why I think they're gonna go to the Republicans because Republicans are hardworking and freedom loving. David Sacks (00:37:27): And what was Clinton's big tagline in his campaign, he he said that he supports people who work hard and play by the rules. That was the so Jason Calacanis (00:37:35): -- Great tagline. -- David Sacks (00:37:36): messaged the Democrats gotta refine. Right now, they'd seem to be on the side of basically drug addicts. I mean, you know, people who -- Junkies. Jason Calacanis (00:37:43): -- David Sacks (00:37:43): are contributing nothing and pitching tents in the middle of public spaces and, you know, participating in open air drug markets. Jason Calacanis (00:37:49): Yeah. What do you got to say, Brett? -- Chamath Palihapitiya (00:37:50): and sore losers. Don't forget sore losers. Jason Calacanis (00:37:52): Yeah. and hysterical. Friedberg and Chamath Palihapitiya (00:37:55): hysterical people. Jason Calacanis (00:37:56): I mean, being hysterical, just never go look. David Friedberg (00:37:58): If you'll bear with me, I have I have 3, but I I couldn't really pick. So the first one is, I think and I shared this on the pod the other day. I think we'll see the start of great global conflict. We we often rationalize the series of events that that catalyze conflict after the fact. rather than recognizing that there was emotional conditioning that allowed it to arise in the first place, I think we're in a state today where the conditioning is such that we're more inclined to engage in conflict globally than we have been in a very long time. I don't know if it's kind of the conflict meter or what have you. But, you know, you could see proxy wars and and proxy conflicts that arise sort of like what we're seeing, you know, maybe some in in the Ukraine, maybe something related to Taiwan. But this is primarily predicated by the fact that we've got kind of this inflationary environment, and the rise of populism will force the kind of domestic policymakers and legislators to say we should do something that's active and something that will allow us to unite our nations to go and get into a conflict somewhere or more likely to do that than not. And so I would say that the conditioning is there to to see something like that happen. And so we're not kind of thinking, hey. Netgear is gonna be a year of war And that's why it's contrary. And I I think that there may be war that that we're not kind of paying attention to today or that will surprise us after the fact. The second thing is I'd say China may solidify its position next year, and this is gonna sound a little crazy as a leader in climate change mitigation. whereas it's historically been considered kind of the primary foe against climate change. And there's a couple of behaviors we've seen come China recently that I think number 1, remember China is a very rational actor. David Friedberg (00:39:49): They they do analysis. They make decisions based on long term investments and thinking. They recently announced that they're gonna build a 115 new nuclear reactors over the next 15 years at a cost of roughly Jason Calacanis (00:39:59): $450,000,000,000. David Friedberg (00:40:00): That's about $3,000,000,000 per nuclear power plant. The US is currently spending $30,000,000,000 building 2 power plants in Georgia. So the Chinese have figured it out. They've also publicly declared that they're gonna be completely carbon neutral with their economy by the year 2060. And they're making the investments through these nuclear power plants to demonstrate that they're actually on the road to do that. And there are a number of other infrastructure initiatives that are meant to help them achieve significant reductions in in carbon by by 2040. So so let me just point out why this is important because right now, everyone thinks China is the foe. They're causing climate change. They're the biggest problem. Imagine if over the next year, some of what they're doing pays off, and everyone says, my gosh. China is leading the world in climate change mitigation, their influence socially and politically will rise. And this this gives China a very strong kind of position you know, on a global stage and with with kind of people around the world thinking, instead of China being a foe, maybe they're the leader and the US is the laggard. And that creates a and my my third is very random, which is some sort of natural catastrophe. We we never account as you know, all natural catastrophes are very low probability, but very high severity. If you multiply the probability by the severity, you have what's called the expected loss. We always undervalue the expected loss of massive catastrophes, natural catastrophes. We haven't had one in a while. it's a very low probability bet for me to say, hey. Maybe we will. But if we do, it's certainly underappreciated in markets today. And so when these kind of, you know, Black Swan type events occur. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:41:34): Did you did you watch Don't Look Up on Netflix? Is that why you're -- No. Jason Calacanis (00:41:37): What is that? It's a new movie about a -- It's David Friedberg (00:41:40): crap. Don't watch it. Jason Calacanis (00:41:41): It's it's polarizing. Let's leave it out for now. Okay. I'm not a pleasure. David Friedberg (00:41:46): I'll watch it. Scrap. Jason Calacanis (00:41:47): My most contrarian belief is I think this is contrarian. is that American influence and exceptional exceptionalism is going to soar. Oh, David Friedberg (00:41:56): that is contrarian. Jason Calacanis (00:41:58): I think we've empowered this next generation. As I talked about earlier, millennials Gen Z are ready to be independent to build shit. And I think Jen X is gonna start taking over from Boomers as is what's happening in this very podcast here as we start to hit Chamath Palihapitiya (00:42:12): a week and a Jason Calacanis (00:42:13): half years as executives. And then all these boomers are retiring as Chamath has pointed out over and over again, and they're gonna pass down their wealth, which then creates a perfect storm. of a ton of capital, a ton of energy, lots of new ideas, a different perspective. What are what are we? -- economy is gonna boom, and we will prove once again that we're the great country, and economy in the world. Jake, you're not you're David Friedberg (00:42:33): not a contrarian. You're what we call an optimist. Jason Calacanis (00:42:36): Yeah. Okay. And then I'll add to that. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:42:37): Jake, how what are we? Are we gen x? Jason Calacanis (00:42:40): We're gen x. Yes. And the fighting over COVID abortion guns, social justice, and all this stuff is so exhausting, not that these are not important issues. that I think everybody is gonna move to let's just start respecting and building and solving problems. And I just think American Exceptionalism will be -- All that happens in 2022. Wow. I just think that that is my contrarian belief for 2022. Everybody believes it's all -- -- primary race. Yep. You would I think everybody believes it's coming apart. I don't think anybody's coming apart. I think David Friedberg (00:43:09): it's gonna be a great year. Jason Calacanis (00:43:10): -- in a year. I think it's gonna be a great year. I think it's gonna be a great year. David Sacks (00:43:14): Can I give my second contrarian prediction? Jason Calacanis (00:43:16): Oh, god. Here we go. Yes. David Sacks (00:43:17): Okay. I think I was gonna Jason Calacanis (00:43:18): say it's good. I wanna hear it. David Sacks (00:43:19): Here here it is. I think the media is gonna the media is gonna pull a total 180 on COVID. Okay? So after pumping out COVID fear porn for 2 years, you're gonna change their tune next year. Some of the things you're gonna hear, we need to live with COVID. It can't be eradicated. They're even gonna say it's it's more like a cold or a flu. They're gonna say that politicians can't be expected to stop it. They're gonna memory hole their support for lockdowns. We never supported that. And why is all of this? Because We have an election next year, and more Americans have already died from COVID under Joe Biden than Donald Trump. That's a pretty basic stuff. -- memory hold? Jason Calacanis (00:43:57): What was your term? Yeah. David Sacks (00:43:58): You've even heard of the term memory hold. It's what the press does. Jason Calacanis (00:44:01): -- whole. I mean, it's a whole memory hole. Got it. David Sacks (00:44:03): Okay. But did you guys know that that more Americans have already died from COVID under Joe Biden than with Donald Trump? That's insane. Yeah. It is stunning. Jason Calacanis (00:44:10): Are you sure? David Sacks (00:44:11): Yeah. 100%. Now Jason Calacanis (00:44:13): -- David Friedberg (00:44:13): His writers cup triple fact checked it. Jason Calacanis (00:44:15): Yeah. They did. They did. No. David Sacks (00:44:16): Look look it up. And it's certainly it's be even more true Jason Calacanis (00:44:20): after this. -- info wars.com. You can look it up. David Sacks (00:44:21): I'm a Cron Wave. Now look. I don't blame Joe Biden for that. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:44:26): Sorry. Wait. Why is that? Because Trump had no vaccine, and Biden has had vaccines and everything else. Jason Calacanis (00:44:31): And maybe it's a consistency of -- I mean, David Friedberg (00:44:32): you guys seem to have a consistent, you know, 1 to 2000 people die a day. Jason Calacanis (00:44:36): Let's say 14 100 a day, so maybe it's just that consistency. David Friedberg (00:44:39): In the US. Yeah. Jason Calacanis (00:44:40): I think it's because of the Republican states that refuse to do any mitigation. David Friedberg (00:44:45): Okay. Let's keep going. David Sacks (00:44:47): like, I don't blame Biden for that. I don't blame any president of the United States. Nonetheless, Biden campaigned on the idea of these quote unquote shutting down the virus. He he and the Democrats claim to that they would be able to eradicate it. That was the entire basis for all these COVID restrictions. Now it's it's the case that it can't be done. Everyone's realizing that. They're gonna have to move the goalpost, a memory hole, ever saying that. And so the Democrats desperately need COVID to be over for the 2022 midterms. Therefore, the media will say it's over. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:45:20): Well, you started to see it already because the media is probably scratching their head. They were the ones trying to force these lockdowns, you know, basking in the glow of whatever press release the the Centers for Disease Control would put out. And all of a sudden, the CDC just had to do a complete 180 And when they used to force 10 day warranties for these positive tests and people with COVID, they just backtrack to 5. And why? Well, it's because there's nobody to work. Jason Calacanis (00:45:46): And a Delta CEO asked for it last week, and now they're I I don't know if that's exactly true, Chamath Palihapitiya (00:45:50): but he's saying that. -- ultimately really just in the hands of big business. And so when big business needs these workers to come back, you know, they and it probably pissed off a lot of unions who would have loved to have just had a positive test and stay home forever the teacher's unions particularly. Here we are. So -- Right. -- this is a really tough situation. David Sacks (00:46:06): Well and look. And to be clear, the message that the media is gonna deliver about COVID next year, it'll be the first time I agree with it. But it's completely dishonest to them to pretend like they were never in favor of lockdowns and they completely inflated the threat and created this whole hysteria. And next year, they're gonna have to back off it. Jason Calacanis (00:46:25): But also take into account -- -- politician can end it. -- to account sacks that this new variant is much less deadly So it would be logical for people to take a less severe vacation on it. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:46:35): No. Hold on, Jason. We don't know whether there are more variants to come in the future that could be much worse. we also just want this to be subsequently needed. So the way it is Jason Calacanis (00:46:43): -- Chamath Palihapitiya (00:46:43): The CDC makes a decision broadly speaking about everything. They're not making a decision about omicron. They didn't if you have Omicron because not only is it they really even test Jason Calacanis (00:46:52): for it. I'm just talking to people who Chamath Palihapitiya (00:46:54): The reason they shortened this is because they didn't know what they were doing before. They don't fundamentally know what they're doing now. They're making best guesses, and the problem with these best guesses is that they're inaccurate and it forces enormous amounts of waves of havoc every time they make a decision. Jason Calacanis (00:47:10): -- what I'm talking about. I'm talking about the Saksis prediction that the media will flip. a logical person, including everybody on this call, because of Omicron taking over for Delta and being a natural blocker, it would be the logical thing to do. So in defense of the media, which I'm not app to do, it's logical for everybody to take a different approach right now because Omicron is forty times more contagious. It blocks Delta, and it's become the dominant variant. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:47:32): I think that right now, the media is confused. They're not sure which way to go. So, you know, there's a high probability that they tack towards what Saks is saying. But if you read the New York Times article, It was through gritted teeth. They presented the fact that the CDC changed the guidelines. If you read that article, it was like pulling teeth David Friedberg (00:47:47): The media is confused. -- media. Can can you just define that a little bit? David Sacks (00:47:51): It's everybody about Fox News. Come on. It's the elite prestige media. It's the New York Times, the Washington post, CNN, MSNBC, on and on and on. David Friedberg (00:48:00): Do you think there's a bigger audience with the aggregate of those publications you just mentioned? or the direct to the consumer publications that are happening on YouTube that hot topic. Jason Calacanis (00:48:10): -- David Sacks (00:48:10): disaggregated because of their dishonesty. David Friedberg (00:48:12): So does it matter? David Sacks (00:48:13): Yeah. Of course, it still matters because they still have a lot of influence. They do. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:48:17): And no offense to everybody on YouTube, but we haven't gotten yet to the economic viability where enough people on YouTube can cover the broad spectrum of things that are important and then the mechanisms and incentives to amplify it. So for example Jason Calacanis (00:48:29): -- David Friedberg (00:48:29): That's a good point. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:48:30): we still need CNN. There was a woman on CNN. Nick, please post the clip that you could we posted in the group chat talking about the incidence of suicide rates and depression in their children and what happened when they were locked out of school for 2 years. Okay? And I am not going to stop talking about this. because this is the issue of our times. These are our kids. Speaker 5 (00:48:51): Well, I wanna get to underreported stories as well. Jan? Oh, for me, I mean, my kids hear me rant about this every day, so I may as well tell you guys. It's it's the crushing impact that our COVID policies have had on young kids and children. by far, you know, the least serious risk for serious illness. But, I mean, even teenagers. you know, a healthy teenager has a 1 and a million chance of getting and and dying from COVID, which is way lower than dying in a car wreck on a road trip, but they have suffered and sacrificed the most, especially kids and underrepresented at risk communities. And now we have the surgeon general saying there's a mental health crisis Jason Calacanis (00:49:33): -- Mhmm. -- Speaker 5 (00:49:33): among our kids. The risk of suicide girl suicide attempts among girls now up 51% this year. Black kids nearly twice as likely as as white kids to die by suicide. I mean, school closures, lockdowns, cancellation of sports. You couldn't even go on a playground in the DC area. without cops scurrying getting chewing the kids off. Tremendous negative impact on kids, and it's been an afterthought. You know, it's it's it's hurt their dreams, their future, learning loss, risk of abuse, their mental health. And now with our knowledge, our vaccines If our policies don't reflect a more measured and reasonable approach for our children, they will be paying for our generation's decisions the rest of their lives. And that to me is the greatest underreported story of the past year. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:50:26): And I don't see it being talked about anywhere. We talked about it first. You know, I posted that link about the decrease in IQ points. Jason Calacanis (00:50:33): Yep. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:50:33): And then we started to talk about it there slowly. And now it's trickling into the mainstream media where they're forced to talk about Jason Calacanis (00:50:38): it. -- impacted. It's not rich kids. It's it's all of our kids. That was David Sacks (00:50:42): a fantastic clip. That CNN clip was fantastic. Jason Calacanis (00:50:45): -- are the ones who are are the ones who get hit the hardest. They can't do supplemental. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:50:49): They don't have that option. Don't don't minimize what this is. This is every child. Yes. It is. But portion gets hit. Yes. It it it the the data was that it's disproportionately affecting minority kids. Okay? And that could be because of the sociology of the parents. But, Jason, You can also have Jason Calacanis (00:51:04): 3 Chamath Palihapitiya (00:51:04): colored parents. Okay, Jay? Jason Calacanis (00:51:06): I'm not just saying color parents. I'm saying all poor kids, white poor kids who are public school. Poor kids. They're getting hit Chamath Palihapitiya (00:51:11): the hardest kids of all kinds. But frankly, the point is it's all kids of all kinds. Okay? So we don't need to subsegment this to make this issue go away and seem smaller than it is. We have literally put tens of millions of children -- Yes. Jason Calacanis (00:51:24): -- Chamath Palihapitiya (00:51:24): at risk because of our behavior. Jason Calacanis (00:51:26): Yes. I agree with you, Ed. I'm trying to minimize it or make it a smaller issue. David Friedberg (00:51:30): Your point is that none of the smaller audiences or smaller new media folks on YouTube or their podcasting have enough breadth to really make an impact by talking about this topic. Is that what you're saying? That the mainstream media is needed to hit the broad base Chamath Palihapitiya (00:51:45): No. What I'm saying is very specific. The people on YouTube cover what the people on YouTube want. Okay. The people on podcasts cover what they want. They're all very narrow specialists. David Friedberg (00:51:55): They're row niche. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:51:56): Okay. Yeah. There is no set of incentives that then threads that together and then amplifies. David Friedberg (00:52:02): In Chamath Palihapitiya (00:52:02): in the absence of those 2 mechanics, Those are software mechanics and economic mechanics that need to get built in. What we'd lose is signal. Right. That, in my opinion, right now, over the last 2 weeks, is the single most important signal, and it is nowhere except for this one clip on CNN and the discussion that we had 2 weeks ago. David Friedberg (00:52:21): Because the YouTube I I just wanna be really clear on this because Chamath Palihapitiya (00:52:24): the YouTube -- -- is full of react videos Jason Calacanis (00:52:26): -- Right. -- Chamath Palihapitiya (00:52:26): and video games, which is fine -- And the consumer Jason Calacanis (00:52:29): -- -- David Friedberg (00:52:29): missing -- Yeah. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:52:31): is talking about this issue and actually holding people accountable. And who's who should be held accountable? In every single county, where it was basically a board of education that was trying to shut these kids out, who stood up and who told that story, nobody did. And if it was trying to be told, it wasn't amplified correctly enough. And so what happens is after 2 years of damage to all of our kids, tens of millions of kids There's a couple of fissures. One fissure was on this podcast, which I'm very proud of. Another fissure was this one few minute clip on CNN. CBS. It was a CBS -- Whatever. Jason Calacanis (00:53:05): -- was a Sunday show. Yeah. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:53:07): But my point is these are the things that really matter, and we haven't figured it out yet. David Friedberg (00:53:10): What you're saying and I think it's a really important point, is as a YouTuber as a podcaster, you pick your niche that you can hit home on, and you hit home over and over every week. But no one says I'm gonna broadly talk about the issues of our time and make sure -- No. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:53:25): No. That's not true. We do. Jason Calacanis (00:53:27): We do. But it's a small subset, but I think the bigger picture here Chamath Palihapitiya (00:53:30): is another listen back more than a million people a week that listen to this, we've we far exceeded MSNBC's average viewership. We're probably gonna pass you know, most CNBC shows and some CNN shows by the end of next year, so we will do it. But there's not enough. There needs to be more of us. David Friedberg (00:53:47): We're an opinion show as much you know, we're not a a traditional reporting show, right, in the sense that, like, go out, gather data and facts and present them, or do you disagree with that? Jason Calacanis (00:53:55): Not that they do that anyway. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:53:56): I disagree with disagree. I have to think we do a decent job of filtering for the truth. And the reason we're able to do that is because of our friendship, we can hold each other accountable and call out the bullshit when we see -- And because we don't have incentives. David Friedberg (00:54:07): We don't have anything to lose. Right? Jason Calacanis (00:54:08): I don't think there's -- What Chamath Palihapitiya (00:54:09): is there for us? Jason Calacanis (00:54:10): But I wanna build on something that Saks said. it is very hard for the media to hold this dissonance because they're saying everybody needs to shelter in place. COVID is, you know, this huge thing. They put the death count they they put the case counter up. They won't talk about debts in ICU. They won't talk about who's getting COVID because they have an incentive to get more ratings through COVID or Trump, and they took that And then it's a narrative violation or it's cognitive dissonance, if they say, at the same time, everybody needs to shelter in place. This thing is really deadly but we should send our kids to school. So they couldn't take that position, Sachs and Tremont. They couldn't take the position that, oh, well, kids could go to school because that would go against hey, everybody needs to shelter in place. And they picked, I think, COVID is the super deadly thing. Everybody has to shelter in place. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:54:55): over children. giving them way too much credit. I think what happened was they had a position to re aggregate lost power. and they took it. That's real standard. Jason Calacanis (00:55:07): -- Chamath Palihapitiya (00:55:07): did not think about the true consequences. And it may not have happened at any one individual reporter level. But when it ladders up to the editorial board and the decisions of the people who run the mass heads of these organizations, they made the decision that courying and organizing power was more important than shining a light to do the right thing. Specifically, in this case, the thing that aggravates me the most is around our kids. Yeah. Jason Calacanis (00:55:31): I think they were going for ratings. But, anyway, we can keep debating it. David Sacks (00:55:34): Well, the one thing we can say for sure is they created a hysteria whether they're motivated was ratings or a power grab or political advantage. There's probably all the above, but the bottom line is they wanted to create a hysteria. And they've been pumping COVID fear porn into the population for the last 2 years. But my prediction, like I said, is that it all flips next year. Why? there's an election. And the way the media figures out what it's gonna what its narrative is gonna be is they start with the election result they want. And then they reverse engineer the narrative that they think is gonna help achieve that election result. And if it means contracting what they said yesterday, They will memory hole what they said yesterday in order to get onboard the new narrative. That is what's gonna happen. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:56:17): I do think you're right, but I think I just I wanna I don't wanna lose this thread because This has nothing to do with COVID, meaning COVID was a symptom of this. But if you really thought that the organized mainstream media had the right to be you know, has a has a purpose to be on the right side of justice. Where were they when when school boards were stripping out, you know, advanced placement programs for kids? Or where were they when they were shutting kids out Where were they when they were engaged in 8 hour debates? Jason Calacanis (00:56:46): They can't go against Chamath Palihapitiya (00:56:47): all of us. You know, a a male can be on a committee, you know, because he's gay, but he's not, you know, black. I mean these were the issues that stopped our children from literally walking into the classroom every day. Jason Calacanis (00:57:01): Well, I mean, they just Chamath Palihapitiya (00:57:02): couldn't -- -- stories were not told, and they didn't happen just in one place. They happened all across the country. And this is where those folks had a responsibility because they also probably had kids, and they didn't do a thing about it. That one issue for me really drives me crazy. Jason Calacanis (00:57:17): Let let me a probing question here. We assume we're gonna get out of this, you know, pandemic in 2022, knock on wood, no more variants. What is the obligation and technique, the strategy to solve what we did to these kids? just wanna put it out there. We don't have to answer it now, but I think we could spend an episode. That's a very David Friedberg (00:57:36): difficult question, Jake Howell, that I think you need Sorry. So sociologists and psychologists, educators. Jason Calacanis (00:57:42): We also need entrepreneurship and ideas, and we need to have a dialogue so we can bring them on. But if we're gonna spend all this money on build back better, how about we build the 20 lost fucking IQ points that these kids have, and then we do something about the depression and anxiety they have. Hallelujah. David Sacks (00:57:54): Jason, we're never gonna get there because the teachers' unions won't even knowledge that learning loss exists. The leaders -- We Jason Calacanis (00:58:00): need to break the teachers' unions, period David Sacks (00:58:02): full stop. So let me make a prediction in that regard next year. There's gonna be a ballot initiative in California to for school choice. And the way it's gonna work is that I think there's something like $13,000 spent per pupil in California. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:58:17): That's right. That's the David Sacks (00:58:18): right number. There's gonna be a ballot initiative that says that any parent who wants to send their kid to an accredited school can get a voucher for $13,000 from the state. That's just to Jason Calacanis (00:58:28): be on the ballot. I predict it -- Let's go. David Sacks (00:58:30): I predict it will be the big big election in California, and maybe the nation next year, and I think more than a 100,000,000 will be spent on both sides of that thing. And I I can't predict it's gonna win. I hope it does. Jason Calacanis (00:58:41): This is a topic worth fighting over. this is something important to fight over. Yes. It's school choice because you know what? Absolutely. These guys pulled the wool over every size. They slipped them the Mickey. They hoodwink them. you need choice. We know this as entrepreneurs. If there is no competition, things do not get better. The school unions are complacent. David Sacks (00:59:01): let's make a resolution. Let's make a New Year's resolution because I think we all agree on this. I got approached about this ballot initiative. Jason Calacanis (00:59:08): Let's do it. David Sacks (00:59:09): It's it's gonna happen. There's gonna be, like I said, a major bound initiative next year for school, choice in California. Jason Calacanis (00:59:15): Let's all -- Let's take some wall and sum it money and put it into that. David Sacks (00:59:17): Let's get behind it. Jason Calacanis (00:59:18): All in summit profits will put towards this. David Sacks (00:59:21): Yes. Let's do it. Jason Calacanis (00:59:22): Let's pull I I'm in. I'm in. Let's put some money behind this. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:59:25): I wanna tell you just to more personalize this issue because I really think a lot of people listening struggle with this. I entered the pandemic with rules I had rules about devices. I had rules about you know how much time they could be online. I had rules around physical fitness. Right? I had rules around diet. and it all went out the window. And it became this thing where it was like feed them the best they can Sometimes they eat lunch with us, sometimes they have to eat lunch by themselves because I'm stuck on some stupid Zoom back to back in these dumb meetings because these kids aren't at school. Their only way to interact with their friends became video games like Fortnite where they could at least talk to their friends. Jason Calacanis (01:00:09): Yep. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:00:09): But then it became an addiction where they were doing for hours and hours. Yep. And now I'm trying to and, you know, they gained weight because they weren't physically active. And I am trying to unwind as is Matt, as is my ex wife, we're doing it together as a team. It is so hard. Totally hard. So hard. What about all these people who don't have the access to the resources that I have to try to unwind this? And then what happens is I send my kids to the school, And, oh, they may have a headache. Guess what? They get sent home, and then their brother and sister have to get sent home too until you can test and be COVID negative for a day in a row. And so there's yet another day of school loss. David Friedberg (01:00:47): Totally nuts. We're we're Chamath Palihapitiya (01:00:48): and it's like, this is supposed to be one of the best schools in the country. It's not. Jason Calacanis (01:00:52): Totally enough. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:00:52): What is every other school like then if this is what I if this is what, Jason Calacanis (01:00:56): you know, Chamath Palihapitiya (01:00:56): my my children have to do. Jason Calacanis (01:00:57): I think we should make this we should have this as a major theme for 2022 for the pod think it's a very Chamath Palihapitiya (01:01:01): important job. Jason Calacanis (01:01:03): -- Chamath Palihapitiya (01:01:03): educators and teachers unions accountable. Absolutely. School boards accountable all around the country to fix this. This is your responsibility you need to fix it. Jason Calacanis (01:01:12): Listen. We held police officers responsible in the last year or 2. We've seen this, you know, policing being really like a spotlight put on it. Well, let's put that same spotlight on teachers and administrators and schools. David Sacks (01:01:24): They'll never do it. They'll never do it without competition. You that's the only way to hold that's the only way to hold their feet Jason Calacanis (01:01:29): to fire. You know what? What I learned Tremov to build on what you said was I just decided to get a teacher. And and, obviously, I have the means to do it. It's I know most people don't. I certainly didn't have it growing up. We could barely you know, afford to exist. But I think homeschooling is a viable option. So with that 13 k, I can tell you 5 parents who are in an underprivileged area can take that five times to 13 and take that's, what is that, 65k? and put it together. And for 65 k, they can hire a teacher, and they can do a better job with those parents and a teacher for those 5 kids. I guarantee it. So let's go to best performing asset of 2022. What do you got your money? Chamath Palihapitiya (01:02:12): This is simple. This will be battery metals, lithium, nickel, cobalt -- Okay. -- graphite, Jason Calacanis (01:02:20): put Chamath Palihapitiya (01:02:20): them in a basket. You can be along these things, and I Jason Calacanis (01:02:22): think you're gonna -- Rapid fire sacks, what do you that's performing excellent. David Sacks (01:02:25): I just said series a venture because it's pretty unoriginal. It's what I do. I think growth got a little bit overfunded and overheated, and I think the seed stage also. There's, like, so there were so many new seed investors. Again, it might have been partially because of excess liquidity. So series a is still the choke point, and I think it's still the best area to invest in. Innovation's not gonna stop, but it's gonna be great series a investments next year. Jason Calacanis (01:02:49): I also picked early stage startups because that's where the magic happens. I picked early stage, like, right before series a. I think, spacking, direct listings, raising money, people coming down to do the Series Bs, all of that is creating a pull. for more startups, and the founders are getting very sophisticated in terms of finding product market fit and scaling globally. you know, earlier, and that's what's creating these great big outcomes, whether it's Uber or Facebook both figuring and or Airbnb had to go global quickly. So my choice for best performing asset of 2022 is still early stage startups. FreeBird got. David Friedberg (01:03:30): obviously, best performing asset in terms of a multiples basis, you're never gonna beat seed stage investing, certainly. But, you know, I tried to highlight and continue my kind of contrarian bet that we're gonna see increased global conflict next year, again, driven by, you know, incumbents trying to hold on to political office and increase inflation and fueling economic growth and the American response to China. So in a world of increased global conflict, I think assets that do really well are energy commodities and energy stocks. I recently made a big bet on energy stocks, defense stocks. And it used to be a gold. It could be the case that Bitcoin, you know, sees a role as being a defensive position and portfolios in a world of of war and conflict. So those are my kind of macro games for for asset. Jason Calacanis (01:04:19): Most anticipated trend of 2022. Woody got you off, a trend you're anticipating in 2022. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:04:25): peer to peer payments. the destruction of traditional rails, it will come out of Africa. Jason Calacanis (01:04:31): Great. Sacks, what do you got? David Sacks (01:04:33): This is where I had the civil war between and programmatic Liberals. So building on what Chamath said, you're already seeing this in the feud between London, Britain, Chase of Boudin. That is really gonna, I think, blossom. next year. We have not heard the last of that. You saw it in Philadelphia where the mayor, Michael Nutter, took on Larry Krasner, I think you're gonna see it in New York City between Eric Adams and these Manhattan elites. And you also saw it in Washington DC where the progressives were blaming mansion for, you know, the losing the build back better. So this is a divorce gonna continue and what Shamov predicted with AOC versus Schumer would would certainly play into that. So it's grab the popcorn. It is the the trend I'm anticipating the most. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:05:18): Alright. There you go. Jason Calacanis (01:05:19): Do you anticipate a similar trend with, like, the outright Trumpians and DeSantis and that kind of thing breaking up? How do you see that playing out? David Sacks (01:05:27): Not not yet because Trump isn't on the ballot in 2022. So I actually think the Republican Party is gonna be surprisingly united in 2022. I think where the trouble might come in is when we have a Republican primary in Jason Calacanis (01:05:39): 2023. David Sacks (01:05:40): And especially if Trump runs, then, you know, all hell's gonna break loose. So Jason Calacanis (01:05:45): Who is it? Who are the two people who would be most viable against Trump in that 2020 23 Ron DeSantis and Ted Cruz? Chamath Palihapitiya (01:05:52): Vicky Haley. Vicky Hallum? Jason Calacanis (01:05:54): That's gonna be that's gonna be fireworks. Friedberg, what do you got? Anticipated trend? David Friedberg (01:05:58): My biggest anticipated trend for 2022 is gonna be a Goldrush in biotech into what I think will become the cover story on magazines throughout the year that humans have discovered the fountain of youth. And this will arise from these investments in what are called yaminaka factor based cell reprogramming methods. I've talked about this on the pod in the past a few years ago. scientists identified that 4 chemicals could trigger gene expression in cells and get those cells to effectively revert to being stem cells. and more recently demonstrated that using lower amounts of those chemicals and other what are called kind of epigenetic epigenetic factors, can trigger partial cell reprogramming, which causes cells in the body to act youthful. As a result of those discoveries, An absolute gold rush is now underway. More recently, Yuri Milner, Jeff Bezos, Arch and others put a $1,000,000,000 to seed a new company called Altos Labs to pursue therapeutics in this area. Google has individually funded a company called Calico, led by Art Levinson, the former founder and CEO of Genentech. And just recently, Blake Byers and Brian Armstrong announced their new company called New Limit with a $100,000,000, their own personal capital All of these companies are pursuing the same effort, which is basically causing cells to be youthful to regenerate in a youthful way And as a result, you see kind of organs and and systems in the body act more healthily. And there will be magazine covers and, you know, 60 minutes articles stories and all sorts of stuff will start to happen in 2022 saying, oh my gosh. As because the amount of money that's gone in in this year is gonna cause breakthroughs and discoveries to start to get published about next year. And when that starts to happen and the media and the PR cycle start to kick up, you'll see this become the year of Yamanaka factor based reprogramming. And and everyone's saying it's gonna be the biggest gold rush in biotech since recombinant DNA was used by Genentech in the in the eighties nineties. Jason Calacanis (01:07:59): Alright. And I had most anticipated trend of 2022 being The accredited investor laws are going to change and evolve, and it might just be you take a test, and you're now accredited. It doesn't matter if you won the lottery or you make 200,000 a and a legal crypto framework is going to happen, I think, at the same time. So those regulations combined are gonna empower really interesting capital formation. on a global basis, whether it's running a syndicate with everybody in the world, including nonaccredited investors or DAOs or those 2 things merging, or as Calacanis talking about, you know, a cap table over here that's mirrored on a blockchain at the same time and people being able to trade their interest. in Shamat's fund or Saks's fund or one of my syndicates with tokens on the Internet. And that could become -- David Friedberg (01:08:47): That's pretty Jason Calacanis (01:08:48): cool. -- a major unlock. where, you know, if you were in -- Chamath Palihapitiya (01:08:52): I don't have a fund. I run a meager family office. Jason Calacanis (01:08:54): Well, if you were in your earlier funds and somebody and there were still stuff trickling to Social Capital 3, the people who have that could sell it back to you or sell it to each other if they wanted to get liquidity. And that's gonna be super interesting, especially if it could happen just globally where some person in China decides they wanna have access to US funds, RLP's could just start selling. if it was structured that way. Most anticipated film TV series media, yada yada for 202022, what do you got? Yellowstone season 9, Saxe? David Sacks (01:09:28): So I Jason Calacanis (01:09:29): said -- -- the first two episodes. It's really great. I mean, you forget what a great actor what's his name is? David Sacks (01:09:36): Kevin Coster. Kevin Jason Calacanis (01:09:38): Coster is a great actor. David Sacks (01:09:39): Yeah. Yellowstone is great. I'll be watching next season. But what I had down here is Thor Ragnarok, the writer director, Tika Watidi is back. if you saw the last Thor movie Jason Calacanis (01:09:50): -- David Sacks (01:09:50): Ragnorok. Ragnorok. Ragnorok is the last one. The new one is called Thor Love And Thunder. Jason Calacanis (01:09:56): Yeah. David Sacks (01:09:56): And, you know, Thor went from being, I think, one of the most boring Marvel characters in the first two movies to -- Totally. Jason Calacanis (01:10:02): -- David Sacks (01:10:02): being one of the funny and Jason Calacanis (01:10:03): -- David Sacks (01:10:03): Yeah. -- you know, most most fun in his last movie. So I think that sequel will be really good. And then the other one is they're doing a prequel show for Game of Thrones called House of the Dragon. I'm gonna have to watch that. And then the probably the the Star Wars show I'm looking forward to most would be the o b one Kanobi show with you and McGregor. So that looks Jason Calacanis (01:10:24): -- -- Anakin. It's based on -- Anakin. Yeah. -- and I had as well the Obi Wan Show, the Bobofette show, and the Mandalorian shows all coming back are going to be absolutely bonkers. And then there's also this token series that's coming out, the prequel, I think, that Amazon spending a $1,000,000,000 on, And I think that's landing in 2022. What do you got, Chamath? Chamath Palihapitiya (01:10:46): It is the all in summit in May, Miami, and the the birth of all in media. So I think that we, by the end of 2022, will have published content, written content, not necessarily by us. But other forms of media interaction that get the truth out to a -- Wow. -- large swath of humanity. Here we go. David Friedberg (01:11:14): Is this moving is this moving beyond just a couple of besties doing a podcast during lockdown? What? David Sacks (01:11:20): What? Wait. So all in media, is that a new acronym? Aim. Jason Calacanis (01:11:24): All in media? Why? Aim. Oh, what are we doing? Should we buy legacy cable channel and just go 24 hours? Chamath Palihapitiya (01:11:29): name is the truth. David Friedberg (01:11:30): A media. Jason Calacanis (01:11:31): A media. Okay. There you go. I didn't even know this is news to the rest of us, but Shamont is building on the media, bro. Okay. Here we go. David Sacks (01:11:37): Who am I gonna get a hire? Jason Calacanis (01:11:39): Tucker. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:11:41): There'll be no shortage of folks who will wanna come out of the woodwork to work with us on this. And I think the goal should just be to make sure we figure out what the real north star is so that we never deviate. And part of the biggest things that we did, guys, was not trying to hustle for some few, you know, shackles here or there, which was Jason Calacanis (01:12:01): -- David Sacks (01:12:01): Like Jake L wanted to. Jason Calacanis (01:12:03): Yeah. When I talk said -- We're gonna David Friedberg (01:12:04): we're gonna take out. We're gonna talk a minute about the plan for the southern shutdown. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:12:08): The purity of not wrapping this thing with crappy ads and all kinds of nonsense is we've never lost our way. we don't need some stupid deal for some crappy media company. We all have independent ways in which we can monetize our lives and our hard work. And so we should come to this to always tell the truth. Jason Calacanis (01:12:24): I think that that's one of the I will say one of the great innovations that and decisions that you championed was not putting ads on it. I hear it all the time for people. David Friedberg (01:12:33): I mean -- We're David Sacks (01:12:33): saying you from yourself, Jake. David Friedberg (01:12:35): It's an interesting idea where you where Jason Calacanis (01:12:36): you use advertising based Yeah. But if David Friedberg (01:12:38): you can close the shop -- -- business that's not driven by advertising dollars and not driven by greater by trying to maximize page views and click and visits Jason Calacanis (01:12:48): -- David Friedberg (01:12:48): Yeah. -- then it completely changes the equation of what's possible. I think this was part of the idea of what publicly funded media was supposed to be, but it obviously got you know, maybe a little bit too far to the left. Yeah. Too it was it's just too, you know, just too -- Well, then Jason Calacanis (01:13:02): they started adding ads. I don't know if you remember that. They they lost some funding, and they're like, okay. We're gonna go sponsorships or not ads or sponsorships. So you're David Sacks (01:13:08): saying we're the new PBS? Jason Calacanis (01:13:10): No. It's something different. David Friedberg (01:13:11): I mean, Jason Calacanis (01:13:12): this is -- We do this without any of financial reward. We do it because we enjoy it. And so -- David Friedberg (01:13:17): What's up for you, Jake? How? You've been? Jason Calacanis (01:13:19): No. I mean, I have other things that make money. Thank you very much. Jake has been pretty fucking good right now. hub and the big c l. David Friedberg (01:13:33): I think it matters Jason Calacanis (01:13:34): at the syndicate.com. Boop plug. Boop. Santa did get to see our first e l. Boop. David Friedberg (01:13:41): didn't know we were doing this category. Jason Calacanis (01:13:43): Oh, well, tell Chad Chamath Palihapitiya (01:13:44): Abby, season 16, up down Jason Calacanis (01:13:46): to that. -- David Sacks (01:13:46): watch TV. He doesn't have any Jason Calacanis (01:13:47): -- I would like to watch when he runs up doctor who. What BBC show that nobody watches are you gonna recommend? David Friedberg (01:13:53): Doesn't matter. I mean, come on. Jason Calacanis (01:13:55): What show from Finland with subtitles? David Friedberg (01:13:57): I don't know. You know, I I spend a lot of time watching, like, esoteric videos and stuff I find on YouTube. I really think it's so interesting. It's such a different way of consuming media. Jason Calacanis (01:14:07): Just tell us what video game you're playing. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:14:09): Chris Anderson is putting out a porno. Jason Calacanis (01:14:11): Oh, I'm not just saying it's going Chamath Palihapitiya (01:14:12): to be sitting as Anderson is part Jason Calacanis (01:14:14): of Ellis. So similar to Target? It's like Chamath Palihapitiya (01:14:15): really amazing. -- Sean will be of a vernacular going up and -- I felt like Jason Calacanis (01:14:19): I was in the Louvre watching this movie. Alright. What video game are you playing? I called I called Friedberg on the phone to talk him off a ledge when he was going crazy on the group chat. And he's like, I can't talk him on a video game. What video games? I was David Friedberg (01:14:30): actually playing a video game by Anna Herna Interactive, which is Larry Ellison's daughter's media production company. And, apparently, I didn't know this. They had a video game arm, and the video game are and the game I was playing was called McKette. And it you kind of you kind of have this, like, interesting movie, like, poetic experience as you play the game, so it's not really just designed to be act intact. Jason Calacanis (01:14:51): And I don't know. I thought David Friedberg (01:14:52): it was a very interesting new way of entertaining oneself. Okay. We can move on. David Sacks (01:14:57): It was highly stimulating. Jason Calacanis (01:14:59): He she made a simulation of a biology lab, and you actually get different beaker sizels, and you have different sub protein is like a Starbucks. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:15:06): You get to buy all of these lab equipment you want, but it needs a virtual crazy. Jason Calacanis (01:15:10): It's kind of like a simulation. It's the cybersecurity, Chamath Palihapitiya (01:15:13): you must first mine it. And the way that you mine is by solving mathematical equation. Speaker 6 (01:15:18): I made a cruelty free fit. device dish Jason Calacanis (01:15:21): in my laboratory because of the genocide of fish. That was a little controversial take last week. I got DMs from people. That was a spicy take free, Bert. Did you get any blowback from that spicy take last week? The spiciest of Chamath Palihapitiya (01:15:35): the fruit you did. David Friedberg (01:15:35): I'm actually gonna respond to everyone that sent me a note director. Jason Calacanis (01:15:40): Was it really? because I people are like, you're -- Well, I David Friedberg (01:15:42): think the -- Well, here's the thing. The comment I made that I think really triggered people was I said that animal agriculture is worse than human slavery. And maybe I'll just address it now real quick. Yeah. You know, I think the point of view that people took away from that was that I diminished you know, the pain and the resonance. Today, it's kind of socioeconomic context of human slavery, particularly recently in America. And that wasn't my intention at all. Jason Calacanis (01:16:11): Clearly, not your intention. Yeah. David Friedberg (01:16:13): What what I'm trying to highlight is, you know, 1st of all, human slavery has been around as long as humans have been around, right, for 10000 years back to ancient Egypt the enslavement of humans, the the the removal of opportunity and freedom granted to every living being is is certainly manifest in the form of human slavery, and we kind of take it as a very acute pain point. What I was highlighting is every year, Over a 100,000,000,000 land based animals are killed and they're born and put in in chains and put in jails, and then murdered and eaten by humans as routine. And we don't, like, lift our head up and recognize just how serious and how skilled this this this behavior is. The industrialization of this process, it's really abhorrent, and there's videos you can watch. And I think when you them. You'll recognize it. This is delicious. Yeah. Jason Calacanis (01:17:02): I'm sorry. I knew it was coming, Chima. Don't do it Chima. David Friedberg (01:17:05): And I no. But I I do think that Chima's you know, Chamas voice in this is is really the voice that's kept this from ever becoming an issue because it's not human, we don't kind of pay attention to it. Yeah. And I'm I'm just trying to highlight that there is something that is at such an extraordinary scale that we don't pay attention to that one day we'll wake up and we'll be like, oh my god. How do we Jason Calacanis (01:17:21): miss that? -- complete agreement with your free break. If you look at all life being precious and you say the life of a cow, the life of a dog, the life of a human, these are all lives the scale of suffering is these animal yeah. These animal that needs what humans experience to say. I'll be honest with you guys. David Friedberg (01:17:39): These animal these animal can problem solve. They can feel emotion. They can recognize they can they can recognize things happening to them and to their their loved ones and their family members. And I think that in the context of that to cause pain and suffering on those animals and on those creatures -- Yeah. Jason Calacanis (01:17:53): -- David Friedberg (01:17:53): at the scale that we do is something that's just mind blowing to me. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:17:56): I think that's fair enough. David Friedberg (01:17:57): And I that one day, we will wake up and be like, I cannot believe we let our society do that. But I do think that we need to solve Tamas problem, which is how do you make something that's freaking delicious? It's not how Jason Calacanis (01:18:06): do you David Friedberg (01:18:06): make it cheaper? Chamath Palihapitiya (01:18:07): on a second. It's not a problem. Like, my my perspective is I understand where you're coming from. I respect your point of view, but here's my point of view, which is We evolved to superior superiority in an evolutionary process that was not preordained Okay? And we are now in a position where we are allowed to consume things that we choose. Now there is also a claim that you could make that you know what? A tiger or a lion should not be attacking and killing a Gazelle because you know what that's causing suffering to the Gazelle or blah blah blah. At the end of the day, how we choose to go and consume the things that we need for sustenance is a choice that we can make, and there are probably better choices we can make over time. But at the end of the day, I think that this was a reasonable evolution of humanity and human ingenuity and intellect. And I don't Jason Calacanis (01:18:54): feel guilty about that. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:18:55): When when when when Yep. I don't weigh the suffering of animals the same way I weigh the suffering of human beings. I don't. David Friedberg (01:19:01): And I would argue that when we were eights in the jungle and we didn't have the choice, I would wholeheartedly agree with you. But today, we are people that do have the choice. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:19:11): What choice do Jason Calacanis (01:19:12): you have? David Friedberg (01:19:12): And it's because we have the choice to not eat meat and still survive and still be half be that we can make a better choice. Jason Calacanis (01:19:18): -- Chamath Palihapitiya (01:19:18): taste good. Like, there's a part of my soul. I'll just be very David Friedberg (01:19:20): honest with you. -- agree. And that's why I think we need to solve that problem, and that's why I believe Jason Calacanis (01:19:25): -- David Friedberg (01:19:25): It's not a problem. If if you made an alternative for you that tasted good and was as affordable as the alternative, which is actually killing an animal, you would choose it. And we haven't given you that solution yet. When when I say we, I mean, call it the techno food people, but there is a tremendous amount of money going into this area. and we will devise artificially produced meat that will not be made by killing an animal, but will be made in a Chamath Palihapitiya (01:19:48): lab that looks and tastes identical. Jason Calacanis (01:19:50): -- or a piece of sushi, just give us a year. over -- You'll David Friedberg (01:19:53): have a piece of sushi in 3 years. You will have -- k. Jason Calacanis (01:19:57): -- David Friedberg (01:19:57): you will be able to go taste chicken next year. It'll be very, very expensive. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:20:01): Okay. David Friedberg (01:20:01): But the cell based meat will be available. Jason Calacanis (01:20:03): And then let's get to that. David Friedberg (01:20:04): At a commercial scale, what are we gonna do? Jason Calacanis (01:20:07): Our you know, steak. That's really what it's about. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:20:09): David, my commitment to you is that we'll do a taste test whenever you say. What you call the you you pick the place the time. David Friedberg (01:20:15): Totally. I Chamath Palihapitiya (01:20:16): will show up. And if it's better, I will never eat meat again. David Friedberg (01:20:19): Okay. We're not we're not ready for that. That's a that's a great commitment. Jason Calacanis (01:20:22): Alright. Yeah. And I and I and I I am similar on the commitment. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:20:25): But in the meantime, Jason Calacanis (01:20:27): Oh, it's it's it's not take it's distaste. But I will say, Friedberg, if you're gonna have a party, and it's only vegan, you need to put that on the invite because I came thinking you were gonna feed it out. -- David Friedberg (01:20:39): came to my party, there was no meat. He was really upset. Jason Calacanis (01:20:42): was going around the my party being like, what the hell is this? David Friedberg (01:20:44): There's no meat in this party. What am I doing there? Jason Calacanis (01:20:46): Can you make me a hamburger? The woman from wherever, like, Napa was like, I've never touched meat Chamath Palihapitiya (01:20:52): in 30 years, whatever. -- incredible rib eye on New Year on Christmas Eve. Oh my god. Jason Calacanis (01:20:57): Rip eye. Speaker 6 (01:20:58): Alright, everybody. For the dictator himself, Chamath Palihapitiya with great hair, a touch of gray, never looked better. and the Sultan of Science, David Friedberg, and Charles Carlson's, Vasti, GOP front runner, David Sachs, super spreading, COVID. David Sacks (01:21:15): Super spreading the truth. Jason Calacanis (01:21:17): Super spreading the truth. David Sachs from an undisclosed besty, hideaway, which we all know, but we won't say. I'm Jake Howell, and we'll see you in 20 22 instead of rainier. Bye bye. We like your winter's ride. Rain David Saxons. And it said -- We open source it to the fans, and they've just gone crazy with it. Love you. besties are David Friedberg (01:21:56): a dog taking it. I'm missing your driveway. Speaker 7 (01:22:03): We should all just get a room and have one big huge order because they're Jason Calacanis (01:22:06): all just useless. It's like Speaker 7 (01:22:07): this, like, sexual tension that we just need to release somehow. Jason Calacanis (01:22:11): What? You're the thief. What? Pure feet. David Sacks (01:22:14): Be your feet. Jason Calacanis (01:22:15): Sweety sweat. We need to get mercies are back.