SpaceX IPO、伊朗战争余波、量子比特币黑客与太空机遇

Jason Calacanis (00:00:00): Alright, everybody. Welcome back to the number one podcast in the world. See you all in podcast. David Sachs couldn't make it this week, but we have the trio. David Freiberg is here, your self defense science, Jamak Pahya. SpaceX filed confidentially to go public on April 1 targeting a 1,750,000,000,000.00 with the t valuation. When SpaceX goes public, if it's at that 1.75, trillion dollar valuation, so weird to say trillion dollar valuation for an IPO, they would be the eighth largest company in the world right behind TSMC and Saudi Aramco. They're both worth 1 0.7 x, at the taping of this podcast. Tesla is number 10 with $1,370,000,000,000 valuation. Hey. If you were to combine those two, as many people are speculating will happen at some point and you can buy the stock ticker e l o n. That would be a $3,100,000,000,000 company, and that would make them the fourth largest company ahead of Microsoft. They're aiming to raise Chamath 75,000,000,000, which would be the by far the biggest raise ever in IPO. Expected to go out in June. I think they were trying to hit the 04/20 date because that would have been even more hilarious, but they're not gonna be able to do that. SpaceX recently acquired X dot ai for 250,000,000,000. That includes X and Twitter and the X dot ai large language model AI company Starlink, generating between 5080% of SpaceX's revenue. We'll have all those details shortly, and it'll be close to $20,000,000,000 a year according to reports. Launch of rockets is the other 40% of the business, 5,000,000,000 in 2024 according to reports. Total revenue, $20.25, 15 to 16,000,000,000 with 8,000,000,000 in profit according to Reuters. So let's stop there, and we're gonna talk about all the other IPOs that could be coming. Tramath, I think people really wanna know, and you may have mentioned this on an earlier episode, what are the chances Tesla after if this IPO goes well, that Tesla and SpaceX could wind up being the same company we saw? They're collaborating 100%. On a fab. A 100% is what you're putting it on. Jason Calacanis (00:02:10): Okay. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:02:10): Okay. Sorry. Let me let me be clear. 99.999%. David Friedberg (00:02:15): Okay. Jason Calacanis (00:02:16): What will that mean when if those two companies or when those two companies merge? Chamath Palihapitiya (00:02:23): One of the great things that happened in my career was there was a point where you know how, like, you grind at a level and then, you know, you just get exposed to things at a different level, and then you grind for years and you get exposed to things at yet another level. In one of those steps, I was very fortunate to be introduced by Thomas LaFonte, actually, to the head of Wachtell Lipton. Jason Calacanis (00:02:46): This is a law firm. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:02:48): Law firm. And his name is Ed Hurleyhee. And he said, this is the most important, well known, well run, powerful law firm in America. Then I looked at the transactions, and they're just in the middle of everything. And now, you know, my lawyer, Raj Narayan, who does everything for me, one of the senior partners I walked out, I can attest are incredible. And they said to me in the middle of all of this stuff when I was doing a bunch of deals, they said, Jamath, just get ready to pay a tax. And I said, what does that mean? They said, the way that the American capital markets are set up is both that you can be incredibly creative and do incredible things. But and we talked about this a little bit last week. There's a bunch of tort that allows folks to hang around the hoop and get paid no matter what. You see this in all IPOs. Shareholder lawsuits abound, and they try to create a class out of it. And the reason they do that is that there's D and O insurance that then will pay out some number of millions of dollars. The attorneys take 40 or 50%, and then these plaintiffs get a few bucks. You saw how egregious this tort manipulation was when this guy with 10 shares sued Elon's comp package at Tesla and won. And what was that really? That was the trial lawyers trying to get paid hundreds of millions of dollars by exploiting a scene. Jason Calacanis (00:04:09): Was a shakedown. Call it an example. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:04:10): Was a shakedown. Why am I bringing this If you take the the Raj and Ed example of this, this SpaceX IPO is going to set up a couple of things. The first is there's just gonna be the natural noise in the market, and Elon will have to sort through all of the little ticky tacky things. But the most important positive thing that will happen from the IPO is a validated external mark to market valuation of SpaceX. And the market every day in real time gives you a valid mark to market assessment of the value of Tesla. And this allows you to put these two things together to minimize these losses. And I think that that's what Elon really needs. It'll make his life tremendously simpler from a governance perspective. It'll make the companies and this quibbling about his time a nonissue because, again, nobody talks about Zuck or Satya or Sundar or Jensen allocating time across various projects inside of Meta or Google or Microsoft or Nvidia, nor should they really make this claim from Elon because as you're seeing, there's actually an enormous overlap and commonality to the various things that he is doing. He's building the robots, but they're used inside of SpaceX. He's building a TeraFab. They're used inside of Tesla. He's building XAI. They're used across both. So I think we need to do this. It'll minimize the shareholder noise because it'll give less room to somebody that says, hey. He set a valuation out of thin air. Jason Calacanis (00:05:48): Well, and Chamath Palihapitiya (00:05:49): But dollars to donuts, these things are going to merge. Jason Calacanis (00:05:51): And it speaks to the singularity that's going on right now. You know, you had a car company, you had a space company. Okay. That was a pretty how do those two things overlap? And it's like AI data centers in space. Where do you get chips from? And then actually going to raw materials inside of one factory, going out the other and having discussed it with Elon many times. What he learned, you know, at Tesla or SpaceX about advanced materials informed different products at the different companies. And now you just, you'll have all of that in one place. And then you think about the brain trust that he built at those two companies plus Boring Company, plus Neuralink. If they're all in there, all this cross disciplinary learning is gonna compound and compound and compound. Elon knows more about factories than probably Anybody. Anybody. Like there's some people in China who have Foxconn knows a lot about factories. You know? So there are some people who know as much or or probably even a little bit more about some aspects of it, but that's a true advantage of bringing those two teams together. And you saw it. People would go from one company to the other. Freeburg, my question for you very acutely with your NASA hat and, you know, your your background today is twenty years ago, he he started trying to get to space with SpaceX, and here we go. There's more rockets going off in a month now than there are days in the month for the for the entire country, and he's got rockets going up every two or three days. You can just basically hop on a SpaceX flight and get to space. Maybe you could just use your vision there to tell the audience what could things look like in another twenty years if SpaceX continues at this cadence or even, you know, goes faster because of AI. David Friedberg (00:07:33): Well, this week's a pretty important milestone for that point because we just launched Artemis two yesterday, which is man's returning to the moon. So The United States shipped this rocket with four astronauts on board. They're gonna do an orbit around the Earth, head to the moon, come back around, and come back to to Earth in anticipation of landing on the moon in about two years. And getting to the moon, I think, is gonna be very important not just because there's this important social milestone and race happening on right now with China, But I think the moon could end up being kind of the next industrial frontier for humanity. And the reason is if you can get to the moon, the moon has an extraordinary abundance of material that we can mine, process, and manufacture into goods. And, ultimately, the cost to ship those goods back to the earth is zero. It will cost less to move goods, manufactured goods, processed, precious metals from the moon to a specific point on Earth. It will cost less to do that than to ship it using any other terrestrial conventional method, whether that's a boat, an airplane, or a railroad. And the reason is that on the moon, you can take advantage of the low gravity. It's about one sixth the gravity and the complete lack of an atmosphere, meaning that it's frictionless to move material off of the moon and very low energy to move it off of the moon. You do not need to use a rocket propellant with high energy like we have to do to move things off of the Earth. In fact, the design for moving material off of the moon is to use what's called a mass driver, which is like a a train track, like a rail, like an electric rail. You kinda seen these in, you know, high speed trains that work on kind of magnetic levitation, and you could put a package on that rail and use electricity to accelerate that package to a 100 g force, shoot it back to the Earth, or theoretically shoot it to Mars, and it will go to the exact point on the Earth you want it to go to, reenters the atmosphere, and lands with a simple parachute where you want it to go. So we could run continuous mining, continuous manufacturing processes on the moon at a fraction of the cost of what it would take to do it here on Earth. The biggest limiting factor, getting people to the moon. David Friedberg (00:09:51): And that is largely solved or will be solved in the next few years by robotics. So I think that there's this pretty profound intersection with what's going on in robotics with this moment for space industrialization and moving to the moon. So, you know, Tesla, I think twenty years from now is actually a more interesting story, whether they're the same, independent company or the same company. I think we're gonna look back one day and have this kind of laughing observation that Tesla started out as an electric car company. Jason Calacanis (00:10:19): 100%. David Friedberg (00:10:20): Ended up becoming an autonomous car company, and the autonomous competency is what led to the robotics revolution. And the robotics revolution, even if the socialists ban robotics on earth and tell us no robots allowed, they're taking all the jobs, you could ship all those robots to the moon and they could get to work and create an entirely new manufacturing frontier for our civilization, for humanity. That frontier can manufacture precious metals and other goods and ship them back. You could manufacture semiconductors on the moon. All that's missing is the robots. So moving the robots to the moon or setting up the materials for robots to build themselves on the moon is kind of the first phase of this transition, you know, asking about twenty years from now. And then the next phase is building this all up. So, look, I mean, I think that this may not be that it certainly won't be limited to just SpaceX, but SpaceX is demonstrating its capacity at being effectively the railroads. You know, what the railroads were to the West and to the frontier in the West, you know, in the last generation, SpaceX will be to the moon and ultimately to Mars, and there's gonna be an extraordinary abundance of production that's gonna come out of the moon. The moon has everything, by the way. And I'll say one more thing about SpaceX. SpaceX has also created, and this is gonna be a big part of the valuation analysis that many are doing, they've created a backup to the Internet. You know, the Internet is fundamentally limited by all of the nodes on the network and the connectivity amongst all those nodes. And that connectivity is largely driven by copper and fiber optic cable. So in space, with the number of satellites going up with Starlink and to actually deploy data centers that can output data on those nodes on that network, SpaceX has largely built a backup Internet. David Friedberg (00:11:53): And that backup Internet can coincide with the Earth's Internet, but it creates this extraterrestrial communication network that gives us theoretically the ability to think about, hey, if governments collapse, if there's civilizational upheaval, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera, this becomes, I think, a fundamentally kind of important technology infrastructure that's gonna exist in parallel. So I'm pretty excited about, like, these two separate paths for SpaceX and where they intersect with Tesla. I think it's pretty profound at the moment. Jason Calacanis (00:12:21): Yeah. It it can't be understated what lowering the cost per kilogram to get to space has done to entrepreneurs around the company. There's multiple entrepreneurs who are now doing asteroid mining or Varda doing experimentation in space. And I have a I've been doing some late stage stuff to mop with my syndicate. And one of the interesting companies we syndicated, we we did Zipline, which is a great company, but we also did this company called VaaS, VaaS Space. Jed is the founder. He he created Ripple and and and some other crypto projects, and he put a lot of his money, hundreds of millions of dollars into this company, Vast Space, and they're designing a space station. How did they do it? Well, they just bought carriage on SpaceX rockets, and they paid in advance. They have their slot, And now they're doing this massive innovation to make modular space station components. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:13:14): Here's what I'll Jason Calacanis (00:13:15): And the thesis is, hey. What if Google or Amazon want to have a space station in space? You know, it's completely possible they may want that. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:13:23): Here's what I'll say. I think sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. There are all of these ways that so many people will end up with participation into SpaceX. I think we all owe Elon an enormous thanks. I think that this is going to unleash just an unbelievably large economy of things that we have no idea about. And when I see this thing, that video that you just showed, what it reminds me is that we have a very rudimentary capability in space. What does that mean? If you take if you catch a ride on Falcon nine or Falcon Heavy, basically, it's dropping you off at 550 kilometers, I think. You have a different problem if you're trying to get to geo. But even if you get dropped off at 500 or five fifty, how do you get to your actual orbital plane? Right? So meaning, if you think of Elon as, like, the big container ships that go from China to America, once it gets to Long Beach, you need FedEx. There's an entire infrastructure there that's gonna get all of this logistics built last mile. There's a huge garbage collection problem that's getting built up. We still haven't technically solved how to do garbage collection in space. There's nets. There's magnetic plates. All of that is getting fixed. Then there's gonna be an explosion in actual power generation. The cell composition of solar cells up in space are materially different. It's a really incredible thing. You look at these thin sheets. They are like one millimeter thick. You if you carried it on your hand, the glass breaks. Yet you can smash a meteor into it when it's laid and laminated, and nothing happens. It's like the it's like so my point is in every single dimension of what the earthly economy looks like, it's now gonna go and get rebuilt in space. There'll be a FedEx of space. There'll be a Maersk of space. There'll be a don't know what the garbage collection companies are, Allied Waste of space. There's gonna be everything of space that exists in The United States. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:15:27): Friedberg just talked about the Freeport Macron of space. Like, everything. And that we owe to him. Jason Calacanis (00:15:35): Yeah. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:15:36): And I hope he gets that credit because the amount of businesses I think that can get created and the amount of value that will be created on top of SpaceX's shoulders is vast. It's the beginning of the beginning of the beginning, and it's gonna create enormous opportunities for people who are smart and resourceful. Jason Calacanis (00:15:55): And, Freiberg, maybe you could comment on the PGMs, the palladium that's on asteroids, and just they're rare here on Earth. If we had an unlimited supply or a continuous supply of those minerals, you know, what what could the downstream effect of that be? And then what if we find things in space that we are unaware of? There are unknown unknowns. Correct, Friedberg, when you start to conceptualize this? David Friedberg (00:16:21): I do think, like, the asteroid mining is an interesting concept, but I do think it's gonna be more likely that we'll have the need for infrastructure so we can produce ores and refine and so on versus, you know, bringing chunky rock back. I think that you could do this very effectively on the moon. The primary elements that are missing from the moon that we have on the Earth are, you know, carbon, nitrogen, hydrogen, and oxygen, basically, these things that make life on Earth, but that's because they primarily exist in a gaseous form, and the Earth has enough gravity to retain those gases and have an atmosphere. The moon is too small to maintain an atmosphere. The gravity is too little, so those gases all kind of went away. They evaporated away in the early formation of the Earth and the moon. But on the moon, there's everything else. There's aluminum. There's silicon. There's palladium. There's platinum. There's gold. There's everything you possibly need. So I think as we do the calculus on all of this, we'll end up realizing that the moon is probably the best frontier. One of the biggest issues is dissipating heat because you don't have an atmosphere. But, theoretically, you could recapture that heat and use, like, helium gas or something to turn a turbine and actually run production of even more electricity. You just put a couple solar panels out. I did the math on this. It's like 500 square meters of solar panels will let you run a four kilometer mass driver to ship material back to the earth every ten to fifteen minutes. One ton of material every ten to fifteen minutes. Jason Calacanis (00:17:46): On the sled you described earlier that Elon's been talking about as well. Yeah. David Friedberg (00:17:50): So you could think about having autonomous mining vehicles deployed on the moon, processing the ore, and then sending completely processed material back. And then for a heat shield for reentry to the earth, you just use moon rock. You only need about 15 centimeters of moon rock at the front of the package, and then that'll burn up when it reenters the atmosphere and the package kind of parachutes down and lands where you want it to land in your industrial shipyard or whatever. So there's just like you know, I think we'll we'll continue to kinda iterate on this. I'm speculating in a bunch of different ways. Beginning of the beginning. Gosh. Jason Calacanis (00:18:21): I mean, can you imagine having a moon base in America Like going like yeah. Well, imagine Jake Present permanently present on the moon is just and factories on the moon Chamath Palihapitiya (00:18:30): is just wild to conceive. Can David Friedberg (00:18:32): you guys just imagine, like, the middle or the early nineteenth century, like, late seventeen hundreds, early eighteen hundreds in America? And there's, like, all this land out on the West. And, like, whatever people were contemplating in that moment about what they were gonna go do with that land on the West and they started to travel west, their minds would have been blown to see what happened a hundred years later or now a hundred and fifty years later. You know? Like, it just that's the moment that we're at right now, and the railroads are being built to get us to this next great frontier. They're being laid out before us. And the opportunity is really limited only by our imagination. And before, we would have never been able to tackle these great frontiers, but this magical new technology came about called robots. And these robots are are going to allow us to actually make use of these frontiers and explore them and develop them. And that's why this is such an incredible moment where this intersection of autonomy and robotics and space traversal kind of drive forward humanity into this new era. And it's again, this is not a zero sum game. This is expanding humanity's potential, expanding production, which is so different than the way the socialists on Earth are talking about it where everyone's fighting against progress. Zero Jason Calacanis (00:19:41): sum game. David Friedberg (00:19:42): Because they think that progress is some people taking things from other people. And the truth is it's about everyone building stuff that's new and everyone benefiting from this. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:19:51): I'm gonna open a hotel casino in this space. I would go. That would be so silly. Jason Calacanis (00:19:55): Serious. Yeah. Absolutely. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:19:57): You think it's funny, but I am. I would love that. Jason Calacanis (00:19:59): Yeah. And then, no rake. Wow. That's yeah. With the robotics and the, pleasure droids, replicants. Oh, man. It could get crazy. Alright. Well, let's just hope you're we're not the Donner party on the way there. 2026. David Friedberg (00:20:28): Don't worry. You'll be you'll Chamath Palihapitiya (00:20:29): be safely on the ground schlepping syndicates. You'll be I'll Jason Calacanis (00:20:34): I'll tell you something. Thank you. Shout out to syndicate.com. You're blind to join me. Great companies. Do you own Listen. I'm still working. You guys might be retired, but I'm in the game. In the arena trying things, Tremott. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:20:46): Selling I'm selling enterprise software every day. That's what Jason Calacanis (00:20:49): I literally, Tremont said, hey, Jake. How can we get wrap this up real quick? Because I gotta get on a sales call. I got a discovery call. Listen. I like the fact that we're all working. We're working into our fifties. I love it. Hey. 2026 could be an all time record for IPOs. Looks like it will be. Anthropic, OpenAI, Databricks. I mean, these are all 9 and possibly 10 figure IPOs in terms of the valuations. Long tail of other companies, Stripe, Cerebras, Canva, Discord, lots of people waiting. Here's your poly market. SpaceX, 94%, obviously. That looks like it's, we just talked about that for twenty minutes. Anthropic, 41%, and and people were saying 70% in February. OpenAI, 38%. Databricks, 32%. People are wondering what could, derail this. Obviously, we we we have a very pro business group of people in Washington DC, but you have potentially this Iran war, and we'll talk about that later in the program, could potentially push us back if God forbid it was to spiral or there was a recession, maybe the Democrats, you know, taking control of congress, senate, etcetera. What what are your thoughts here on the flurry of potential IPOs? We're talking about trillions of dollars of companies, Chamop. And if that does happen, let's start talking second and third order impact of of that kind of distribution chain that could happen for LPs. And then just also all these employees, you know, and then a currency for these companies will go from a mag seven to a mag 17, it looks like. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:22:26): I think that we have a bit of a risk problem. And I think this is why it makes so much sense for Elon to get out first. If you think about appetite as equivalent to, like, a person at a Thanksgiving dinner, when you first come in and you see all of this stuff, it's so plentiful. Your eyes are bigger than your stomach. And I think in a moment like that, you wanna be the one that is consumed first. And I think the risk increases when you are at the tail end because the risk is that the diners will run out of space. If you use that analogy, think the reason why people's plates will get full are probably twofold and maybe threefold. The first and most important thing is there's enough tactical event risk that people generally wanna be risk off and have more margin of safety. I think the Iran thing is kind of in there, but I think the big tactical event risk is that we have a lot of these really important financial moments tied to this concept of AGI, ASI. I don't know if you saw the OpenAI announcement on their final terms, but, you know, a huge slug of Amazon's capital is tied to a 2028 IPO or a moment that calls for this. Then there was a bunch of leaked text messages or whatever that said that there's a version of some AGI running inside of Anthropic. Then there was the fact that the leak of Claude code basically demonstrated that they had feature flagged away a bunch of improvements. So if you stack up all these improvements, they're actually much further ahead than the models realize. If you take all of that as a basket, it goes back to what I said last week, which is we have a real pricing problem. If AGI is real, the durability of most companies is slim to none. If AGI is not real, then the fundraising capacity of these companies that are now raising hundreds of billions of dollars needs to get questioned and inspected thoroughly. History will sort out which one is right, but both cannot be right. So in that vein, I actually think, Jay Cal, I don't think we're gonna have, like, these quote unquote blockbuster stream of IPOs. I think what happens is SpaceX is gonna get out. They're gonna do great. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:24:49): And then maybe the next one does good to great. Then the next one will do good. And then the appetite runs out because you just can't absorb incrementally trillions of dollars of new demand. And if you think about it, where is it gonna come from? Is it gonna come from the sidelines? I don't know. Jason Calacanis (00:25:08): I think it's more of Chamath Palihapitiya (00:25:09): a reallocation exercise. But if you look at the S and P, well, most people are now defensively moving away from these kinds of things towards the things that are more protected, what the industry calls halo. Right? High asset, low obsolescence kind of businesses. Those things trade for zero today, Jason. You could buy hundreds of millions of dollars a year of cash flow for two to five times right now in the stock market. And so why are you gonna go way out on the risk curve and buy something at 200 times revs, let alone earnings? Jason Calacanis (00:25:41): Yeah. The Chamath Palihapitiya (00:25:42): the So I don't know. I'm I'm more in the camp of I think it's good to be first. It's pretty decent to be second. But if I were you, I would get the heck out and get public and get your money and fortify your balance sheet ASAP because I think the risk builds the further down the IPO chain you're in. Jason Calacanis (00:26:02): Yeah. There's gonna be a competition for investor dollars, whether it's retail or it's institutional or sovereign wealth funds. They're gonna have a lot of choices here. Do you wanna be in NVIDIA? Do you wanna be in SpaceX? Maybe you have to rotate out of Amazon or Google or Disney in order to take on those opportunities, and that's gonna be a a great competition. Probably, we could see a lot of these IPOs, Friedberg, trade below their IPO price in the year or two after they come out and get repriced. Yeah. Like we've seen before. I think the market's gonna need to find a price. Remember that the share owners in a lot David Friedberg (00:26:38): of these companies have held on to these shares for a long period of time, and the valuations are extraordinary. I mean, hundreds of billions of dollars in market value coming to market liquid for the first time. Some of these investors, regardless of whatever their entry price was, are gonna be looking for liquidity. So there's only so much capital to absorb those shares on the buy side. Meaning, if the buyers and the bid is not there to fulfill all of the selling, then you're gonna see the share price decline, and the market's gonna find a price. And so I I think this idea that, like, an IPO is, you know, just a step in driving the price or value of a company up is a pretty false sense. And and I think we'll realize it's pretty false as some of these IPOs take place because there is so much pent up selling demand. There is so much value that's been created. There's gonna be so much selling pressure, and then there's gonna be very little buying activity on some of these because anyone that could have bought at scale on the buy side post public were already in a lot of these companies pre public as private companies. And so I don't know who the big buyers are that everyone's expecting are gonna show up. They're probably thinking it's Chamath Palihapitiya (00:27:48): gonna be retail. David Friedberg (00:27:49): Retail. Yeah. I mean, it's like Yeah. But how Jason Calacanis (00:27:51): much money does retail have left? I mean, you if you look at retail investors, they have a certain amount of powder, and it's probably deployed. It's not like they have unlimited places to look for that. And, you know, there's some evidence of this. Bloomberg ran an article on Wednesday. We tape on Thursday, folks, and you get to listen to the bot on Fridays. OpenAI is falling out of favor with secondary buyers. According to a report, OpenAI investors can't find buyers at the new 850,000,000,000 valuation that Shamath referenced earlier. Investors Bloomberg spoke to are looking to sell $600,000,000 worth of shares. People are looking for liquidity and said they were institutional investors. Anthropic, currently valued at 300,000,000,000, is seeing major secondary bids at $600,000,000,000 valuation. So I think, Chamath, what this shows us is you're correct. They're you know, OpenAI and Anthropic are the two next cards. That's your turn in river, folks, if SpaceX is the flop. And maybe they're massively overvalued right now. Maybe they're $3.04, 500,000,000 billion dollar companies, not trillion dollar companies. And if you look at the amount of revenue, 24,000,000,000 for, OpenAI at 852,000,000,000. That's 35 times price to sales ratio, and that is a absurd price to sales ratio depending on if the growth keeps happening. And as you referenced, Shammoth, what if we are at artificial general intelligence, AGI, and the moats on these things is de minimis, or or there is no moat. Anthropic just got hacked. All their secrets are out. Somebody transmuted the code into another language, posted it on GitHub. Can't be stopped. I don't know if you saw that story, Freiburg, but this is kinda mind blowing. Somebody took the Anthropic code. I don't know what it was written in and then basically just put it into another language, reposted it. If Anthropic comes and says, hey, you can't do that. Well, that negates their argument, Chamath, that they're allowed to train on other people's data and then spit out a different output. So this is a very weird moment in time. Right? Chamath Palihapitiya (00:29:55): It is. I think you're you're bringing up a bunch of different points, so let me just sort them out in the order that I think is important. Is there a market for OpenAI at 800,000,000,000? Yes. And there should be. When I read that press release, my mind was blown. This is a I've never seen a business like this. And I'd say the same thing of Anthropic. What an incredible thing that both of these two companies have been able to create. Nobody in the history of the world has ever seen two businesses like this at this scale. Okay? It's unbelievable. These are trillion dollar companies. They both are, and they both deserve to be. How profitable they are? I don't know. What their terminal valuation is? I don't know. What will people pay for at IPO? I don't know. But, Nick, I just shared something with you. These two companies need to get out as quickly as possible. And the reason is every single company that comes after it, all those companies that you just named, Jason, are not nearly as important and do not need the money nearly as badly as these guys do. And where will it come from? The specific answer to your question when you look at this chart is the tech sector PE is going to shrink faster, in my opinion, than the nontech PE. And the reason is because as these companies come out, the combination of SpaceX OpenAI and Anthropic, all three are baking an AI technology that first and foremost will go after the tech sector. It will eliminate and it will cannibalize and it will erode most of the moats that support this differential trading. So if I were a betting man, my first bet is as those three companies come out, these software businesses are going to approach the rest of the non tech PE. Okay, that's the first step that has to happen. So the rate of change of the multiple erosion will basically say to the world, Hey, these tech companies are, I don't know, I'll buy the first five or six years of this story, but I'm not buying here fifteen of this anymore because these three guys are gonna build something. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:32:05): So that's where the money comes from. That's why I think after SpaceX, these two guys need to get their act together, file quickly, get out, and just get the money, fortify their balance sheets, be in a position. Freeberg Everything that happens after that is a total coin toss because once these three companies are public, I think the blue line will converge to the orange line, and it's gonna be nasty. Jason Calacanis (00:32:26): Yeah. Freeberg, just looking at this, do you believe that secondary market is a canary in the coal mine here with OpenAI? Because if we we've and we've gone through this year after year here. These are exceptional businesses. They've grown incredible. Customers love their products, but the burn is brutal. The circular financing problem is still out there. Like, what's reality here? And that's gonna all come out when these s ones get filed, and they're publicly traded companies and have quarterly earnings reports. Market share for these could be flipping, Anthropic and and Gemini, other players coming into the market. What are your thoughts here on, Anthropic and OpenAI post the SpaceX IPO? David Friedberg (00:33:09): Like I said, there's only so much capital in the world. So I do think one of the things that's probably being underestimated at the moment is the liquidity crunch that's ahead for capital intensive technology businesses given the conflict in The Middle East. I don't think that Qatar and certain Saudi offices and certain offices in UAE and Oman are as eager as they were or, you know, have been to provide large slugs of capital to support these initiatives. And remember, that capital moves its way through the markets, whether it's through JPMorgan and a loan to SoftBank, which then gets paid to OpenAI. At the end of the day, there has to be unencumbered debt free capital that's being provided to these systems from somewhere in the world. And if you trace all of it back, like, a large chunk of it has historically in the last couple of years come from Middle East sovereigns and family offices. And I think that those are likely gonna tighten up in the near term. That being the case, there's probably less demand. I do think that there's a lot of secondary demand coming from family offices in Europe and Singapore, places like that that that generally have not had great access or early stage access to private companies. But at some point, there's only so much demand there. So I don't know, like, how far this is gonna go or when this capital crunch that's gonna emerge, I think, from The Middle East. I don't think we've really felt the shock wave yet on what's happening because remember, lot of these Middle East capital commitments were made in the last cycle as LP commitments or whatever. And, you know, if they stop if they downscale LP commitments or they stop doing primary and secondary transactions, you know, it takes a little bit of time before the market feels that. And then it's like, oh, the reliable go to are gone. And a lot of the big funds, the the mega funds that are Totally. David Friedberg (00:34:54): Out there that have Middle East LPs are gone. And suddenly everyone's gonna be like, woah. And the shock wave will hit. So let's see. It is a risk for The United States because China, I don't think, is gonna be as challenged. We're so dependent on Middle East capital, but maybe that China has an a capital advantage actually going into this next phase. Jason Calacanis (00:35:14): Mean, we talked about force majeure I don't know. Come into play here if this surrounding spirals, god forbid, out of control or gets worse. People could say, you know what? We're we're gonna downscale our commitments and, hey. There's a war, so we we don't have to fund Chamath Palihapitiya (00:35:28): this. Markets I think the markets have shaked that off, Jason. I don't think that they they view this Iran thing as a big thing. I think the big event risk in the market is, is AI real or not real? And if it's real, what are all of these companies worth? That is the big sordidamyclees over the stock market. Jason Calacanis (00:35:43): Yeah. Alright. Well, that's a good segue, I think, into talking a bit about Iran. We took the week off from it last week, and we're gonna catch up By David Friedberg (00:35:54): the way, not because we just to be clear, not because we intended to, which all the comments railed us on, but we literally Jason did a terrible job moderating. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:36:01): Terrible. David Friedberg (00:36:02): On the frigging docket. We were supposed to talk about it. We didn't get to it. Dialed it in. We went right home. He Jason Calacanis (00:36:08): dialed it in. So it's clearly my fault. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:36:11): He DMB'd it. He you know, it's David Friedberg (00:36:12): like Yeah. No. Jason Calacanis (00:36:13): I'm always protecting Trump. I'm out here I'm getting covered for Trump's mistakes. Yeah. Yeah. Everybody knows I'm in the pocket Chamath Palihapitiya (00:36:20): of president Trump. Take a ticket. Take a ticket. Oh, you have an issue? Okay. Well, you're issue number 17. Jason Calacanis (00:36:25): Trump DMed me and said, can you please take this off the docket? I was like, you got it, boss. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:36:30): And then you're like, oh, sorry. Office is closed. Come back tomorrow. Jason Calacanis (00:36:33): Today is day 34 of the Iran war slash military operation. Trump addressed the nation Wednesday night for a brisk eighteen minutes. Here's a forty second clip. Speaker 4 (00:36:44): We're now totally independent of the Middle East, and yet we are there to help. We don't have to be there. We don't need their oil. We don't need anything they have, but we're there to help our allies. For years, everyone has said that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons, but in the end, those are just words if you're not willing to take action when the time comes. Our objectives are very simple and clear. We are systematically dismantling the regime's ability to threaten America or project power outside of their borders. And tonight, I'm pleased to say that these core strategic objectives are nearing completion. Jason Calacanis (00:37:24): Alright. The costs here are mounting. War is a very serious business. Thirteen American service members have tragically died. Over 200 have been injured On the other side of the ledger, thirty five hundred Iranians have died, including 1,600 civilians and over 200 children. Twelve hundred people in Lebanon have died from Israeli strikes. And we now have 50,000 troops deployed to the Middle East. Chances of a ground invasion are increasing. War has cost $70,000,000,000 so far. That's assuming $2,000,000,000 a day, which there seems to be consensus on via the Department of War. Pentagon has asked Congress for another $200,000,000,000. To put that in context, the war in Ukraine was a $113,000,000,000 in the first year. This could quickly exceed it when we hit fifty days. This isn't cheap. There are lots of costs. Here's your poly market on a ceasefire. 25% chance of a ceasefire by the April, 47 chance by the May. The Sharps are thinking this could wrap up, but ground invasion, which would be just really impactful, I think. 63% chance by the April, 71 chance by the December. We're gonna get into the second order effects. But what do you think, Chamath? This obviously is super unpopular war. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:38:55): I think two things. And the president kind of alluded to one that I think is very important, which is if you are not energy independent, you are at risk. And I don't know how many more examples now that world leaders need to be shown to get their acts together. So if the Ukraine Russia conflict didn't show Europe, then this should show not just Europe, but the rest of the world. You need to be in control of your own energy infrastructure and energy independence because stuff happens in the world, and you're not always in control or can shape how that stuff can indirectly or directly affect you. The United States has energy independence. It's an incredible situation. What was interesting to me is if you look at Europe, you know, they gutted a couple of their energy markets, and they essentially ceded control to a combination of very expensive imports and China. They did that in markets like nuclear where they just went out of it. They did that in things like nat gas where, again, we can debate, but where where did Nord Stream two go? We don't know. And they did that in things like solar where they just gutted all of the credits. But what's interesting is they're starting to turn that around. I think Italy just reintroduced effectively what's called investment tax credits. Spain just did as well. Germany is restarting nuclear. So if you just look at the last few months, just that change is incredibly important because our largest ally, Europe, should be fundamentally energy independent so that they preserve complete and total optionality like we do in how we respond to these situations. That I think I think is a is a critical thing that is a positive outcome of what's happening. And then the second, Jason, which I think is a huge question mark, and it builds on what Friedberg said before, the Middle Eastern states, specifically The UAE and Saudi, Qatar, Kuwait, they are our most important financing and banking partner in the future. And I think we need to see a conclusive end to this war because they need to be in a position to monetize these critical assets. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:41:11): Because at the same time, if you see these big pools of demand start to become energy independent by either accelerating nuclear, but, again, that's just problematic and slow. But frankly, they're just gonna ramp up solar. That's the only way that you can dispatch energy quickly. I think what that does is it decreases hydrocarbon demand over the long run. That then decreases the monetization capacity for these countries. So if you put these two things together, all of these folks in the region want safety, security, and they need a quick end to this thing now. Okay. And I think that they're more incentivized to put boots on the ground, Jason, than America is. That's the point I was trying to make. Jason Calacanis (00:41:49): Friedberg, let's talk a little bit about fertilizer. You had brought up when we had the start of the Ukraine war, hey, this is the breadbasket, we could have a massive famine. Thankfully, that was avoided. There were carve outs for getting wheat and other crops out of Ukraine. But here we are again with a significant amount of fertilizer comes out of that region, and it's not flowing right now. Do you have concerns this time around that we could see something similar? David Friedberg (00:42:23): Fertilizer is made up of three elements. There's different fertilizers. The one element is n for nitrogen, p for phosphorus, and k for potassium. Ukraine is the largest producer of the k, the potassium, the potash. But the n in fertilizer is nitrogen, and that is about 60% of what goes into the ground. That 60 to 65% of global fertilizer is the nitrogen. That's what really drives agricultural productivity. And we need nitrogen fertilizer to grow crops everywhere on earth that we're growing crops to feed people at scale. That nitrogen is primarily made where natural gas is produced and processed. And the reason is that they use the natural gas as an input to the production process. They get the the carbon, the hydrogen, the oxygen, and then they compress remember, 70% of our atmosphere is made up of nitrogen gas. So they compress the nitrogen in the air to 200 times atmospheric pressure, run it over a electrical current with a metal catalyst, and you break apart the n twos. You have just single nitrogen atoms, and then you combine it back, and you end up getting ammonia out of the other end. That's why nitrogen fertilizers are produced where natural gas is processed. So The Middle East obviously is a massive producer, particularly in Qatar of natural gas. And that's why so much of the world's nitrogen fertilizer is made in The Middle East. In fact, about 35% of the world's nitrogen fertilizer goes through the Strait Of Hormuz, and it is then shipped to countries around the world that farm and that need it to grow their crops. The swing producer in the world is China. China historically makes about 15% of the world's nitrogen fertilizer. And when the war started, a few days after it began, China shut down exports of their nitrogen fertilizer. And so they basically choked out the rest of the world. And so when the Strait Of Hormuz shut, the nitrogen stopped flowing. Here, you can see the price spike that happened. So once the the war began, this is urea. Urea is the solid form of nitrogen fertilizer. David Friedberg (00:44:28): So urea was trading at about $350 a ton before the the conflict kind of took off, and it continues to spike up. It reached over $700 a ton in the last two days. And this is really, really, really impactful. It's not just like, oh, the price is double. Number one, there's a supply deficiency. So farmers in places like Africa and South Asia are not getting the urea that they need to farm. That is going to have a massive follow on problem. And in markets where they have access because the price has spiked, like in The United States, our biggest crop is corn. You need about 200 pounds of that urea per acre for corn. And that cost basically makes you unprofitable. There is no way you can make a profitable crop of corn. The other thing that China did at the same time is they stopped buying corn. So corn prices would normally spike up and corn prices have remained low while the input prices have spiked for American farmers. So American farmers are in a real pickle. Fortunately, for this spring planting, which is happening right now, about two thirds of American farmers had already secured their fertilizer before this began, but a third did not. And they're switching crops typically to soybeans. But we have a fall planting coming up in a couple of months here, and the choke points on production is gonna keep prices very high. In The United States, we make a lot of our own ammonia at our natural gas facilities in places like Oklahoma and Texas and Wyoming and other places, and then it ships directly to the farms. But the cost is so high because of the global market that it's gonna become very hard for farmers to make a profit. And around the world, there are many farmers, millions and millions of farmers that can't access this fertilizer now. So the choke point in the Strait Of Hormuz is turning out to be a real critical global food supply crisis yet again, similar to Ukraine. And remember, there was about 400,000,000 people following the Ukraine war globally that we saw enter into a state of malnourishment. This means more than one year of 1,200 calories or less per day for a year, 400,000,000 people after Ukraine. So coming out of this crisis, it could be even more severe given the criticality of nitrogen based fertilizers and the shutdown of the strike. Let me make two more points on this. David Friedberg (00:46:38): You would think, okay, we'll make more nitrogen fertilizer. The facilities take at least three to five years to fix when they break, which is what just happened in Qatar. That facility got damaged, the the main facility that's being used to make fertilizer. So that is the largest producer of urea in the world That's now gonna be incapacitated for three to five years. And if you wanna build a new facility, takes about seven years. All the facilities around the world that make urea and ammonia, these nitrogen fertilizers, typically run 20 fourseven, three sixty five at full capacity. There is no downtime where you can just turn on excess production in the world. So the world is very delicate in its balance of inputs and food production outputs. The whole world has less than thirty days of food, of calories stored up. So as these kind of supply chain problems start to percolate, there's shock waves that start to get felt around the world. So it's a pretty serious crisis ahead, and it'll take a few months before it'll be fully realized. In the meantime, US farmers are getting their asses handed to them. They can't make money, and China is using this as a moment for extraordinary leverage over America and taking advantage of the situation by shutting down exports of their fertilizer and at Jason Calacanis (00:47:44): the same time not buying American production of corn. We probably need Friedberg to have some sort of resiliency here and address this like we did with pharmaceuticals, PPE, all these other things. Yeah. We should have some sort of stockpile of fertilizer. David Friedberg (00:47:59): Chamath's point is absolutely correct. Natural gas reservoirs exist around the world, and we've been loath to exploit them or develop them because of the climate change carbon risks and issues. But I think what we're realizing is that those are luxury beliefs to an extent. You can only say, let's not exploit carbon resources until you hit a shock wave like this. And then people are like, wait a second. We really do need to have these systems up and running, and we need to have excess capacity and local capacity in the system because single points of failure for the whole world's food supply is not gonna cut it anymore, particularly as the world is becoming more fragmented and multipolar and there's less US policing of the world that's gonna happen and so on. It's gonna be very critical that everyone starts to think about doubling down, not just on energy production, but some of these other critical inputs like fertilizer. And another output, just as a quick side story on nat gas production is when you pull nat gas out of the ground, that's the primary place we find helium. And helium, we're all waking up to the fact you know, we never really think about helium. We think about kids' balloons at birthday But helium goes into MRI machines. Helium goes into semiconductor manufacturing. Helium goes into mass spec machines that are used in chemical analysis with a lot of applications around the world. Helium is a critical input to medical equipment, to manufacturing equipment. And all of a sudden, a third of the world's helium coming out of Qatar is not making it out. And so we're now gonna have a helium supply shock that's gonna affect the world. So we're starting to wake up to the fact that perhaps these nat gas fields that we've allowed to kind of turn a blind eye and say, one country exploit them and let them make all the nat gas. The US is actively developing. I went down and visited that Cheniere facility in Louisiana with Doug Burgum a couple months ago, which was an amazing sight to see where we do all the LNG exporting. But The US has extraordinary nat gas reserves, so do many other places in the world that have failed to take advantage of developing them. And I think we're realizing the criticality of doing so at this moment. Jason Calacanis (00:49:58): Looking at this, I think we'll have Trump pivot extremely soon. I brought this chart up now. This will be the David Friedberg (00:50:06): fourth time we're prediction, Jay Cal? You think he's gonna wrap this up? I mean Jason Calacanis (00:50:09): He's a 100% gonna wrap this up, and I and I and I can show why. I mean, this just basically look at the history of this. You guys remember, I brought up this chart with Trump's net approval rating. And you you look at how this has changed over the three times I brought it up first time in June, then October. And, again, I'm gonna bring it up here. The stuff with ICE and, you know, the Epstein files and just going right down the line of unpopular decisions, Trump's net approval rating now has just plummeted to negative 17. This is the least popular he's ever been, and he's had to pivot here. Pam Bondi at the time we are, recording this, as I predicted on a previous episode, then Christine Noem and Pam Bondi would be fired, or in, I guess, Trump's terms, he likes to, get them a new job and give them a window seat. This is absolutely going to result in a quick pivot. Who knows what the downstream effects are, but the inflation three handle is coming back according to polymarket. Gas is over $4 a gallon. And then, you know, it's easy to mock like we did earlier these, like, no kings protests. But 8,000,000 people came out for that. That's a large number. And if you look at the poly market for what's gonna happen in the midterms, 51% chance now that the Dems take the senate, 86% that they take the house. And, you know, what you're gonna take from that is Chamath Palihapitiya (00:51:41): Wait. Sorry. Polymarket is now showing the democrats winning both houses? Jason Calacanis (00:51:46): Yeah. Pull it up, Nick. Significant chance of that. And, you know, when this happens Chamath Palihapitiya (00:51:49): How much money is being bet on that? Let's just see. Jason Calacanis (00:51:51): 51%, they take the senate. 86, they take the house, and 4 and a half Chamath Palihapitiya (00:51:56): million There's 4 and a half million dollars on this? Oh gosh. Jason Calacanis (00:52:00): Yeah. I Chamath Palihapitiya (00:52:01): tend to I tend to filter how seriously I take polymarket just based on the total quantum, but this is a big number. Jason Calacanis (00:52:08): Yeah. And and I you know, listen. I this is not me trying to dunk on Trump and my personal beliefs. I think when you lose Tucker, when you lose Megyn Kelly, when you lose Joe Rogan, you know, and people are looking at who Trump surrounded him with. There's really just two groups. You have these super highly qualified people, Besson, Mutnick, obviously, David Sacks. You got you got really highly qualified people, JD, you know, who who I think the world of. I think these people are great. But then he put some people in positions that I think weren't up to the task, Pam Bondi, Christie. I'll put Steven Miller and Cash in that as well. It's my personal belief in that case. And those people have not served him well. And they need to get this presidency back on track because what's gonna happen is we're gonna have two more years of impeachments and investigations, and the whole thing's gonna be derided. And we really need to start thinking about what who's making these decisions? Who who made this decision to go into Iran and why? Who made these decisions to have ICE go into Minnesota and why? And I think a lot of it goes back to Stephen Miller. I got mocked a bit here on the pod for, like, blaming him. But you can correlate Stephen Miller, Kristi Noem, Kash Patel, and Pam Bondi with all of the downside of this presidency and the plummeting ratings. Trump's gonna need to clear house. He's cleared out two of four. I predict to clear out the other two and get great leadership in there and turn this presidency around because, listen, this is gonna be socialism now, and AOC's gonna win. This is gonna cause massive chaos if he doesn't get out of Iran and do it soon. Just my handicapping of the situation. Hegseth, I'm not so sure. I'm not sure if I you know, what I think of him yet, but, you know, we don't have information on why Trump did this. That's going to be the next shoe to drop. David Friedberg (00:53:57): On why why he did it? Jason Calacanis (00:53:59): Freiberg, I think, know, this is the point I made the second this war happened, or military operation. Let's let's call it what Chamath Palihapitiya (00:54:07): it is. This is a war. Jason Calacanis (00:54:07): When you kill the top 100 people, it's a war. I said, I don't have the information of why he did this. Like, he might have information, Freiberg, that we don't have that made this an absolute must for us to do. But we haven't revealed that information. It hasn't explained it well to the American people. They to mark That's why the ratings are and I don't wanna make the ratings like a TV ratings. His popularity is getting crushed here. The way this was explained to Americans, and again, I'm not inserting my position here, I'm just talking about the disconnect right now, is that operation midnight hammer was supposed to have just decimated this. So why did we do this again? And we don't have the information. This is why I try to stay humble in this and say, like, what information does Trump have of that we don't have? Some people seem to think, Chamath, this was overconfidence. There's obviously this debate. Did we get baited into this by Israel and get pushed into it? And is he a Manchurian candidate, etcetera? I that's above my pay grade too. I I don't have any information on that. I'm not in the CIA. David Friedberg (00:55:10): It's hard to be an armchair critic on this stuff in both senses. Like, I think it's hard to say, hey. This guy got into doing this. Israel manipulated him into it. You know? Sorry. It's easy to say that. It's also easy to say, hey. We should go get rid of the country that's made all the nuclear weapons. Both of those are easy to say without all of the texture of the relationships and the details and what really went on. None of us know is Jason Calacanis (00:55:33): the truth. That's literally the point. You know, I've been trying to make right. It's like Yeah. How do it is the same thing with Venezuela. Like, how do we know we don't have any intelligence to map. We we're not in the CIA. We don't have any of these insights that Mossad or the Israeli intelligence services have. How do we know how this was gonna go down? And, you know, that's all gonna come out, I think, when this all gets investigated. Yeah. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:55:56): I think Trump is and has been the most consistent antiwar president of modern history. Jason Calacanis (00:56:03): Yes. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:56:04): And I think that it's fair to say that he has and has had and has demonstrated enormous restraint and has the highest bar thus far of folks for actually getting into conflict. So I do think that what Friedrich says is very important. There's just so much we don't know. And I think that he doesn't want to stain his legacy with a typical American, you know, conflict. Jason Calacanis (00:56:33): War. Yeah. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:56:33): He doesn't want that. I don't think he doesn't need to be anywhere near that. So there is obviously stuff that we don't know. I still think that there's a short term problem, which is not just the threat that Iran poses to Israel, but there's a threat that Iran poses to the rest of the Middle Eastern community. That neighborhood is a complicated place. There was an interview that MBS did on Saudi television. Nick, maybe maybe you can find it. It's in Arabic, but there's a good version of it that I saw with subtitles. And if you hear the MBS is telling of what the Iranian threat is, it's not dissimilar to how the Israelis would characterize the threat. And so I think it's important to understand that unpredictable actors should not be given an opportunity to have a cataclysmic weapon that can just completely destroy the earth as we know it. That just doesn't make sense. And I think if you can intervene to prevent that, we're now aware of the damages of what this can do to enough of a degree where there should be enough of nuclear disarmament from here on out. The six, seven, eight, nine countries that have it, okay. There's all kinds of reasons why maybe we could have remade those decisions over the intervening seventy years. Maybe there's some that we never should have let have it. The Pakistan India thing is a good example of one. But we are where we are, And I think we can all agree no more countries should incrementally get access to this thing. Jason Calacanis (00:58:08): Absolutely not. And this regime specifically believes that anybody who is not part of this specific religion needs to die and the whole of Islam needs to be reunited in order to take on anybody who's not part David Friedberg (00:58:23): their version Jason Calacanis (00:58:24): of radical Islam. Like it's a if this is a religious lunacy in that country, think everybody else should be murdered if they don't convert. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:58:33): I think it's important to say that the overwhelming majority of Sunnis and the overwhelming majority of Shias are peaceful, observant people. There are fringes in every religion. And in specifically this, I think the most important thing is to not take your word or anybody else's word. I do think it's important to listen to somebody like MBS because I think it's the lived experience of having to run a country in that neighborhood and what it means. And I think what you see is, as you're articulating, many layers of complexity that, again, I think that most of us in the West have zero appreciation for. All of this goes to, in the short term, I think that they forced themselves into a corner. I think we can go back and relitigate. Why did Obama let him out? That was a really, really stupid idea. We probably should have kept our thumb on the scale and had them close to teetering on economic insolvency. That's the only thing that has kept them in check. They veered wildly away the minute we let them out of the disarmament agreements that we had. But we are where we are. We gotta put the genie back in the bottle, and we cannot look to other countries and tolerate this idea that they also want to build the kinds of weapons that can literally destroy the face of the planet as we know it. It's a nonstarter. And then the second order effect is how do we make sure that folks that are participating in all of this broader seeds of sowing chaos, how do we hem them in, and how do we create a more reasonable world order? And I think that the second order effects, and I've said this before, kind of bring this back to China. And I think a world where it's bipolar, where it's The United States and China roughly as the two leading statesmen of the world, is probably the Nash equilibrium here. And so I think getting China in a position where they need to do a deal and remember I said this. The worst thing that could happen for China was the president delaying the summit. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:00:41): And here we are. We're now it's delayed for six weeks. It's gonna go into mid bay. If you think the Strait Of Hormuz numbers as it relates to energy prices in Europe or anywhere else are crazy, look at what's happening inside of China right now. It is a no bueno situation. And so in May, if we can reestablish a set of operating criteria that keeps normalcy in check, No more of this rapid random expansion everywhere where the Chinese are trying to build bases near us and, you know, now we have to have a point of view near them. We don't need any of that. So I think if we can use this as an opportunity to deescalate, I think we should. Jason Calacanis (01:01:24): Yeah. That's we we seem to have moved from I mean, I think this is the question. There's a a doctrine. Don't if you guys heard this one before of mowing the lawn, which is the Israelis view of Hezbollah, Hamas, and even Iran, which is just, hey, we have to take away their progress, the last 30 or 40% of their progress towards nuclear bombs, we just do that consistently, and we contain them. This has tipped over into regime change. And so I think that's the wild card that none of us can predict what happens from this point forward. And I I don't know how you leave Iran in this state if they're going to take over the the straight, and charge everybody a dollar a barrel, is that gonna be tenable? Are they gonna keep blowing stuff up? This is uncharted territory. And, yeah, and very high stakes. President Trump also reiterated The US doesn't need Middle East oil and that Europeans should go straight to the straight and just take it. He said that the straight will open naturally because, quote Chamath Palihapitiya (01:02:23): Why do they always to be liable? I why are you always focusing on the straights of hormones, Jason? Jason Calacanis (01:02:27): Why am I? Mean, you're always on the Straits Of Hormuz, I think. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:02:30): You're you're always overlooking the gaze of Hormuz as an example. Jason Calacanis (01:02:34): That's true. That and the nonbinaries of Hormuz, they all count. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:02:38): Well, why is it all about the Straits Of Hormuz all the time? Jason Calacanis (01:02:40): Listen. I don't want to get canceled here because I'm talking I don't know the pronouns to use for these straights of Hormuz, but yes, the straights in Hormuz. I don't think you're allowed to be gay in Hormuz. I think you have to keep that pretty quiet there, don't you? That was the greatest clip ever. If you don't know what we're referring to, it's a viral clip Chamath Palihapitiya (01:02:58): of It's incredible. Jason Calacanis (01:02:59): Of purple haired people. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:03:01): No. Not purple haired. This was a young Indian lady, and she we all thought the same thing. Indians are so smart. What happened to her? Jason Calacanis (01:03:10): What happened? She's the they found an Indian who didn't understand the question. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:03:17): They found the one dumb Indian. Jason Calacanis (01:03:18): Yes. Exactly. Oh god. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:03:22): It's They found her. Jason Calacanis (01:03:24): They found her. This is she's been absolutely I mean, this Isn't it a little bit homophobic that we're so focused on the straights of Homus and not the gaze of Homus? I agree. Yes. For sure. So why Chamath Palihapitiya (01:03:35): do guys Jason Calacanis (01:03:36): are willing to leave the gaze of Homus behind? I think it's just history. David Friedberg (01:03:41): Which Ivy League do you think she went to? Chamath Palihapitiya (01:03:43): Brown. Yeah. 100%. Brown or Columbia? Jason Calacanis (01:03:46): Oh, yeah. That's that's a good call. I would say Columbia. She Yeah. She might have gone to Vassar, actually. I think that would might have been her safety school. That's the best, not Borat, Bruno impersonation I've heard in a long time. So Friedberg, why are you so gay? Are you are you making your potatoes nonbinary? It was, like, literally, Bruno. You you got ten minutes, Jermath. You wanna do your Bitcoin thing, or you wanna just break? Chamath Palihapitiya (01:04:18): The Bitcoin thing was interesting because I think in the last couple of months, what we've started to see is an increasing amount of research that says that the scheduled eventuality of a quantum chip, a functional chip, is probably not twenty five or thirty years away. It's probably now in the next five to seven years, if I had to guess. And I think that because that event horizon has moved in, in these next five to seven years, for those that follow Bitcoin and care about it, my only advice on this topic is that the leaders of the Bitcoin ecosystem need to organize themselves and need to make sure that they have an answer to the question of, is this stuff quantum resistant? Because if the answer is no, they are a very visible and obvious honeypot. Now there is the answer that then a lot of the Bitcoin community gives, which is, well, everything is screwed. And my only advice is possibly. But if a nonstate actor gets a hold of quantum technology that can defeat crypto as we know it today, SHA two fifty six, you know, ECDS, like the elliptical curve stuff, the run of the mill stuff that we all rely on. A nonstate actor's incentive will first be to drain the obvious honeypots and then tell everybody that it's broken so that then everything goes to all the prices go to zero, and then they have all the money, and then they can buy stuff. That would be the sequence of events if you were a nonstate actor. So, yes, you're right. The banks get hacked. Yes, you're right. All this other stuff goes to put. But I think you first go and you exploit the obvious places, and I think crypto is the most obvious honeypot in a world where you can defeat encryption. Now in fairness, the crypto community, this was much, much earlier, had to deal with this. They had to migrate from different encryption schemes in the early parts of Bitcoin, and they were able to self organize. The difficulty here is you're talking about a big technological lift. You're talking about all the wallets being rearchitected. You're talking about all the transactional flows, all the processing nodes. These are complicated things that need to happen. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:06:40): And I would just tell the crypto community, you have five to seven years to get your in order. That's it. Jason Calacanis (01:06:45): Friedberg, quantum computing, just generally speaking, you feel it's gonna have a major impact in the short term? Do you think it's actually going to become viable in the midterm? Where do you think about it? Because it's always been 10 out, but it feels like we're making some progress. David Friedberg (01:07:04): Yeah. There's a lot that's changed. I mean, so the the primary mechanism of modern encryption standards relates to factoring primes of an integer. Discovering the prime factors of an integer would give you the ability to theoretically crack encryption. There was an algorithm that was theorized by a guy named Peter Shore. I think I talked about this on a prior episode back in 1994 called Shore's algorithm today. It's kind of the commonly well known model for how you could do this. And it's a you can watch a YouTube video on it. There's some YouTube videos that explain it pretty clearly. Takes a bit of time to understand it. And then a couple years ago, I think in 2023, there was another computer scientist named Oded Regev from NYU who published another paper that showed a faster different approach to Shor's algorithm. It was an improvement on Shor's algorithm that basically reduced the number of quantum operations required to factor a large integer significantly. So there's kind of Chamath Palihapitiya (01:08:06): We're sorry. We went from 28,000,000 of those operations down to 500,000. David Friedberg (01:08:11): Yeah. And so there's this a lot of work going on right now even before we have industrial scale quantum computers, a lot of work going on in quantum computing theory and building models and algorithms, and a lot of this is rooted in in pure mathematics and statistics and whatnot. That work is making progress in building better algorithms even before the compute comes online. And then there's the separate set of things that you can track, but, you know, the market, if you wanna trust the market, is betting that we are within spitting distance of quantum computers reaching an industrial scale at this moment. So those two things intersect at some moment in the near term where you have algorithms that are low demand, low latency, that can crack modern encryption standards, and then the computing comes online, and someone is gonna execute. The the real thing is what do you do about it? There's a whole bunch of research that's been going on for twenty plus years on quantum algorithms, quantum encryption standards. And so the to Chamath's point, these things exist. It's just a heavy lift. And so there's gonna be this heavy lift, probably, you know, pretty good business to be made in the next couple of years, and, all of the changes are gonna need to happen across all encryption standards, across the whole Internet, across how we do communications, and so on. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:09:30): In a crazy way, Freebird, crypto is in the same place as all these software socks. Meaning, if AGI and ASI are real, these software companies are not what we thought they David Friedberg (01:09:39): were. Yeah. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:09:40): If Quantum is real, a bunch of these David Friedberg (01:09:42): crypto Chamath Palihapitiya (01:09:42): projects are not what we thought they were. And so you can't have both, guys. You gotta choose. Yeah. Pick one. Jason Calacanis (01:09:50): Yeah. Everybody. This has been Chamath Palihapitiya (01:09:53): oh, hey. We listen. You know, I have an incredible EA, Jason Calacanis (01:09:57): Executive assistant. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:09:59): It's really been like you know, everybody talks about, like, agents, agents, agents, agents. And this was the pre agent agent. You know, my my EAs averaged around 188 to 200 k a year. Then Jason Calacanis (01:10:15): Right now, their heads are exploding in Middle America. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:10:18): Let's tell the truth. I was paying a 188 to $200,000 a year. They were wonderful. Okay? Jason Calacanis (01:10:22): Right. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:10:24): And then I Jason was like, try this try this thing called Athena. Athena. Athena. I'm like, what is it? So I call the guys, and they're like, yeah. We have these really well trained folks. They're like geniuses that work in The Philippines. It's 3,000 a month, and we're building all this tooling. And so as all these agents get better and all these AIs get better, they'll get the advantage of that. I said, okay. I'll give it a try. This is the first time I've had a male assistant. His name is Lei. Lei's fabulous. He's a math grad. Math and computer science in The Philippines. Okay? And he's excellent. I love Lei too. Somebody just put it in the chat. I love Lei. From Nick. Nick, you Jason Calacanis (01:11:01): love Lei. Come to NBC this fall. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:11:04): These guys are incredible. They do everything for me. It's like the most incredible hack and arbitrage I've ever seen. Then now then I can direct a bonus delay at the end of the year, which is great because then it allows me to feel like I'm giving him really, you know, good support. He works my hours from The Philippines. Have not looked back. Go Athena. Jason Calacanis (01:11:27): Yeah. That's great. I use it as well. I was the the first investor. You were the first you Chamath Palihapitiya (01:11:31): were the how many Athenas you have? One or two? I have one. Two for a second one. Jason Calacanis (01:11:36): And then that person moved on. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:11:39): You split it between, like, work and personal or no? Jason Calacanis (01:11:42): Yeah. It's work and personal. As an example, like, there's an incredible bakery where I live, like, out in Dripping Springs called Abby Jane Bakery. They don't take orders. But every Thursday, my Athena assistant calls at 8AM, asks them what's on the menu because they change the menu every week. Stop it. Stop Stop it. They sell me the menu. I order the bakeries, and then he calls an Uber courier to pick it up and drop it off because they're not on DoorDash or Uber Eats. Just a stupid example of something that made our lives incredible to have the best bakery in all of Austin in the house every weekend for the girls and everything. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:12:19): Everyday problems. David Friedberg (01:12:20): Yeah. Well Everyday problem. Jason Calacanis (01:12:21): Anyway, it's a it's a silly example. But I was having to go make that run. And I did it every, like, fourth or fifth week as a treat. Now it's every week. So you just look at what you're doing. The other thing we're doing is they've been able to we we had Americans who are researchers sorting through the inbound applications from founders. We were able to put an Athena assistant on that and then define it. And then we they're learning how to use OpenClaw. So the Athena OpenClaw merger is kinda happening in real time. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:12:51): Yeah. No. I have I have Lei doing a bunch of advanced tasks that I typically wouldn't give to my EA, and then he also deals with sort of just the more practical day to day tasks, scheduling, all that stuff. Anyways, it's been it's been an incredible eye opening thing because it sets a very good example where, you know, you can be cost effective and still get your work done. And it was really bothering me actually because, like, the the amount of cost inflation for that role because I don't think I've ever needed an EA. I'll just be honest. I'm gonna put it out there. I think I've always needed an AA. And I would title them differently, and sometimes I'll you know, the I I mean, I've said this before, but, like, you know, even, like, roles like chief of staff, they just don't make sense. Like, the chief of staff should be the second most powerful person in the world because they work for the president of The United States. Yeah. Everybody else should not have a chief of staff, in my opinion. Okay? Jason Calacanis (01:13:40): It's a it's a major unlock. And the problem is we have the lowest unemployment of our lifetimes, and it's just people don't wanna take the EA or the administrative assistant position in America. They just don't. There's they wanna do something higher up the stack, but the people in The Philippines, you know, they do want that job. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:13:56): Lei's crushing. I love Lei. Jason Calacanis (01:13:58): RJ is my guy. And, yeah. David Friedberg (01:14:01): First time guy too? I got Jason Calacanis (01:14:02): a guy too, and he is also very technical. So, anyway, shout out to Athena. Shout out to Athena. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:14:08): Thank you, guys. Thank you, Athena. Jason Calacanis (01:14:09): Yeah. Friedberg, I I know you're making great progress. You showed me some pictures of potatoes from O'Halo. Yeah. How's that going? David Friedberg (01:14:18): Shipping seed this week to farmers all over North America, so we're getting going. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:14:22): Are you sending seed to our friend Roger the dirt farmer? David Friedberg (01:14:25): He is. His son. Yeah. He's gonna play Chamath Palihapitiya (01:14:27): That's so great. Jason Calacanis (01:14:28): Dirt Roger? Yeah. I love it. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:14:31): Roger, the dirt farmer, is a phenomenal poker player. He and Keating often play in the game together. David Friedberg (01:14:35): Uh-huh. How'd they do? Couple weeks ago, they came up. Crushed. Came and ran at me the next day. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:14:39): Both of those two goofballs ran over the game. It's so frustrating. It's frustrating playing with Keating. Roger is much more of a tag, you know, a tight aggressive player. So it's no picnic. There's no free lunch when both of those two guys are in the game. And then on top of that, you know, Hellmuth, Koon, Robo it's like it's not a big game. It's murder's room. Jason Calacanis (01:14:58): I got I made a late trip to the valley. I'm like, hey, Chamath. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:15:01): Oh, Jason, take it. Jason Calacanis (01:15:02): I get to play. Chamath's like, I got some bad news for you. You're no longer on the list, and I filled the game up plus two. So I squeak into the game. I've run up a quick 20, 20 5 dime skis, and then Hellmuth, passive aggressive Hellmuth, who who cannot handle the fact that I'm more famous than him now. It's just totally sweet, Jim, that Shammoth and I and you, Ray Burke, are so much more famous than him. It's broken his brain. He's like, okay. A car dealer car dealer, you're supposed to have a seat and Jay Cal doesn't. And I literally just doubled up at that point. And Shammoth's like, okay. I guess you could book the win, Jay Cal. Because, you know, it's like poor taste to double up and then leave. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:15:44): How much are you in? $40.50 k? Jason Calacanis (01:15:46): It was only, like, 25 times. It was, you know, it's like I used my why. Yeah. Yeah. Hey, Chamath. We're here at the end of the show. I just wanted to make sure people know that the liquidity event that we're hosting, you can go to allin.com/events, has sold out, and we've started a wait list. So this is the quickest we've ever sold out. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:16:04): I asked Kimber and Lisa to try to find another 100 seats. I think there's, like, $7,700,000,000,000 of money that want to attend. We can't get everybody in, so we're trying to get everybody together. We announced Bill Ackman and Andre Karpathy last week. Jason Calacanis (01:16:21): Incredible. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:16:22): We're gonna do an Ira's own like pitch competition. There's, like, four whiz bang hot fund managers. Jason Calacanis (01:16:30): What that is for folks who don't know? Yeah. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:16:31): I know a bunch of these guys, but four of them in particular are running super hot right now. Like, taking 50,000,000, run it up to a billion to 3,000,000,000. They're just ripping. And, they're gonna go on stage, and they're gonna give us their best ideas pitch. And the three of us, plus, I think, as many of the guests that can do it, will vote. And then maybe we can even publish these ideas so that folks can can try to follow them. Jason Calacanis (01:16:57): They can vet them. Right? It's like a really brave thing to do to get on stage and say, hey. I'm making this bet. David Friedberg (01:17:02): Like, that's like great. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:17:03): I did it four times. Yeah. I mean, I just spanked it, but hopefully these guys can do the same thing. But listen. We have a natural resources pitch. We have something in health care. We have something in tech. We have something in Genius. It's great. It's like all the big category. We have something in crypto. So it's you're gonna get every shade of every whippy big alpha market. Jason Calacanis (01:17:25): By the way, you created a bit of a storm on the interwebs with your Tau mentioned in the Jensen interview. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:17:32): I just asked Jensen a question. I'm not long Tau. He redirected it to something which is folding at home, which is I think if you don't know it, you should look it up, but it's how you can allocate compute to helping solve health problems. The point is these open source projects or these distributed compute projects are the future. The real question is what is the architecture and the incentives? None of us knows that. Yeah. But, man, I think it's so important. And then all these goons Jason Calacanis (01:17:55): Went crazy. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:17:56): Went crazy. Jason Calacanis (01:17:58): Well, I mean, the reason is because I did place a bet on DAO. Like, a couple of weeks ago. I went public with, hey. Yeah. I've got a small bet here because I think these subnets are fascinating. You're from Maxine. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:18:09): You're a Tau Maxine. Jason Calacanis (01:18:09): I mean, it's like I I might be 5 or $600,000. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:18:13): It's a tiny bet. You're syndicate maxing. Jason Calacanis (01:18:15): No. I did it myself. I did it myself. I made a small bet on television because I watched exactly Chamath Palihapitiya (01:18:21): This retard is syndicate maxing. Jason Calacanis (01:18:23): I'm it's not I'm not retard maxing here, but I am certainly not doing any introspection. I am just doing deals on the great founders and companies. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:18:31): Andreessen has been rage tweeting about this guy that he watches Jason Calacanis (01:18:36): A genius. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:18:36): Who posts these videos about retard maxing. Yes. I watched the videos. It's incredible. This guy is what is the guy's name? I don't know what the guy's David Friedberg (01:18:44): name is. Jason Calacanis (01:18:44): He goes on his back deck. He's got a Weber grill. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:18:47): Smoking a cigar. Jason Calacanis (01:18:48): Pops out a cigar, and he says, listen. It doesn't matter. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:18:51): Should be the most incredible contribution in your life. The most incredible contribution Andreessen may be making to culture and society in America. Not the browser. He found this guy. I encourage you Nick, find the video, Chris. Post the links. This guy is incredible. Jason Calacanis (01:19:06): Because you're overthinking it, folks. Enjoy your life and work hard and don't think it through. Because look what happened to Freiberg. He started salinating. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:19:17): Love you, boys. Jason Calacanis (01:19:18): Don't ruminate. Just go sell software and go make better potatoes, Freeburg. No more ruminating and therapy for you, Freeburg. Come on the program anytime, Mark and Juicy. It'll be charged back with us here on Chamath Palihapitiya (01:19:29): the all in five. Love you, boys. Bye now. Jason Calacanis (01:19:45): Bye. Chamath Palihapitiya (01:20:03): We should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy because they're all just useless. It's like it's like sexual tension that they just need to release somehow. Jason Calacanis (01:20:16): Where did you get Mercy's artifact? I'm doing all in.