嘉宾访谈·中文精读

比尔·阿克曼:市场正在忽略什么

Bill Ackman: Here's What the Market is MISSING

Bill Ackman 分享二十年投资哲学的演变,谈 AI 对企业的机遇与组合威胁、市场预测的橡皮筋效应、创始人主导公司,以及打造下一个伯克希尔。

官方音频00:00 / --:--

本期章节点时间可跳到音频对应位置

  1. 0:00比尔·阿克曼做客节目!
  2. 0:30投资理念的演变:20 年间发生了什么变化?
  3. 4:40AI:创业的最佳时代,也是投资组合的重大威胁
  4. 7:50预测市场走势,“橡皮筋效应”
  5. 16:00持有创始人领导的公司
  6. 19:30打造下一个伯克希尔·哈撒韦
中文精读由 AI 基于原始节目改写,非官方翻译,可能存在偏差或错误;观点归属与表述以原音频与官方文稿为准。说明

Bill Ackman 在 All-In 上说了一句大概会被反复引用的话。他看完 OpenAI 首席财务官萨拉·弗莱尔(Sarah Friar)在另一场对谈里的表现,对 OpenAI 更看多了,甚至觉得她应该去当 OpenAI 的 CEO,而萨姆·奥特曼(Sam Altman)应该去当董事长。弗里德伯格补了一句,他本来最想问弗莱尔的问题是"在奥特曼手下工作是什么感觉",可惜没排上。

玩笑归玩笑,这期节目的主角是阿克曼(Bill Ackman)本人。潘兴广场(Pershing Square)的创始人兼 CEO,过去二十年最出名的维权投资者之一,这次被 All-In 四位主持人请来聊了半个多小时,从投资哲学的演变,一直聊到他想亲手做的"下一个伯克希尔·哈撒韦"。

二十年来最大的变化:开始给"生意质量"定价

弗里德伯格的开场问题很直接:你过去是买进、施压、退出,现在却在讲永久持有,投资哲学是不是变了?

阿克曼说,最大的变化是对"生意质量"的重视。他用的词是长期、耐用、受保护、不可被颠覆的增长。年轻时资金规模小、流动性要求高,不必想那么远;当你变成一个高度集中、体量巨大的投资者,才会明白持久增长才是最关键的变量。

他补了一句:自己在"维权"这件事上从没像现在这么激进,只是战场从公司治理挪到了推特上。

为什么?他讲了潘兴广场早年的一桩生意。他们买下温蒂汉堡(Wendy's)10% 的股份,逻辑简单得不能再简单:温蒂旗下的 Tim Hortons,一家加拿大咖啡甜甜圈连锁,本身的价值就超过整个温蒂。买下来,把 Tim Hortons 分拆出去,钱就翻倍。结果他给 CEO 打电话,对方不回;再打,还是不回。最后他们找到在百仕通(Blackstone)工作的朋友,苏世民(Steve Schwarzman)同意为"分拆 Tim Hortons 之后温蒂值多少钱"出一份公允意见书,公开发布。六周后,Tim Hortons 真的被分拆了。

那个 CEO 后来终于回了电话,还道了谢。他已经被解雇了,但因为拿到了巨额离职补偿,心情很好。

阿克曼说,那时候没人认识他们,只能靠开会演讲、上 CNBC。二十年后,标普 500 的 CEO 他几乎全认识,要么直接认识,要么隔一个人就能搭上。今天他们买进一家公司,对方有时会主动发推说"欢迎潘兴广场成为股东"。

他也解释了"大股东进董事会"到底值什么。上市公司的问题是市场和分析师的时间尺度太短,CEO 却要在三五年甚至几十年的维度上做决策,同时还得应付别人追问二季度的税率。董事会上坐着一个大股东,CEO 可以在把想法抛给公众之前先私下试探;大股东也可以公开表态支持一个短期会压利润的动作。

他顺带点了句:最好的投资,往往是你根本不需要进董事会、不需要做任何事的那些。

AI 让"被颠覆的概率"大幅上升,也让优质资产被落下

查马斯问得很干脆:你们算不算 AI 的投资人?

阿克曼说,他们目前持有微软、Meta 和亚马逊。他的判断是,在今天的市场里,你要么直接或间接地投了 AI,要么 AI 就是你的威胁,没有第三种可能。

作为一个长期集中投资者,他认为最难也最重要的工作是判断颠覆风险:两个斯坦福的学生,一男一女,在一个车库里,能做出什么来。

"这是历史上最好的创业时代。算力几乎是无限的,资本几乎是无限的,人才也极其充足。这也就意味着,你被颠覆的概率已经大幅上升。"(Bill Ackman)

查马斯接着追问:那你现在会往混乱里冲,还是退到更耐用、更不容易被 AI 颠覆的资产上去?

阿克曼给的答案是他对市场的一贯观察:资金的眼睛永远盯着"新新事物"。今天的新新事物是芯片、半导体和能源,短期资本往那里涌,结果就是真正高质量的资产被落在后面。他说自己在 2000 年那场泡沫里在场,他不认为今天完全一样,但确实有相似之处:当年所有人都在兴奋互联网股票,伯克希尔·哈撒韦跌到了它历史上最低的估值,因为大家觉得那是"旧东西"。他觉得今天亚马逊、Meta、微软身上正在发生类似的事。查马斯直接问"所以在你眼里它们被低估了",阿克曼回答:"是的。"

关于"SaaS 大屠杀",他的态度是一个公司一个公司地看。他更担心 Salesforce 这类公司,而不是那些按席位收几十美元的平台。如果一家软件公司靠一个小众产品向客户收三万美元一年,这种近乎垄断的定价在今天是最危险的;而微软的客户平均也许只付 50 美元一个席位,这样的平台反而值更多钱。他给所有软件公司的建议只有一句:尽可能把自己 AI 化。

橡皮筋效应:估值是拴住市场的绳子

查马斯翻出 2020 年 3 月那段往事:阿克曼上 CNBC 拍桌子,市场先暴跌,然后他站在了正确的那一边;一两个月前,他又公开说市场会走得更高。

阿克曼先讲自己的性格。他高中年鉴上同学给他的评语是"最啰嗦的人",旁边还留着一句:"闭着的嘴不会踩到脚。"他说自己一直有把真话说出来的冲动。

回到 2020 年 3 月,动机并不复杂:他认为美国需要一个两周的暂停,让病毒降温、让医院喘口气,而当时总统还没这么做。他上电视,是想让特朗普看到,告诉他只要关两周,病毒会过去,股票估值极度便宜,处理得好会赚很多钱,而他自己在买。

他用来描述估值的比喻是橡皮筋:估值是拴住市场的绳子,涨得太高就是橡皮筋被拉长,早晚弹回来;反过来也一样,股票跌得太便宜时,橡皮筋在往上拉估值。有些时刻,把它喊出来本身就能让人产生一次心理重置。

"估值就像拴住市场的一根绳子。拉得太高,这根橡皮筋迟早会弹回来;反过来,股票跌得太便宜的时候,橡皮筋是在往上拉估值的。"(Bill Ackman)

至于最近这一次,理由简单到有点无聊:大量真正高质量的公司,股票便宜得离谱。他判断便宜的算法很实在:把这笔金融资产在其存续期内能产生的现金折成现值,再和市价对照。

怎么给 SpaceX、Anthropic 这类公司定价

杰森提到几家即将上市的公司,还有 Palantir 这种已经被大众文化、subreddit 广告投放和散户资金包围的标的:100 倍收入、150 倍收入,怎么可能用基本面来定价?

阿克曼的回答是,SpaceX 要用风险投资的方式去投,而不是用二级市场的方式。他引用商学院教授教给他的四件事:人、机会、背景、交易条款。SpaceX 的人和机会都是"一档里的唯一",背景也极好,他说替蓝色起源感到遗憾,但这对 SpaceX 无害。难的是最后一条,也就是价格。假设上市时是 1.75 万亿美元,那就要往后想五年,星链会变成什么样子,它的轨迹是什么。SpaceX 在低成本发射上接近垄断,而这件事在 AI 时代会越来越重要:今天模型晚发一两个月,代价就很大。

他承认自己还没算过这笔账,但他已经投了 X,也通过一个 SPV 投了 xAI。至于 SpaceX,是罗恩·巴伦(Ron Baron)劝他投的,他也就投了。他说自己当然希望结果好。

Anthropic、OpenAI、Palantir 在他眼里同样属于风险投资,只是这几家已经走到了 D 轮、E 轮,早过了种子期和 A 轮,也已经证明了它们能产生可观的收入。他特别提到弗莱尔解释"他们如何决定投入资本"的那段话很有想法,而这条信息恰恰是他从未从 OpenAI 那里听到过的。他说如果他是 OpenAI,就会主动把这件事讲清楚,因为从外面看,这家公司的商业模式相当有意思:做出的资本承诺远远超过收入,而这件事的难度系数相当高。

大企业用 AI,阿克曼说他还没看到成功案例

萨克斯问的是另一件事:你在那些财富 500 强董事会上看到的 CEO,到底怎么看待 AI?是在做试点,在搞转型项目,还是觉得"这事跟我们关系不大,以后再说"?

阿克曼说,今天美国的每一位 CEO 都在问自己:我怎么用 AI,它怎么改变我的生意,它怎么威胁我。他们需要找到一个内部推动者,有时候还得从外面挖人。在他们担心的事情清单上,AI 大概率排第一位,既是机会也是威胁。如果自己不当回事,董事会每次开会第一个问题就会问到这个。

但如果问有没有看到真正的成果,他的回答很坦率:目前还没看到多少。他拿潘兴广场自己举例,一家很小的公司,第一个用例在法务,以及所谓合规、后台这一类职能上。他的判断是,大企业有效使用 AI 这件事,现在还处在非常、非常早期的阶段。

这个回答正好接上萨克斯和查马斯之前的讨论:麦肯锡的研究说 95% 的企业 AI 项目失败,查马斯一直在讲很多企业根本不知道该怎么部署 AI;硅谷眼下最时髦的职位叫"前置部署工程师"(forward deployed engineer),干的是 IT 顾问的活,负责把 AI 的承诺和实际的 ROI 之间的缺口填上。

创始人主导的公司,赢在"不怕被开除"

弗里德伯格提了一个论点:风险投资的本质,是在给创始人以及他"在变化的环境中重新指挥组织"的能力定价。所以创始人还在位的公司,往往能持续做出激烈决策,并在长期跑赢。

阿克曼的回答是"你说得完全对"。他给了一组对比:标普 500 的 CEO 平均在位大约三到四点五年,薪酬结构偏向短期,通常也没有大额股权;而创始人的整个生命和声誉都押在这家公司上,不会再有下一份工作,他必须让它成。在董事会上,创始人要么握着大票仓,要么握着巨额经济利益,天然拥有更大的话语权。潘兴广场进董事会时,常常是最大的非指数基金股东,这种位置本身就带来不成比例的影响力。把这两件事叠在一起,就是创始人 CEO 的优势。

他还补了一个更基本的条件:能走到今天的成功创始人,必然做过很多艰难且事后被证明正确的决定,否则根本到不了这个位置。扎克伯格买 Instagram、买 WhatsApp 时,外界都觉得价格离谱,WhatsApp 当时只有 19 个员工却花了十亿美元级别;但做对足够多次之后,你才有资本去做下一次。

弗里德伯格接着问,这是不是和本·格雷厄姆(Ben Graham)的模型相冲突?阿克曼说格雷厄姆最重要的贡献是那句话:股票凭证代表的是对一门生意的权益,不只是纸。但他当年投的主要是清算价值,那个时代没有 EDGAR 系统,想看一份 10-K 得跑到公司总部去,很多股票的市值低于账上的现金。格雷厄姆自己赚到的大部分钱,其实来自 GEICO 这样一笔投资。

下一个伯克希尔:从一座小城市开始

杰森把话题引向霍华德·休斯(Howard Hughes)和"伯克希尔 2.0"。

阿克曼先讲了一本书,大意是《伯克希尔·哈撒韦的财务史》,作者把巴菲特六十年来每一笔交易的申报文件都翻了一遍。结论是,伯克希尔创造的大部分价值,来自对保险业务的持有。

保险公司有两个工作:一是承保,收保费、承担未来的赔付义务;二是把提前收到的这笔钱投出去。绝大多数保险公司只盯着资产负债表的负债端,巴菲特是第一个真正把重心放在资产端的人。负债端管好、资产端投好,就能造出一台庞大的、能复利、又省税的机器。

那为什么别人不做?阿克曼的解释很实在:如果你真的很会投资,你会去对冲基金、去富达、去惠灵顿,而不会去一家保险公司。保险公司招募投资人才的天然能力非常有限。巴菲特之所以成立,是因为他持有公司一半的股份,而且他自己就是那个优秀的投资人。

接下来是他正在做的事。霍华德·休斯是他从通用成长(General Growth)破产案里拆出来的资产,本质上是几座小城市。比如拉斯维加斯旁边的 Summerlin,2.6 万英亩土地,商业用地、住宅用地全在自己手上,把地块卖给房屋建筑商,再自己建市中心和楼宇。这套模式和尔湾公司(Irvine Company)很像,唐纳德·布伦(Donald Bren)靠经营一座小城市,积累起大约一千亿美元的个人财富。

问题在于时间尺度是几十年,而不是几个季度,华尔街从来不在乎,这家公司长期以巨大的折价交易。所以阿克曼的思路是:不再把经营现金流全部投回房地产,而是在接下来一周左右的时间里,把现金全部投向保险业务。他要在这里搭一台复利机器,做五十年。

他引用巴菲特的做法:把百分之百的保险浮存金放在短期国债里,不在保单持有人的钱上冒险;把保险公司百分之百的股东权益投进普通股。霍华德·休斯目前市值大约 40 亿美元,目标是在未来某一天做成万亿美元级别的公司。他还提到巴菲特另一个做得好的地方:很长时间里从不增发股票,起步时是一百万股,今天仍然大致是这个量级。

查马斯问,这会不会是优秀管理人的未来形态,而不是去做多空基金。阿克曼说这条路很难走,因为它要求你控制一家上市公司,还要求你不抱"快速致富"的心态;想快速致富,去 Citadel 或 Millennium 更容易。

弗里德伯格追问,为什么一定要是上市公司?阿克曼承认可以不是。他们的路径其实是个意外:当年买的是通用成长这家正在破产的公司的股票,市值从 200 亿美元跌到 1 亿美元,他们在约 2 亿美元的市值水平买下了 27% 的股份,公司背着 270 亿美元债务。他们的判断是资产价值高于负债,于是做了第一例让原股东保留权益的重组。两年后公司走出破产保护,股价从 34 美分涨到 34 美元。分拆出来的霍华德·休斯,在当时只是分析师不喜欢的"垃圾资产",属于顺手为之。十五年过去,这块资产并没创造多少价值。

核心逻辑是:一家公司的股票要涨,它赚到的回报必须超过它的资本成本。埃隆在这件事上做得极好,SpaceX 如果以 1.75 万亿美元上市,可能是世界历史上股权资本成本最低的一次发行。而霍华德·休斯因为是房地产、是开发、是土地持有,市场认定它的资本成本很高,而房地产能赚到的回报有限。所以他们的动作是重新配置这些地产资产,把公司改造成一门回报率高得多的生意。

名气、社交媒体,以及"股价越高公司越值钱"

查马斯问,最近几年你变得极其有名,这种名气怎么改变了市场的运行方式。

阿克曼不认为市场因为他的粉丝增长而变了。他点了一个更典型的例子:GameStop 的瑞安·科恩(Ryan Cohen)。当一只股票因为人格魅力和"感觉"就能聚起一支信徒大军、交易在远高于其价值的位置上时,那才是真正的市场变化。

他讲了一个流动性和估值之间的循环:股价越高,公司本身就越值钱。听着像同义反复,其实不然,因为更高的估值降低了资本成本,带来更大的灵活性,让你能发股、融资、收购别的公司。他把埃隆当成最好的例子,说潘兴广场完全没利用过这一点,也许应该用一下。埃隆建立起一支由信徒构成的大军,而这正是特斯拉能够被建成的原因。

想跟着 Ackman 下注,有三条路

查马斯在收尾时问了个很直接的问题:如果我们想最大程度地和 Bill Ackman 站在一起,是当潘兴广场的 LP,还是直接去市场里买?

阿克曼给了三条路,他说这三条路会通向不同的结果。

第一条是 Pershing Square 这家管理公司本身。它从三只永久资本工具上收取管理费,本质上是对这些实体复利的一份"版税",而且没有资本开支。赚到的钱几乎全部分掉,规模跟着底层资产一起复合增长。他说,二十二年前投一块钱,扣掉所有费用后变成了 27 到 28 倍;如果按这家上市工具现在的费率来收,这个数字会到四十多倍。现在这个公开工具的费率只有 2%,伦敦那只有业绩费。如果按历史复合速度继续,二十二年后管理规模会是现在的 35 倍,从 250 亿美元走向接近一万亿美元,而且不需要多雇一个人,不需要多花一块钱在管理费用上。

第二条是 PSUS,持有一篮子他们最好的想法,目前相对现金价值有 18% 的折价。

第三条是 霍华德·休斯,前提是你相信他们能把它做成下一个伯克希尔·哈撒韦。

节目最后是一段关于推特的笑话。杰森说他的超长推文已经被做成了梗,还有一个一英尺高的 iPhone 充气服万圣节造型。阿克曼承认自己所有内容都亲手写,只有那条惹上法律麻烦的推文给公关和律师看过,但他只给了几分钟,因为当时太兴奋了。他最后说了一句真心话:能把自己的观点说出去,按一个按钮就触达两百万人,是一件非常强大的事。

整期节目里最值得留下来的一句,可能是他对当下的那个判断:这是历史上最好的创业时代,也是持有股票时最需要重新做功课的时刻。前者让新公司层出不穷,后者让老公司的安全边际变得可疑。

  • 当短期资本全部涌向芯片、半导体和能源这些"新新事物"时,被冷落的成熟平台往往出现估值洼地。判断标准是这家公司未来能产生多少现金流,而不是叙事热度。微软、Meta、亚马逊这类公司眼下就被阿克曼归进这一栏。
  • 如果你在做软件生意,优先把 AI 嵌进产品本身,而不是当成一个附加模块。靠小众功能收三万美元年费、近乎垄断定价的公司,是这一轮最危险的群体。
  • 判断一家公司能不能穿越技术变革,先看是不是创始人主导,再看创始人在董事会里有没有真实的投票权和股权。职业经理人的平均任期只有三到四点五年,这个时间尺度不足以支撑一次彻底的自我改造。
  • 企业部署 AI,别从"全面转型"开始。先找法务、合规、后台这类边界清晰、结果可度量的场景,跑出可验证的成果再扩。麦肯锡说的 95% 失败率,大多死在第一步的野心过大。
  • 个人品牌和公司估值有同构关系:更高的股价降低公司的资本成本,更强的叙事能力降低你融资、招人和合作的门槛,而叙事能力完全可以主动经营。
  • 三条投资路径对应三种完全不同的赌注:赌一家收管理费的平台能持续复利(Pershing Square)、赌一篮子持仓的打折空间能收敛(PSUS)、赌一块低回报资产能被改造成复利机器(Howard Hughes)。下手之前先想清楚自己赌的是哪一件,别把三种逻辑混成一笔钱。
文稿来自 All-In 官网(allin.com)发布的官方 Transcript,说话人按官网分轨数据标注,个别段落可能张冠李戴。
Bill Ackman (00:00:00): One of the most provocative and interesting investors in the country. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:00:04): A legendary activist investor. Pershing Square CEO and founder, Bill Ackman. Bill Ackman (00:00:10): Taking a short position and going public with it is a pretty serious business. Interestingly, Interestingly, some of the best businesses in the world are trading at the lowest multiples. We're kind of the rebirth of the closed end investment company universe. Jason Calacanis (00:00:22): What did you think of Zara, the CEO of OpenAI? I'm sorry, CFO. Felt like the CEO. Bill Ackman (00:00:28): Yeah. I was Stop with that stuff. Actually, I was super impressed. Made me a lot more bullish on OpenAI. And I thought Right? I thought she should be CEO of OpenAI. Jason Calacanis (00:00:39): That's what I thought. Bill Ackman (00:00:40): I think Sam should be chair. Think it's There much was David Friedberg (00:00:43): a question I wanted to ask her that we didn't get time, which was what's it like working with Sam? Jason Calacanis (00:00:47): I mean, that could have been like Probably super three hours of a documentary. I wanted to David Friedberg (00:00:52): kick this off. So, thank you so much for being here. We've tried a number of times to get you to all in, and it's great to to finally have you. You obviously are a legend that doesn't need much of an introduction. Lately, in the last number of, call it years or months or quarters or what have you, it seems like your investment philosophy may be changing. Your model, where you've been activist and you've entered positions and exited positions and lately you've talked a lot about more kind of permanent long term holdings. Would love to hear a little bit about if that is actually a change and how your evolution and your investment model has kind of changed over time. Bill Ackman (00:01:28): Sure. So I would say the biggest change over time is an appreciation for the importance of what we call business quality. Long term, durable, protected, non disruptable growth. I would say early days, you're smaller, more liquid investor. You don't have to think as long term as you become a bigger concentrated investor. And over time, you learn the importance of durable kind of growth. That's the most important factor. I would say I'm as activist as I've ever been, but more of it's on Twitter than than I would say in the corporate context. And the reason for that is when I started in Pershing Square, no one sort of knew who we were. And so I actually one of our first investments was Wendy's International. Wendy's own Tim Hortons, the Canadian coffee and doughnut chain. And the value of Tim Hortons was more than the entire value of Wendy's. So we had this very simple idea, buy Wendy's, spin off Tim Hortons, double our money. And we bought 10% of the company and I called the CEO and he didn't return my call. And I called him again, he didn't return my call. I literally couldn't get a return phone call at the beginning. So we actually called a friend who worked at Blackstone and Steve Schwarzman agreed to write a fairness opinion on what Wendy's would be worth if we spun off Tim Hortons. We kind of mailed it in and filed it publicly and six weeks later they spun off Wow. Tim Hortons. And then the CEO finally called me back and he thanked me. And he had gotten fired and but he thanked me because he had a huge exit package and he was very happy. But So in the beginning, we couldn't get a return phone call, so we had to and we were small. So we had to go to a conference and we had to do presentations and go on CNBC. What happens over time is you join boards of directors, become known as an investor. We're kind of a constructive shareholder. Bill Ackman (00:03:17): I know pretty much every CEO in S and P 500 either directly or one person removed. And, you know, maybe I age I've aged a bit, but you build kind of a reputation. And today, we buy a stake in a company. Sometimes they'll put out a tweet saying, you know, we welcome Pershing Square as a shareholder, but they opened the door for us. You know, in the beginning, we had to bang down the door and today So we we get very deeply involved in our companies if it's needed. Other companies we own, there's no nothing for us to do, be to, you know, just clap. David Friedberg (00:03:47): You are you are considered a value add investor at Chamath Palihapitiya (00:03:49): this point? Bill Ackman (00:03:50): Yeah. But we only wanna add value. The conversation last night was kind of an interesting one. You know, the best investments are one where you don't need to join the board and do anything. David Friedberg (00:03:57): Well, that may be in a startup, but in a mature business, it may be Bill Ackman (00:04:00): No. I think in the public company context, one of the valuable things we can do, the problem of being a public company today is kind of the very short term nature of markets, analysts, etcetera. And obviously to run a business, a business is a good one, it's a forever thing. And you wanna make decisions in the context of decades sometimes or certainly three, five years. And how can you do that when someone's asking about the tax rate in the second quarter? And having a big shareholder on the board, you can kind of test ideas out with the big shareholder before you expose them to the public, or the big shareholder can say, I'm supportive of this initiative even though it's gonna hurt earnings in the next few quarters, is a helpful thing. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:04:38): I just wanna connect this last conversation with Sarah to this. Are you an investor in the AI complex? And how do you underwrite business model quality from what you see on the outside in in the entire complex? Bill Ackman (00:04:52): I mean, effectively, we're an investor. We're actually, today, own Microsoft, we own Meta, we own Amazon. Actually, think you're either directly or indirectly, you're invested in AI. Yeah. Or it's a threat. So you have to you have to understand it. How do I think about AI in a business model context? Chamath Palihapitiya (00:05:08): Yeah. Business model quality. Bill Ackman (00:05:09): When you're a concentrated investor or investor generally, and you're long term investor, the most important and most challenging thing to do is determine what's the risk of disruption. What's the risk of two guys, two women from Stanford in a garage, coming up with something. That risk I think has gone up dramatically. This is the greatest era in history just to build a business. There's unlimited access to compute, certainly for a startup, unlimited access to capital, and a lot of incredible talent, which means that the probability of your being disrupted has gone up enormously. So, the hardest thing you have to do as an investor is understand, and that's really where we spend most of What's our Chamath Palihapitiya (00:05:50): your tendency in a moment like this then? Do you swing towards the chaos or do you reposition to things that are maybe more durable and defensible from AI where the disruptability is less? Bill Ackman (00:06:01): What's interesting about markets is people always bring their eye to the new new thing. And the new new thing is sort of chips and semiconductors and energy. And that's where the shorter term capital is going. What tends to happen is really high quality things get left behind. And the same thing really happened, I was there in 2000, in that sort of bubble, is different, I'm not saying this is But there's some analogies. And the analogies are people got excited about internet stocks and Berkshire Hathaway traded at the lowest valuation I think it ever traded out in its history as people said, okay, that's all old stuff. I think a similar thing is happening today sense in to Amazon and Meta, Microsoft. Jason Calacanis (00:06:45): Those are the ones that Bill Ackman (00:06:46): These old fashioned companies in kind of this Chamath Palihapitiya (00:06:49): Oh, yeah. Bill Ackman (00:06:49): The OpenAI So, they're undervalued in your mind? Yes. Jason Calacanis (00:06:53): What else is undervalued? David Friedberg (00:06:54): What about the SaaS apocalypse? So, is it oversold at this point? Bill Ackman (00:06:58): Again, I think it's a careful analysis. I worry more about a Salesforce than I do about your kind of I think you gotta do the work. I think it's one company at a time. But I think if you're a software company today, you have to be as AI enabled as you can. Think there have been sort of monopolistic type profit taking off of customers when someone had a kind of a niche software product, they're charging, you know, 30,000 a year or something like this. I think those companies are really at risk. Microsoft, when the average customer is paying, I don't know, $50 a seat or some small number, that platform is worth a lot more Chamath Palihapitiya (00:07:36): and I there's less at want to go back to COVID because you had an incredibly viral moment where you were on CNBC at that moment and you pounded the table and you said, this is what's going to happen. And literally, the market just ripped and you you were well, first it went traded massively down. You were right on that side of the trade, and then you were on the right side of the trade when it ripped back up. And then I think it was maybe a month or two ago, I think publicly you basically pounded the table and said, this market's going way higher. Can you just put us in your head? Like, where does that desire to be so active and you know, it gives you so much room to be wrong, but then when you're right, it does add to the lore of Bill Ackman, of which you have a lot. So how do you balance that? Where does it come from? Like, why in these moments do you just get so convicted that the that the conviction just has to spill out and then you're just so out there? Bill Ackman (00:08:34): So I've always been like my high school yearbook epithet was most verbose. Me too. And actually, my friend actually lives around here. His quote that he put next to my name in my yearbook, it says, A closed mouth gathers no foot. That was his. And so that's kind of what I've lived by. I've always had this sort of desire to speak the truth about things. And was just talking with Jake actually, we had breakfast this morning. And we're talking about my Rhonda post. Yeah. Remember that one? So, like, know, there's just certain things that need to be shared and discussed. But with respect to markets, I actually what happened was I was concerned about the country because I felt we needed to have basically a two week pause. This is March of February, I guess it was March 2020. And I assumed we were gonna just do a short term shutdown, let the virus cool down as hospitals were kinda getting overwhelmed. And the president hadn't done that yet. I was kind of surprised by this. And so that was what inspired me to go on TV as a way to reach president Trump and say, look, need to shut down the country just for two weeks. And I said, look, you do this. Okay? The virus will blow over. Stocks are at an incredibly cheap valuation. If we handle this correctly, you're gonna make a ton of money and we're buying. Valuation is like a tether on the market. When it gets too high, it's like this rubber band that's stretching and inevitably it bounces back, but it works the other way as well. When stocks get too cheap, there's this The rubber band is actually pulling valuations up. And so there are certain moments where it gets to that place. And sometimes actually, if you call that out, it causes people to have kind of a psychological reset. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:10:20): What happened recently that caused you to call that out? Bill Ackman (00:10:23): Stocks just got crazy cheap, Just incredibly cheap of really high quality companies. Right. I don't know. Don't know why. Jason Calacanis (00:10:30): Find extremely cheap in fundamentals. Bill Ackman (00:10:32): Fundamentals based on, you know, what's the value of a financial assets, the present value of the cash it generates over his life. On that basis, stocks are really high quality companies are really cheap. Jason Calacanis (00:10:41): Is there any way to underwrite? And I don't wanna pick on specific companies, but we have the three that are going public, and then you have like a Palantir, let's say. And these things have become very popular in pop culture, in retargeting on subreddits, on the public's consciousness, high net worth individuals wanting to buy into SPVs that are double loaded and then getting wiped off the cap tables. Is there any way to underwrite a 100 times revenue, 50 times revenue, a 150 times revenue in these companies? Or are these just tremendously overvalued because of the demand side? Bill Ackman (00:11:19): I think you underwrite a SpaceX the way you underwrite a venture capital investment. Jason Calacanis (00:11:24): Interesting. Explain that, unpack it. Bill Ackman (00:11:26): Everyone here invests in venture, right? You bet on who's running it, right? The talent is enormous. It's people They taught me I had a professor at business school, he said people, opportunity, context, deal. So on people, SpaceX One of one. Opportunity, one of one. Context, incredible and actually, know, feel bad for Blue Origin, but not harmful to SpaceX. The fact that, you know, they're they're Jason Calacanis (00:11:55): They're behind. Bill Ackman (00:11:56): Then you get to deal. Okay? That's the more complicated question for SpaceX. Again, we don't know what the valuation is gonna be, but if it's a billion a trillion $750,000,000,000, then you say, okay, well, let's think five years out. What does this company look like? What is Starlink? What's the trajectory of Starlink? SpaceX is near monopoly in terms of low cost space launch. That's gonna become increasingly important. And even Amazon is gonna have to become an even bigger customer because they're not in Blue Origin's, you know, time, I would say has become increasingly valuable in the AI era. Right? You delay a model. Were talking, David and I were talking about the administration and his kind of stepping in for the president not to sign that executive order to just kind of slow us down. Jason Calacanis (00:12:40): Allegedly. Bill Ackman (00:12:40): You lose a month, you lose a couple of months today and it means a lot. So I think the only question I have, and I haven't done the math. I actually invested in X. I invested in x AI. I'm in an SPV. Ron Baron said, Bill, you gotta invest in SpaceX. So I So I'm in So now I have So obviously I'm rooting for kind of a good outcome. I just I haven't done the Jason Calacanis (00:13:01): yeah, you have to What about Anthropic OpenAI Sorry. Anthropic OpenAI Palantir also fall into this category. Do you underwrite those as venture investments as well? And have you done the work on those? Bill Ackman (00:13:13): They're venture investments that do What's helpful is they're not seed or series a. They're DRE, but they're still like venture investments. These companies have proven they can generate a lot of revenues. And actually, what I was just saying on Sarah, I thought she had a very, very thoughtful explanation on how they think about committing capital. Right? And that's the thing I haven't heard from an OpenAI, which is why if I were OpenAI, I would be getting that message out. Because from the outside, it's a pretty interesting business model. You got a company that's spending, making capital commitments that are massively in excess of revenues. And how do you do that and get It's degree of difficulty, would say, is hard. David Sacks (00:13:52): Your perch on the boards of, let's call it, these more traditional Fortune 500 type businesses and your conversations with those CEOs, how are they thinking about AI? Is it something that they're tipping into with pilots? Are they doing transformation initiatives? Do they think this doesn't really apply to us, we'll deal with it later? What's your sense of how they're adopting or embracing AI? Bill Ackman (00:14:16): I would say every CEO in America today is like, how do I use AI? How does it apply to my business? How is it a threat? They gotta find an internal champion. They maybe have to recruit someone from the outside. I would say it's on the hierarchy of things they worry about, it's probably number one. As both an opportunity and a threat. So if you're not paying attention to it, your board is gonna be asking you the first question every meeting about how we're dealing with the AI threat, how are we dealing with the AI opportunity. So it's absolutely top of mind. David Sacks (00:14:46): Are you seeing much early success? I mean, your, again, through your visibility into these companies. I mean, there's a lot of mixed signals that we get, like McKinsey did a study and said that ninety five percent of enterprise initiatives actually fail. Jamath, you've made this point around '89 that a lot of these enterprises don't really know how to deploy AI. The fanciest title in Silicon Valley these days is a forward deployed engineer, which is basically a con like an IT consultant who can close the gap between the promise of AI and the ROI of it. And I think people are just trying to figure out how do we do we use this thing. I mean, have you seen much actual success? Is this the is this the question right now? Is this how do we bridge this gap? Bill Ackman (00:15:31): So I haven't seen much success other than I I'll give you the Pershing Square story. We're a tiny little company. How are we using AI today? The first use case is really on the legal side. And, know, kind of almost almost we call it compliance back office type functionality. I think we're still super, super early in terms of big companies using AI effectively. David Friedberg (00:15:54): Can I ask or test a thesis with you? You know, the the venture underwriting model where you think about people, you're underwriting a founder and their capacity to lead and redirect the organization in a changing environment, in technology environment, market environment, and whatnot. And we have seen repeatedly similar success at scale if the company is still founder led, where the founder feels like they have the authority to make all the radical decisions needed to make sure that that company persists and changes as needed in a changing environment. Have you looked at founder led companies versus non founder led companies where perhaps the founders really do have an inherent advantage in being able to navigate the changing environment and actually generate outsized returns over time? And I asked this particularly as it relates to the SaaS pocalypse. And if you take a look at the companies that are founder led today versus not, if you're not founder led, you have an incentive to not make a mistake and get fired. If you're founder led, you don't give a shit. Your job is to make sure the company. Bill Ackman (00:16:50): Yeah. I think the answer is exactly what you said. I think the problem is that the average life of an S and P five hundred CEO is probably, I don't know, four years or three year, three and a half years or something like this. And you're focused on, you know, kind of shorter term compensation. You don't generally don't have a big economic stake in the business. You're a founder. This is your entire life. It's your entire reputation. It's not like you're gonna go get another job. You you gotta kinda make it work. And also when you're in the boardroom, you have the authority of either being a major voting voice or you've got a huge economic stake in the company. When we joined a board of a company, we're often the largest or the largest non index fund type shareholder. That kind of gives us a little bit of a disproportionate voice in the boardroom. Imagine if you have that and you're CEO of the company. Right? So I think that does give you And also if you've gotten to be a successful founder over time, guaranteed that you've made a number of very challenging calls over time that turned out to be right. Otherwise you wouldn't be there. And so you look at Mark Zuckerberg, right? When he bought, I don't know, Instagram, everyone was like shocked at the price paid or WhatsApp. They seemed like, sort of outside the company only had whatever 19 employees or something when he paid a billion something. But you make enough of those calls and you can make the other challenging David Friedberg (00:18:03): Is this antithetical to a Ben Graham investing model? Like, you have to have a different set of skills as an investor to identify this talent for Jason Calacanis (00:18:11): Yeah. Bill Ackman (00:18:12): So I mean, Ben Graham is a really important voice for investors and that he said, look, you gotta think about a business. A stock certificate is an interest in a business as opposed to just this piece of paper. That's probably one of his most important aphorisms. But he was investing for the most part in liquidations. In the days of Ben Graham, where there weren't there's no Edgar system and in order to get a 10 k filing, you had to go to the headquarter of the company. There were lot of stocks trading basically the cash on the balance sheet. And his business model was buying these things at stupidly cheap prices and eventually But Ben Graham made most of his money investing in, I don't know, GEICO or something. Know, not Tell us Jason Calacanis (00:18:51): a little bit about, you know, there's this sort of activist and significant shareholder, but then there's Howard Hughes. And you've talked a little bit about Berkshire Hathaway two point o or just being inspired by that Chamophile. Were inspired by it for a long time. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:19:04): Oh, Bill just took Pershing Square public. Jason Calacanis (00:19:06): Yeah. But with with the Howard Hughes Corporation specifically, tell tell us about that effort because you're operating that business. Bill Ackman (00:19:13): There's a book. I think it's called the Financial History of Berkshire Hathaway. That's for geeks. Basically, this guy went back and read every 10 Q, whatever. Actually went through the filings, looked at every deal that Buffett ever did, and you follow him over sixty year period of time. And the vast majority of the value he created at Berkshire was through actually the ownership of insurance operation. And what's interesting about insurance is that running an insurance company, you have two jobs. One is you write business, you take risk, you collect premiums in exchange for the obligation to pay future claims. And then you get that, you get money upfront and responsibility is to invest that money. The vast majority of insurance companies focus only on the liability side of the balance sheet. Buffett was really the first to do focus on actually more on the asset side of the balance sheet than on the liability side. And over time on that liability side, if manage the assets of an insurance company well and the liabilities well, you can build this enormously profitable compounding tax efficient machine over time. And the question is why haven't other people done this? And the answer is if you're really good at investing, you go work for a hedge fund, you go work for Fidelity, you go work for Wellington, but you don't go work for an insurance company. So the insurance company's ability to recruit investment talent is very limited. Buffett owned half the company. He was really good at investing, is why it worked. So what we're doing is we're Buffett started with a crappy textile company, effectively liquidated it over time, reinvested in insurance, and then invested the assets well. Howard Hughes is actually a really interesting company, but it's a business that Wall Street has not cared about for a long period of time. We created it out of the bankruptcy of of General Growth. Bill Ackman (00:20:56): It was a spin off of all the other assets. And it's a company that owns these small cities. So I bet a lot of people here have heard of Summerlin because a lot of the tech community has moved from California to Las Vegas. But we own this small city, 26,000 acres of land. We own all the commercial land. We own all the residential land. We sell lots of home builders. We build a downtown. We build buildings. It's a bit like the Irvine company. Don Brand created probably a $100,000,000,000 of personal wealth managing a small city. So super cool company, but the time frame is decades as opposed to quarters. So Wall Street's never cared, it's always traded at a huge discount. So Buffett bought into a textile business at a discount to liquidation value. At $63 a share, you're owning Howard Hughes at a discount to liquidation value. What we're doing is instead of reinvesting all the cash the business generates into real estate, we're gonna reinvest all the cash into insurance within the next week or Chamath Palihapitiya (00:21:52): You're in the business of building this flywheel. Bill Ackman (00:21:54): We're gonna build this into a compounding machine over the next fifty years. It's something I've always wanted to do. And we have the benefit of understanding both the insurance side of the business and we can manage the assets well. And you can buy it at whatever, 60¢ on the dollar. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:22:08): And how do you think about investing the assets of this insurance company? Bill Ackman (00:22:11): So what Buffett did is he took a 100% of the insurance float and put the money in short term treasuries. So he took no risk on kind of policyholder funds. And took a 100% of the surplus of the insurer, the equity, and invest in common stocks. And that's what we're gonna do. And I think we can build a really profitable insurance company. We're starting at a very small scale. The company's got like a $4,000,000,000 market cap. And the goal is to build it into a trillion dollar thing over time. Compounding. The other thing Buffett did well is that he didn't issue any stock or not for a very long time. So they you know, he started with a million shares and today is effectively like a million Chamath Palihapitiya (00:22:43): and And this is the future for very talented managers like yourself versus long short fund, do you think they sit I side by Bill Ackman (00:22:51): think it's hard to do this because you need control of a public company, and you have to be not in a get rich quick mindset. And if you're in the get rich quick, it's easy to go to Citadel or Millennium or one of these. David Friedberg (00:23:02): Why does it have to be public? Bill Ackman (00:23:04): Why does it have to be public? It doesn't doesn't have to be public. David Friedberg (00:23:07): Why did you choose to Bill Ackman (00:23:09): take it? We got here by accident. So the most successful equity investment we've ever made is we bought this company called General Growth. We bought the stock of a company going bankrupt. Sort of the most contrarian investment you can make. Stock went from $20,000,000,000 market cap to $100,000,000 and we bought basically a third of the company or 27% of the company at $200,000,000,000 market cap. There's 27,000,000,000 of debt and the bankruptcy emerge. And the strategy we said is, look, the assets are worth more than liabilities. We're gonna do the first restructuring where the equity gets to keep their investment in the company. Two years later, emerged from chapter 11, the stock went from 34¢ to $34 But part of the restructuring was spinning off this thing called Howard Hughes. And it was really all of the junk that didn't belong in the company that the analysts hated. And so we did it, it's sort of an inadvertent investment. And fifteen years later, we haven't really created much value with it. So we said, look, we've got The market doesn't like this thing. A company has to earn a return in excess of its cost of capital in order for a stock to go up. And the you know, Elon's done an amazing job keeping the cost of capital of this company is really low. You know, SpaceX goes public at a trillion $750,000,000,000, it'll probably be the lowest cost of capital, equity capital transaction in the history of the world. The problem with this company because it's real estate, because it's development, because it's land ownership, the market says the cost of capital is really high and you can only earn a certain return on real estate. So what we're doing is we're repurposing the real estate assets and we're transforming the company into a much higher returning. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:24:40): Business. The last few years you've become incredibly famous. I mean, to kind of put a fine point on the word. How does that change and influence the way that markets work? Because like, you know, your voice gets amplified now. You also have other places where other voices get heard, many people whose names you don't even know. You go into Wall Street Bets, it's every random Tom, Dick, and Harry with an opinion. Tell us the way the markets have changed with notoriety, fame, social media influence, not just yours, but in general. Bill Ackman (00:25:09): Yeah. I don't think markets have changed as a result of anything that's happened with me or follower growth on on Twitter. I think the Ryan Cohen guy, you know, the GameStop guy. Yeah. That is a change in markets when a stock can trade at a valuation well above its value simply on the personality the ability Vibes. To Vibes. To gather up armies of followers. The fascinating thing about liquidity and valuation is the higher a stock price goes, and it's gonna sound sort of intuitive, but it's not, the more valuable the company becomes. You know, there's actually the increase in value of the company increases the value of the company. Right? Because it lowers the cost of capital, it gives you more flexibility, gives you the ability to issue stock, raise capital, acquire other businesses. And so, getting back to the Elon example, it's really his I mean, I would say he's a better example of this. We've not taken advantage of this at all. Maybe we should. But he builds an army of believers and that enabled Tesla to be built Chamath Palihapitiya (00:26:23): me end as we wrap up with a somewhat of a pointed question. You're an incredible investor. If there are people, if we want to be maximally aligned with Bill Ackman, is the best way to be an LP in Pershing Square or is it best to go into the market and buy So we Bill Ackman (00:26:40): have two I think there are three ways you can invest with us that are all different and will achieve different things. One is something called Pershing Square, which is the management company of Pershing Square. I think it's one of the most interesting kind of intellectually businesses because it's a it's the entity that receives fees on these three permanent capital vehicles we manage. It's a royalty on the compounding of investments in these entities, and there's no CapEx in the business. So we're gonna pay out basically all of our profits, and we're gonna grow as quickly as the underlying assets compound. If you invested a dollar in Pershing Square twenty two years ago, that became I should note this number. It's like 27 or 28 times net of all sales. Wow. Okay? Over over twenty two years. Had we charged the fees of this public vehicle, that number would have been 37 times. I'm sorry. No. More in the something in the mid forties. Okay. What this means is we now have a public vehicle that charges only a 2% fee. We've got one in London that charges an incentive fee. If we compounded the rates we have historically, we'll have 35 times the assets under management in twenty two years. So we'll go from 25,000,000,000 of assets to something approaching a trillion. We don't have to hire another person, and we don't have to spend another dollar if you will on overhead. That's a pretty interesting business. So I like that one. So Pershing Square. If wanna invest with us as an investor, invest in something called PSUS. You own a portfolio of our best ideas and it's trading at an 18% discount to cash. You wanna believe that we can build the next Berkshire Hathaway, you own Howard Hughes. And we got three different ways. Jason Calacanis (00:28:20): Yeah. I've got some Howard Hughes. I think following you on Twitter and going the going direct movement does allow you to communicate directly your vision. And and that actually makes it much easier to to place the bet. And so I I do think it has a profound impact because prior to your extremely long tweets that have been parodied now, there's an incredible meme of a Bill Ackman tweet coming in, which is But you you did that extended iPhone that's Bill Ackman (00:28:48): a foot tall. No. Was That was my Halloween costume. Jason Calacanis (00:28:50): Yes. That's for for for Bill Ackman (00:28:52): last You Jason Calacanis (00:28:53): would have written something shorter. You just didn't have the time. Yeah? Bill Ackman (00:28:57): Yeah. I guess. I don't let other people read, you know Do Chamath Palihapitiya (00:29:00): you do you like have Bill Ackman (00:29:02): I write Jason Calacanis (00:29:02): all my own anybody stuff. Read it? Bill Ackman (00:29:04): On the the Rhonda tweet, which had some legal implications, I did have my communications guy and a lawyer. Yep. A friend who's a lawyer read it. But I only gave him a few minutes because I was so excited. Once I write something David Friedberg (00:29:15): I really like, I just want Yeah. Yeah. I I I agree. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:29:18): I agree. And the torpedoes. David Friedberg (00:29:21): Everyone does this too. He starts getting a little bit frantic when he's writing something, and then he's like, it. He just hits there. I just hit that. Bill Ackman (00:29:27): By the way, it's a very powerful thing to be able to share your view and push a button and reach 2,000,000 people. I'll I'll have to why don't we just take picture on stage and I'll send it out? Chamath Palihapitiya (00:29:35): Yeah. Liquidity. You've gone all in? David Friedberg (00:29:39): Alright. Alright. Chamath Palihapitiya (00:29:40): Good luck. Good luck. Thank you.

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